Eerste Divisie20°33,5 mm25 km/h

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    RodaRodaPossession control
    2–2
    NAC BredaNAC BredaPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · Roda (39%)

    Roda – NAC Breda · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Roda 39%X 26%35% NAC Breda · 2

    Analysis: Roda – NAC Breda

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Possession is the name of the game for Roda, who are set to host NAC Breda in a clash that pivots around contrasting playing styles. The hosts, emphasizing control, face off against a Breda squad that thrives on high pressing. This tactical divergence sets the stage for a contest where Roda's ability to manage tempo could determine the flow and outcome of the match.

    The expected goals model gives Roda a slight nod, projecting them at 1.67 xG compared to Breda’s 1.47. This edge is further supported by Roda’s superior defensive metrics, with an xGA per match of 0.86, a significant advantage over Breda's 1.3. Yet, when it comes to exploiting transitional opportunities, Breda excels with a higher xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball, at 0.29 against Roda's 0.12.

    These figures suggest that Breda will likely press high and look to capitalize on quick turnovers, while Roda will attempt to dictate play and guard against rapid counter-attacks. The model’s probabilities lean towards the hosts, granting them a 39% chance of victory, while the draw sits at 26% and a Breda win at 35%. With rain of 15.0 mm expected, both sides' approaches could be tested in what promises to be a tightly contested battle.

    Bookmakers seem to undervalue Roda. The odds of 2.85 for a home win offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a noteworthy opportunity. With an 11% edge against the model's evaluation, this bet stands out as the sharpest angle for savvy punters. As the rain pours down and strategies clash, backing Roda at these odds could yield more than just sporting excitement.

    RodaRoda
    Form DLLWW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #9xP/match #2Points #6
    Key players
    • Joshua NisbetLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.16
    • Lucas BeertenCBxG 0.22 · xT 0.06
    • Cain SeedorfRWxG 0.12 · xT 0.06
    NAC BredaNAC Breda
    Form DDWLW
    League ranking xG #7xGA #10xT #4xP/match #10Points #7
    Key players
    • Leo GreimlCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.30
    • Paul GladonFxG 0.58 · xT 0.11
    • Jan Van Den BerghCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.13
    Final score
    2 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Roda 39% · Draw 26% · NAC Breda 35%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Roda JCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,89fair 6,75+32 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - NAC BredaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 6,24fair 8,71-28 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Roda – NAC Breda

    Predicted score matrix

    NAC Breda →
    Roda →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.7%
    0–16.1%
    0–24.7%
    0–32.3%
    0–4+1.2%
    1
    1–06.9%
    1–111.0%
    1–27.8%
    1–33.8%
    1–4+1.9%
    2
    2–06.0%
    2–18.9%
    2–26.5%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+1.6%
    3
    3–03.4%
    3–14.9%
    3–23.6%
    3–31.8%
    3–4+0.9%
    4+
    4+–02.0%
    4+–13.0%
    4+–22.2%
    4+–31.1%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.2-27%
    Expected goals
    1,67–1,47
    Both teams to score
    63%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,539%
    @2.12
    Over 2,561%
    @1.68EV+2%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Roda or draw (1X)66%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.82

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Roda or draw (1X)66%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Joey Paul Müller to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score63%
    • Over 2.5 goals61%
    • Joey Paul Müller to score24%
    • Maximilien Balard to be booked20%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · Roda39% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
    • 1 · Roda39% probability@3.05BetssonEV+19%reference odds
    • 1 · Roda39% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+19%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · RodaX2 · NAC Breda
    Betsafe
    EV+ 19%
    3.05    		3.402.15
    Betsson
    EV+ 19%
    3.05    		3.402.15
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 19%
    3.05    		3.402.15

    Odds updated 28 Aug, 10:44

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 2.32 to 2.12 (−9%).

    1-3 %
    37 %27 %

    3.15 → 3.05

    X-6 %
    31 %21 %

    3.60 → 3.40

    2+3 %
    46 %36 %

    2.08 → 2.15

    Over 2,5+8 %
    63 %53 %

    1.55 → 1.68

    Betsson · 16 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Roda
    NAC Breda
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Roda (3–2)
    NAC Breda (5–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Roda
    Marco Tol: 152 passningar, xT 0.27TolLucas Beerten: 140 passningar, xT 0.16BeertenKoen Jansen: 132 passningar, xT 1.13JansenDyon Dorenbosch: 118 passningar, xT 0.02DorenboschJustin Treichel: 117 passningar, xT 0.04TreichelJérôme Déom: 87 passningar, xT 0.28DéomMitchel Paulissen: 80 passningar, xT 0.18PaulissenJoshua Nisbet: 77 passningar, xT 0.27NisbetXander van den Berg: 48 passningar, xT 0.53BergCain Seedorf: 41 passningar, xT 0.1SeedorfAnthony Van Den Hurk: 39 passningar, xT -0.42Hurk
    NAC Breda
    Jan Van Den Bergh: 188 passningar, xT 0.41BerghLeo Greiml: 186 passningar, xT 0.53GreimlMohamed Nassoh: 180 passningar, xT 1NassohFredrik Oldrup Jensen: 144 passningar, xT 0.7JensenRio Hillen: 114 passningar, xT -0.07HillenCherrion Valerius: 96 passningar, xT 0.2ValeriusMichael Robin Verrips: 78 passningar, xT 0.2VerripsMax Balard: 71 passningar, xT 0.17BalardJannes Van Hecke: 57 passningar, xT 0.15HeckeCharles-Andreas Louis Joseph Latif Brym: 42 passningar, xT 0.08BrymImran Nazih: 42 passningar, xT 0.46Nazih
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Roda
    Marco Tol: 152 passningar, xT 0.27TolLucas Beerten: 140 passningar, xT 0.16BeertenKoen Jansen: 132 passningar, xT 1.13JansenDyon Dorenbosch: 118 passningar, xT 0.02DorenboschJustin Treichel: 117 passningar, xT 0.04TreichelJérôme Déom: 87 passningar, xT 0.28DéomMitchel Paulissen: 80 passningar, xT 0.18PaulissenJoshua Nisbet: 77 passningar, xT 0.27NisbetXander van den Berg: 48 passningar, xT 0.53BergCain Seedorf: 41 passningar, xT 0.1SeedorfAnthony Van Den Hurk: 39 passningar, xT -0.42Hurk
    NAC Breda
    Jan Van Den Bergh: 188 passningar, xT 0.41BerghLeo Greiml: 186 passningar, xT 0.53GreimlMohamed Nassoh: 180 passningar, xT 1NassohFredrik Oldrup Jensen: 144 passningar, xT 0.7JensenRio Hillen: 114 passningar, xT -0.07HillenCherrion Valerius: 96 passningar, xT 0.2ValeriusMichael Robin Verrips: 78 passningar, xT 0.2VerripsMax Balard: 71 passningar, xT 0.17BalardJannes Van Hecke: 57 passningar, xT 0.15HeckeCharles-Andreas Louis Joseph Latif Brym: 42 passningar, xT 0.08BrymImran Nazih: 42 passningar, xT 0.46Nazih

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceRodaNAC Breda
    Points66
    xPoints5.74
    xG per match1.81.8
    xGA per match0.861.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.120.29
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.180.35
    Playing styleRodaNAC Breda
    Build-up efficiency0.30.3
    Field tilt0.480.77
    xT per match1.31.8
    xTA per match1.10.8
    Won balls, offensive half2432
    Pressing intensity0.210.23
    Pressing efficiency0.320.38
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.37
    Entries into the box per match1417
    Entries into the box against138
    Pass completion %0.770.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.730.71
    Passes per match380438
    Passes against per match331230
    Switches of play per match16.130.5
    Long balls per match2943
    Set piecesRodaNAC Breda
    xG from free kicks0.110.14
    Corners per match4.38
    Corners against per match2.72.6
    xG per corner0.070.04
    xGA per corner against0.030.07
    First touch, offensive corners %0.540.29
    First touch, defensive corners %0.620.5
    OtherRodaNAC Breda
    Throw-in control0.70.85
    The goalkeepersJustin Treichel (Roda)Michael Robin Verrips (NAC Breda)
    Saves138
    Save %93%62%
    xG prevented86%58%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Roda
    Fixtures, form & tips
    NAC Breda
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Roda vs NAC Breda according to our model?

    The model gives Roda a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Roda 39%, draw 26%, NAC Breda 35%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.