Eerste Divisie18°20,5 mm21 km/h

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    VolendamVolendamPossession control
    6–1
    DordrechtDordrechtPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Volendam (43%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.32 (+11 %)

    Volendam – Dordrecht · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Volendam 43%X 28%29% Dordrecht · 2

    Analysis: Volendam – Dordrecht

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Volendam host Dordrecht with the numbers tilting slightly in favor of the home side, who have a 43% chance to win according to the model. Yet, it's far from a straightforward prediction. The weather forecast of 19.4 mm of rain could dampen the action, which might tilt the balance towards fewer goals. This is already accounted for in the model, which predicts a rather narrow outcome.

    Despite Volendam's impressive 80% home win rate, their recent form doesn't paint the same commanding picture. Dordrecht edge them in points and expected points, with a slight advantage in both xG and xGA per match. The head-to-head record, albeit limited to two games, offers little to separate the sides with each claiming a win. It's clear that the visitors are not to be underestimated despite their underdog status.

    With both teams favoring possession control, a tactical battle may ensue. The model's most likely scorelines hover around low-scoring results, with 1-1 being the top pick at 12%. The expected goals suggest a closely fought contest, with Volendam at 1.48 and Dordrecht at 1.29. While the over 2.5 goals probability sits at 52%, the potential for a cagey encounter remains high due to the conditions.

    The sharpest angle here lies with the under 2.5 goals market. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet offer odds of 2.38, presenting a 14% value edge as per the model's 48% estimate. This potential undervaluation gives punters a tempting opportunity to capitalize on what could be a rainy, tightly contested affair.

    VolendamVolendam
    Form WLLWL
    League ranking xG #15xGA #9xT #16xP/match #13Points #12
    Key players
    • Nordin BukalaFxG 0.01 · xT 0.00
    • Luca BlondeauCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.04
    • Nick DoodemanRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.35
    DordrechtDordrecht
    Form LLWDL
    League ranking xG #12xGA #3xT #7xP/match #11Points #9
    Key players
    • Ayoub OuarghiFxG 0.33 · xT 0.21
    • Senne VugtsRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.18
    • Nick VenemaRWxG 0.08 · xT 0.36
    Final score
    6 – 1
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Volendam 43% · Draw 28% · Dordrecht 29%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - DordrechtBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 8,68fair 11,47-24 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - FC VolendamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,03fair 8,75-43 %
    Hit

    Match prediction: Volendam – Dordrecht

    Predicted score matrix

    Dordrecht →
    Volendam →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.7%
    0–17.8%
    0–25.2%
    0–32.2%
    0–4+1.0%
    1
    1–09.0%
    1–112.3%
    1–27.7%
    1–33.3%
    1–4+1.4%
    2
    2–06.9%
    2–18.8%
    2–25.7%
    2–32.4%
    2–4+1.0%
    3
    3–03.4%
    3–14.4%
    3–22.8%
    3–31.2%
    3–4+0.5%
    4+
    4+–01.7%
    4+–12.2%
    4+–21.4%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-09%
    3. 3.2-19%
    4. 4.0-18%
    5. 5.1-28%
    Expected goals
    1,48–1,29
    Both teams to score
    56%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,548%
    @2.32EV+11%
    Over 2,552%
    @1.55

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Volendam or draw (1X)67%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.93

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Volendam or draw (1X)67%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Brandley Mack-Olien Kuwas to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score56%
    • Over 2.5 goals52%
    • Brandley Mack-Olien Kuwas to score26%
    • Lawson Connery Sunderland to be booked25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.548% probability@2.32BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
    • Under 2.548% probability@2.32BetssonEV+11%reference odds
    • Under 2.548% probability@2.32NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · VolendamX2 · Dordrecht
    Betsafe1.983.45
    EV+ 3%
    3.55
    Betsson1.983.45
    EV+ 3%
    3.55
    Nordicbet1.983.45
    EV+ 3%
    3.55

    Odds updated 28 Aug, 11:38

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an Dordrecht win since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 3.95 to 3.55 (−10%).

    1+9 %
    53 %43 %

    1.82 → 1.98

    X-4 %
    31 %21 %

    3.60 → 3.45

    2-10 %
    31 %21 %

    3.95 → 3.55

    Over 2,5+2 %
    65 %55 %

    1.52 → 1.55

    Betsson · 14 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    2 matches
    Volendam 1Draw 0Dordrecht 1
    Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 3,5)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • FC Volendam win 80% of their home matches all-time (20 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Volendam
    Dordrecht
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Volendam (5–4)
    Dordrecht (4–4)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Volendam
    Precious Joel Uche-Chukwu Ugwu: 154 passningar, xT 0.2UgwuDaan Huisman: 118 passningar, xT 0.15HuismanRoy Johannes Maria Steur: 113 passningar, xT 0.2SteurMawouna Amevor: 93 passningar, xT 0.12AmevorErik Schouten: 92 passningar, xT 0.29SchoutenLuca Blondeau: 88 passningar, xT 0.08BlondeauNordin Bukala: 87 passningar, xT 0.03BukalaNick Doodeman: 62 passningar, xT 1.02DoodemanKayden Wolff: 45 passningar, xT 0.3WolffDéron Payne: 36 passningar, xT 0.03PayneReuven Niemeijer: 31 passningar, xT 0.07Niemeijer
    Dordrecht
    Jaden Pinas: 142 passningar, xT 0.14PinasCalvin Owen Harm Raatsie: 129 passningar, xT 0.19RaatsieSenne Vugts: 111 passningar, xT 0.54VugtsAdil Lechkar: 109 passningar, xT 0.07LechkarAyoub Ouarghi: 106 passningar, xT 0.44OuarghiSem Valk: 92 passningar, xT 0.05ValkYannis M'Bemba: 83 passningar, xT 0.18M'BembaBeni Christophe Mpanzu: 73 passningar, xT 0.26MpanzuNick Venema: 72 passningar, xT 0.98VenemaJurre Van Aken: 60 passningar, xT 0.37AkenMartin Vetkal: 41 passningar, xT 0.17Vetkal
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Volendam
    Precious Joel Uche-Chukwu Ugwu: 154 passningar, xT 0.2UgwuDaan Huisman: 118 passningar, xT 0.15HuismanRoy Johannes Maria Steur: 113 passningar, xT 0.2SteurMawouna Amevor: 93 passningar, xT 0.12AmevorErik Schouten: 92 passningar, xT 0.29SchoutenLuca Blondeau: 88 passningar, xT 0.08BlondeauNordin Bukala: 87 passningar, xT 0.03BukalaNick Doodeman: 62 passningar, xT 1.02DoodemanKayden Wolff: 45 passningar, xT 0.3WolffDéron Payne: 36 passningar, xT 0.03PayneReuven Niemeijer: 31 passningar, xT 0.07Niemeijer
    Dordrecht
    Jaden Pinas: 142 passningar, xT 0.14PinasCalvin Owen Harm Raatsie: 129 passningar, xT 0.19RaatsieSenne Vugts: 111 passningar, xT 0.54VugtsAdil Lechkar: 109 passningar, xT 0.07LechkarAyoub Ouarghi: 106 passningar, xT 0.44OuarghiSem Valk: 92 passningar, xT 0.05ValkYannis M'Bemba: 83 passningar, xT 0.18M'BembaBeni Christophe Mpanzu: 73 passningar, xT 0.26MpanzuNick Venema: 72 passningar, xT 0.98VenemaJurre Van Aken: 60 passningar, xT 0.37AkenMartin Vetkal: 41 passningar, xT 0.17Vetkal

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceVolendamDordrecht
    Points34
    xPoints3.63.9
    xG per match1.11.3
    xGA per match1.30.95
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.060.18
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.020.16
    Playing styleVolendamDordrecht
    Build-up efficiency0.310.31
    Field tilt0.480.62
    xT per match11.4
    xTA per match0.960.76
    Won balls, offensive half2426
    Pressing intensity0.230.24
    Pressing efficiency0.290.32
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.270.26
    Entries into the box per match1116
    Entries into the box against1111
    Pass completion %0.750.79
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.72
    Passes per match365393
    Passes against per match345274
    Switches of play per match29.131.8
    Long balls per match3856
    Set piecesVolendamDordrecht
    xG from free kicks0.210.13
    Corners per match3.76.7
    Corners against per match7.43.4
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.010.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.360.45
    First touch, defensive corners %0.730.4
    OtherVolendamDordrecht
    Throw-in control0.790.78
    The goalkeepersRoy Johannes Maria Steur (Volendam)Calvin Owen Harm Raatsie (Dordrecht)
    Saves1012
    Save %77%75%
    xG prevented50%55%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Volendam
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Dordrecht
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Volendam vs Dordrecht according to our model?

    The model gives Volendam a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Volendam 43%, draw 28%, Dordrecht 29%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.