Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar · Eredivisie

TEXT: Four recent head-to-head encounters between Ajax and AZ have failed to yield a single win for Ajax, with two draws and two losses. While this might sound alarming for Ajax fans, it's crucial to remember that a sample of four matches is small and less telling than current form and expected goals. Ajax may not have had the upper hand in these recent meetings, but they are riding a five-match unbeaten streak in the league and have found the net in 11 consecutive outings, suggesting they could turn the tables this time.

Ajax's model probabilities underscore their edge, giving them a 48% chance of victory compared to AZ’s 25%. Despite trailing by two points in the standings, Ajax leads on expected points, 16.5 to 15.9, highlighting some underperformance in actual results. The hosts also boast a strong all-time home win rate of 57%, which adds a touch of optimism for Ajax supporters. This clash is elevated by both teams employing a possession-based, high-press style, likely ensuring an intense midfield battle.

With expected goals of 1.64 for Ajax and 1.55 for AZ, goals seem likely, though the model highlights a 64% chance of both teams scoring and a 62% probability for over 2.5 goals. However, three of the most likely scorelines—1-1, 2-1, and 1-2—point toward a tightly contested match. The market's current odds reflect some potential value in this scenario, particularly for those looking at lower total goals.

The sharpest angle comes in the form of two value bets with LeoVegas: the draw at odds of 4.1, offering an 11% edge, and the under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.75, providing a 6% edge. For those inclined towards a riskier play, the under 2.5 at odds of 2.75 also presents a 5% edge. Given the dynamics and numbers, a 1-1 draw appears the most plausible outcome, with a lean toward the under 2.5 goals.