01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Groningen to win49%
- Over 1.5 goals85%
EredivisieEuroborg, Groningen
Läs på svenska
GroningenBalanced & physicalvs
Sparta RotterdamCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Groningen (49%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.50 (+19 %)
Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam · Eredivisie
1 · Groningen 49%X 27%25% Sparta Rotterdam · 2
49%
27%
25%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Groningen win 49%, draw 27%, Sparta Rotterdam win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Groningen 2.06, Sparta Rotterdam 1.32. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%. Double chance: Groningen or draw 75%, Sparta Rotterdam or draw 51%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.
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Analysis: Groningen – Sparta Rotterdam
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Groningen's ability to find the back of the net in nine consecutive league matches is a compelling factor as they prepare to host Sparta Rotterdam. Despite their recent form in scoring, the head-to-head record since 2022 leans heavily towards the visitors. With a small sample size of just four matches, Sparta has claimed victory three times. However, this historical edge may not be as decisive given the current dynamics and probabilities at play.
The model suggests Groningen holds a 49% chance of victory, supported by their slightly better points total this season. Yet, the expected goals tell a different story, indicating Sparta may have the sharper attacking presence with 1.7 xG per match compared to Groningen's 1.5. Defensively, though, Groningen appears marginally more solid, conceding 1.9 xGA per match to Sparta's 2.0.
The most likely scorelines, with 1-1 and 2-1 both at 10%, suggest a tight contest. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 66%, fueled by both teams’ scoring tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities. However, given their contrasting styles—Groningen's balanced approach versus Sparta's reliance on counter-attacks and crosses—the outcome may hinge on who better exploits the other's weaknesses.
From a betting perspective, there's substantial value in backing the draw at odds of 4.5 with LeoVegas, given the model's 27% probability against the market's pricing. Similarly, an away win at odds of 4.8 offers an 18% edge, reflecting decent value if Sparta can replicate their head-to-head success.
In terms of a score prediction, a 1-1 draw aligns with the model's forecast and the perceived value in betting markets. While Groningen's physicality could unsettle Sparta, the visitors' counter-attacking prowess might be just enough to salvage a point. Keep an eye on the odds for the draw—it's the sharpest angle in a match that could easily swing either way.
GroningenForm DDWWL
League ranking xG #9xGA #12xT #9xP/match #13Points #7
Key players
- Thom van BergenCAMxG 0.56 · xT 0.13
- David van der WerffFxG 0.20 · xT 0.20
- Brynjolfur WillumssonFxG 0.33 · xT -0.01
Sparta RotterdamForm DLLDW
League ranking xG #8xGA #14xT #7xP/match #12Points #13
Key players
- Milan ZonneveldFxG 0.63 · xT 0.01
- Lushendry MartesRBxG 0.13 · xT 0.20
- Isaac BabadiLWxG 0.15 · xT 0.38
Match prediction: Groningen – Sparta Rotterdam
Predicted score matrix
Sparta Rotterdam →
Groningen →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–03.7%
0–14.2%
0–23.0%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–06.8%
1–19.6%
1–26.1%
1–32.7%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–07.2%
2–19.5%
2–26.3%
2–32.8%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–05.0%
3–16.5%
3–24.3%
3–31.9%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–04.1%
4+–15.4%
4+–23.6%
4+–31.6%
4+–4+0.7%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.2-07%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,06–1,32
Both teams to score
64%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,40
111%
220%
322%
418%
5+25%
Under 2,534%
@2.90EV+0%
Over 2,566%
@1.40
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Groningen to win49%
- Over 2.5 goals66%
- Thom van Bergen to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score64%
- Over 2.5 goals66%
- Thom van Bergen to score30%
- Julian Baas to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw27% probability@4.50LeoVegasEV+19%reference odds
- 2 · Sparta Rotterdam25% probability@4.80LeoVegasEV+18%reference odds
- X · Draw27% probability@4.14BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Groningen | X | 2 · Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.69 | EV+ 10% 4.14 | EV+ 4% 4.23 |
| LeoVegas | 1.58 | EV+ 19% 4.50 | EV+ 18% 4.80 |
| Nordicbet | 1.69 | EV+ 10% 4.14 | EV+ 4% 4.23 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 07:38
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesGroningen 1Draw 0Sparta Rotterdam 3
Goals: 1–5 (⌀ 1,5)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Key facts
- Groningen have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Groningen (22–19)
Sparta Rotterdam (16–22)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 9 |
| xPoints | 11.2 | 11.3 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.9 | 2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 360 | 320 |
| Passes against per match | 374 | 411 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.7 | 28.3 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 40 |
| Set pieces | Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 6.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.5 |
| Other | Groningen | Sparta Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Etienne Vaessen (Groningen) | Michael Brouwer (Sparta Rotterdam) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 32 | 22 |
| Save % | 64% | 61% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 49% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam according to our model?
The model gives Groningen a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Groningen 49%, draw 27%, Sparta Rotterdam 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
The model expects 2.06 goals (xG) for Groningen and 1.32 for Sparta Rotterdam, 3.37 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Groningen or draw (1X) 75%, Sparta Rotterdam or draw (X2) 51% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.