EredivisieMAC3PARK Stadion, Zwolle

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    PEC ZwollePEC ZwolleLow block & direct
    vs
    ADO Den HaagADO Den HaagLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · PEC Zwolle (36%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · ADO Den Haag @ 2.90 (+5 %)

    PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag · Eredivisie

    1 · PEC Zwolle 36%X 28%36% ADO Den Haag · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag (Eredivisie, Sunday, 1 November 2026): PEC Zwolle win 36%, draw 28%, ADO Den Haag win 36%. Expected goals (xG): PEC Zwolle 1.37, ADO Den Haag 1.45. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: PEC Zwolle or draw 64%, ADO Den Haag or draw 64%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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    Analysis: PEC Zwolle – ADO Den Haag

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    The model sees PEC Zwolle and ADO Den Haag as evenly matched, each with a 36% chance of victory, yet leans slightly towards Zwolle. Despite the hosts being a point ahead in the table and having a better xPoints tally (8.9 to 7.4), the expected goals tell a different story. Den Haag edges ahead with 1.45 xG compared to Zwolle's 1.37, indicating potential for a narrow away victory.

    Both teams play a style that prioritizes a low defensive block paired with direct attacking, suggesting a match likely characterized by swift counterattacks rather than prolonged possession. The most likely scorelines reflect a tight affair, with 1-1 leading at 12% and slim margins elsewhere. The over 2.5 goals probability at 53% aligns closely with the inclination for both teams to score (57%), yet the numbers suggest goals might be hard to come by given the low xG per match.

    Despite Zwolle's slight advantage in points and xG metrics, Den Haag's defense might just tip the scales. The visitors have a superior xGA of 2.0 compared to Zwolle's 2.2, hinting at a slight defensive edge. There's value in siding with Den Haag at odds of 2.9 with LeoVegas, given the model's 36% win probability, which offers a 5% edge over the bookmakers.

    The under 3.5 goals market at 1.5 odds holds some appeal with a 3% edge, but for those eyeing sharper angles, the under 2.5 at odds of 2.2 with a 2% edge could be worth considering, especially if the defenses hold firm. As the teams prepare to clash, the numbers suggest a 1-1 draw might be the most fitting outcome, with the potential for Den Haag to edge it 1-2.

    PEC ZwollePEC Zwolle
    Form DLLLW
    League ranking xG #16xGA #17xT #16xP/match #16Points #15
    Key players
    • Simon GravesCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.08
    • Ryan Jared ThomasCMxG 0.04 · xT 0.12
    • Koen KostonsFxG 0.25 · xT 0.07
    ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag
    Form LLDDW
    League ranking xG #17xGA #13xT #15xP/match #18Points #17
    Key players
    • Juho KiloCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.17
    • Pascal MulderCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
    • Milan HokkeCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.13

    Match prediction: PEC Zwolle – ADO Den Haag

    Predicted score matrix

    ADO Den Haag →
    PEC Zwolle →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.3%
    0–18.3%
    0–26.2%
    0–33.0%
    0–4+1.5%
    1
    1–07.8%
    1–112.2%
    1–28.6%
    1–34.1%
    1–4+2.1%
    2
    2–05.6%
    2–18.1%
    2–25.9%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+1.4%
    3
    3–02.6%
    3–13.7%
    3–22.7%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–01.2%
    4+–11.7%
    4+–21.2%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-18%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.1-08%
    Expected goals
    1,37–1,45
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @2.24EV+4%
    Over 2,553%
    @1.60

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance PEC Zwolle or draw (1X)61%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    47%

    Fair odds

    2.12

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance PEC Zwolle or draw (1X)61%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Dylan Mbayo to score16%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Yannick Fereira Eduardo to score26%
    • Nick Fichtinger to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · ADO Den Haag36% probability@2.90LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
    • Under 2.547% probability@2.24BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    • Under 2.547% probability@2.24NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · PEC ZwolleX2 · ADO Den Haag
    Betsafe2.253.59
    EV+ 4%
    2.88
    LeoVegas2.303.60
    EV+ 5%
    2.90
    Nordicbet2.253.59
    EV+ 4%
    2.88

    Odds updated 24 Oct, 07:38

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    PEC Zwolle
    ADO Den Haag
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    PEC Zwolle (10–22)
    ADO Den Haag (11–20)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    PEC Zwolle
    Nick Viergever: 212 passningar, xT 0.2ViergeverSimon Graves: 206 passningar, xT 0.41GravesTobias Sommer Sørensen: 151 passningar, xT 0.44SørensenJasper Schendelaar: 146 passningar, xT 0.18SchendelaarOlivier Aertssen: 123 passningar, xT 0.27AertssenSherel Floranus: 122 passningar, xT 0.09FloranusRyan Jared Thomas: 91 passningar, xT 0.46ThomasDylan Mbayo: 78 passningar, xT 0.45MbayoThijs Oosting: 73 passningar, xT 0.2OostingKoen Kostons: 56 passningar, xT 0.01KostonsDamian Van Der Haar: 54 passningar, xT 0.26Haar
    ADO Den Haag
    Juho Kilo: 312 passningar, xT 1.12KiloPascal Mulder: 263 passningar, xT 0.45MulderMatteo Waem: 198 passningar, xT 0.16WaemKilian Nikiema: 167 passningar, xT 0.21NikiemaMilan Hokke: 138 passningar, xT 0.32HokkeJonas Jensen-Abbew: 122 passningar, xT 0.05Jensen-AbbewKalonji Muyembi Raterink: 81 passningar, xT -0.08RaterinkEvan Rottier: 75 passningar, xT 0.42RottierJalen Hawkins: 69 passningar, xT 0.49HawkinsDaryl van Mieghem: 56 passningar, xT 0.49MieghemSékou Oumar Sylla: 41 passningar, xT 0.06Sylla
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    PEC Zwolle
    Nick Viergever: 212 passningar, xT 0.2ViergeverSimon Graves: 206 passningar, xT 0.41GravesTobias Sommer Sørensen: 151 passningar, xT 0.44SørensenJasper Schendelaar: 146 passningar, xT 0.18SchendelaarOlivier Aertssen: 123 passningar, xT 0.27AertssenSherel Floranus: 122 passningar, xT 0.09FloranusRyan Jared Thomas: 91 passningar, xT 0.46ThomasDylan Mbayo: 78 passningar, xT 0.45MbayoThijs Oosting: 73 passningar, xT 0.2OostingKoen Kostons: 56 passningar, xT 0.01KostonsDamian Van Der Haar: 54 passningar, xT 0.26Haar
    ADO Den Haag
    Juho Kilo: 312 passningar, xT 1.12KiloPascal Mulder: 263 passningar, xT 0.45MulderMatteo Waem: 198 passningar, xT 0.16WaemKilian Nikiema: 167 passningar, xT 0.21NikiemaMilan Hokke: 138 passningar, xT 0.32HokkeJonas Jensen-Abbew: 122 passningar, xT 0.05Jensen-AbbewKalonji Muyembi Raterink: 81 passningar, xT -0.08RaterinkEvan Rottier: 75 passningar, xT 0.42RottierJalen Hawkins: 69 passningar, xT 0.49HawkinsDaryl van Mieghem: 56 passningar, xT 0.49MieghemSékou Oumar Sylla: 41 passningar, xT 0.06Sylla

    The teams in numbers

    PerformancePEC ZwolleADO Den Haag
    Points76
    xPoints8.97.4
    xG per match1.10.86
    xGA per match2.22
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.210.11
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.390.29
    Playing stylePEC ZwolleADO Den Haag
    Build-up efficiency0.270.33
    Field tilt0.330.35
    xT per match0.790.87
    xTA per match1.41.3
    Won balls, offensive half2319
    Pressing intensity0.250.25
    Pressing efficiency0.270.29
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.27
    Entries into the box per match1011
    Entries into the box against1717
    Pass completion %0.710.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.660.72
    Passes per match274349
    Passes against per match444394
    Switches of play per match19.825.9
    Long balls per match2941
    Set piecesPEC ZwolleADO Den Haag
    xG from free kicks00.01
    Corners per match4.33.4
    Corners against per match7.25.8
    xG per corner0.020.03
    xGA per corner against0.030.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.310.55
    First touch, defensive corners %0.510.79
    OtherPEC ZwolleADO Den Haag
    Throw-in control0.710.81
    The goalkeepersJasper Schendelaar (PEC Zwolle)Kilian Nikiema (ADO Den Haag)
    Saves3944
    Save %66%69%
    xG prevented48%53%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    PEC Zwolle
    Fixtures, form & tips
    ADO Den Haag
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag according to our model?

    The model gives PEC Zwolle a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: PEC Zwolle 36%, draw 28%, ADO Den Haag 36%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag?

    The model expects 1.37 goals (xG) for PEC Zwolle and 1.45 for ADO Den Haag, 2.82 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    PEC Zwolle or draw (1X) 64%, ADO Den Haag or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 72%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.