01 · 2 legs
Safe
- PSV Eindhoven to win82%
- Over 1.5 goals91%
EredivisiePhilips Stadion, Eindhoven9°10 km/h
Läs på svenska
PSV EindhovenPossession & high pressvs
Willem IILow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · PSV Eindhoven (82%)Best value by the model: 2 · Willem II @ 36.00 (+143 %)
PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II · Eredivisie
1 · PSV Eindhoven 82%X 11%7% Willem II · 2
82%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II (Eredivisie, Saturday, 31 October 2026): PSV Eindhoven win 82%, draw 11%, Willem II win 7%. Expected goals (xG): PSV Eindhoven 2.91, Willem II 1.09. Most likely score: 2-1 (8%). Over 2.5 goals 76%, both teams to score 63%. Double chance: PSV Eindhoven or draw 93%, Willem II or draw 18%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: PSV Eindhoven – Willem II
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT (corrected):
PSV Eindhoven's relentless attack faces a struggling Willem II, with the home side entering the fixture on a sky-high 82% win probability. The Eindhoven team has been relentless in attack, scoring in 39 consecutive league matches, a testament to their potent attacking prowess. Willem II, on the other hand, finds themselves in dire straits with four consecutive losses, a streak that casts a long shadow over their visit to Eindhoven.
The hosts thrive on possession and high pressing, a style that has rewarded them with 19 league points and an 82% win rate across 72 home matches all-time. This contrasts sharply with Willem II's low defensive setup and direct play, a strategy that has yielded a meager two points this season. The numbers spell trouble for the visitors, with their 2.4 expected goals against per match highlighting defensive frailties.
Despite the small sample size of head-to-head encounters since 2022, PSV's record of 1 win and 1 draw against Willem II further cements their dominance. The expected goals tell a similar story, with PSV averaging 2.4 xG per match compared to Willem II's 1.1, pointing towards a possible goal-heavy display from the home side.
The models forecast a likely scoreline of 2-1, 3-1, or 2-0, each carrying an 8% probability. While over 2.5 goals has a 76% chance, the market might offer value in the under 3.5 goals at odds of 2.85 with LeoVegas, where the model sees a 23% edge.
Betting on such a strong favorite might not appeal to all, but the 13.0 odds for a draw and 26.0 for a Willem II upset at LeoVegas both present significant value opportunities due to their model-rated probabilities. These high-risk bets cater to those seeking substantial returns amidst PSV's expected dominance.
PSV EindhovenForm WWLWL
League ranking xG #3xGA #4xT #6xP/match #4Points #3
Key players
- Armando ObispoCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
- Ryan FlamingoCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.12
- Guus TilRWxG 0.39 · xT 0.12
Willem IIForm DLLLL
League ranking xG #15xGA #18xT #14xP/match #16Points #18
Key players
- Calvin TwigtCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.14
- Hidde Willem ter AvestRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
- Uriël van AalstCAMxG 0.21 · xT 0.04
Match prediction: PSV Eindhoven – Willem II
Predicted score matrix
Willem II →
PSV Eindhoven →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–02.0%
0–11.8%
0–21.1%
0–30.4%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–05.1%
1–16.0%
1–23.2%
1–31.2%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–07.7%
2–18.4%
2–24.6%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–07.5%
3–18.2%
3–24.5%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–011.2%
4+–112.2%
4+–26.7%
4+–32.4%
4+–4+0.8%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-18%
- 2.3-18%
- 3.2-08%
- 4.3-07%
- 5.4-16%
Expected goals
2,91–1,09
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 4,00
1
215%
319%
420%
5+37%
Under 2,524%
@6.14EV+45%
Over 2,576%
@1.10
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- PSV Eindhoven to win82%
- Over 2.5 goals76%
- Ivan Perišić to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals76%
- Ivan Perišić to score33%
- Anass Zarrouk to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Willem II7% probability@36.00BetsafeEV+143%reference odds
- 2 · Willem II7% probability@36.00NordicbetEV+143%reference odds
- X · Draw11% probability@17.00BetsafeEV+87%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · PSV Eindhoven | X | 2 · Willem II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.05 | EV+ 87% 17.00 | EV+ 143% 36.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.06 | EV+ 43% 13.00 | EV+ 75% 26.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.05 | EV+ 87% 17.00 | EV+ 143% 36.00 |
Odds updated 23 Oct, 23:37
Odds movement
10 %
94 %89 %
1.05 → 1.05
X0 %
8 %3 %
17.00 → 17.00
20 %
5 %0 %
36.00 → 36.00
Over 2,5-1 %
87 %82 %
1.11 → 1.10
Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesPSV Eindhoven 1Draw 1Willem II 0
Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.
Key facts
- PSV Eindhoven have scored in 39 consecutive league matches.
- Willem II have lost 4 in a row.
- PSV Eindhoven win 82% of their home matches all-time (72 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
PSV Eindhoven
Willem II
PSV Eindhoven (27–12)
Willem II (9–26)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
PSV Eindhoven
Willem II
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
PSV Eindhoven
Willem II
The teams in numbers
| Performance | PSV Eindhoven | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 19 | 2 |
| xPoints | 16.1 | 9.3 |
| xG per match | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 2.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.37 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.13 | 0.36 |
| Playing style | PSV Eindhoven | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.74 | 0.24 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 0.88 |
| xTA per match | 0.78 | 1.9 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 19 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 23 |
| Pass completion % | 0.83 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.79 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 521 | 295 |
| Passes against per match | 299 | 478 |
| Switches of play per match | 28.5 | 21.6 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 34 |
| Set pieces | PSV Eindhoven | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 6.6 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 2.9 | 6.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.36 |
| Other | PSV Eindhoven | Willem II |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Matej Kovar (PSV Eindhoven) | Maxime René Delanghe (Willem II) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 24 |
| Save % | 68% | 60% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 35% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II according to our model?
The model gives PSV Eindhoven a 82% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: PSV Eindhoven 82%, draw 11%, Willem II 7%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 8% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 76% and under at 24%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in PSV Eindhoven vs Willem II?
The model expects 2.91 goals (xG) for PSV Eindhoven and 1.09 for Willem II, 4.01 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
PSV Eindhoven or draw (1X) 93%, Willem II or draw (X2) 18% and no draw (12) 89%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.