Heerenveen vs NEC Prediction: Away win 38% (31 Oct 2026)

Eredivisie31 October 2026Abe Lenstra Stadion, Heerenveen8°15 km/h

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HeerenveenBalanced & physical

NECPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · NEC (38%)Soft draw

1 · Heerenveen 37%X 25%38% NEC · 2

37%

25%

38%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Heerenveen vs NEC (Eredivisie, Saturday, 31 October 2026): Heerenveen win 37%, draw 25%, NEC win 38%. Expected goals (xG): Heerenveen 1.63, NEC 1.44. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Heerenveen or draw 62%, NEC or draw 63%. Prediction updated Friday, 23 October 2026.

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Analysis: Heerenveen – NEC

Anna Karlsson · 23 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

A 37% probability for a home win against NEC's 38% chance. The model tips narrowly in favor of the visitors, making the margins razor-thin. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, suggesting a tight contest. While Heerenveen enjoys a slim points and xPoints advantage, NEC has the upper hand in expected goals—1.7 to the hosts' 1.4. This differential underscores NEC's attacking prowess and could be decisive.

The head-to-head record since 2022 shows Heerenveen with a slight edge, but with only four matchups, the sample remains too small to outweigh current form and expected goals. Both teams are predicted to score (62%), driven by opposing styles: Heerenveen's balanced and physical approach versus NEC's possession and high press. Yet, the numbers suggest a game not as open as it might seem, with an under 3.5 goals carrying an 11% edge at odds of 1.75 on LeoVegas.

With both sides nearly evenly matched, the real value lies in these specific odds. NEC's 38% win chance against the offered 3.65 odds on LeoVegas presents a clear betting angle. The model's backing of the under 3.5 goals further solidifies this as the sharpest play, pointing to a cagey match with potential for low-scoring drama.

Heerenveen

Form LDWLW

League ranking xG #10xGA #7xT #12xP/match #6Points #8

Key players

Oliver BraudeRBxG 0.08 · xT 0.17
Jacob TrenskowRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.07
Sam KerstenCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06

NEC

Form DLDDD

League ranking xG #7xGA #6xT #4xP/match #8Points #12

Key players

Bryan Catharina Anna Petronella LinssenFxG 0.22 · xT 0.04
Tjaronn CheryRWxG 0.62 · xT 0.16
Darko NejašmićCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.18

Match prediction: Heerenveen – NEC

Predicted score matrix

NEC →

Heerenveen →

0–05.0%

0–16.4%

0–24.8%

0–32.3%

0–4+1.2%

1–07.2%

1–111.2%

1–27.9%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.9%

2–06.2%

2–18.9%

2–26.4%

2–33.1%

2–4+1.5%

3–03.3%

3–14.8%

3–23.5%

3–31.7%

3–4+0.8%

4+–02.0%

4+–12.8%

4+–22.0%

4+–31.0%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.2-26%

Expected goals

1,63–1,44

Both teams to score

62%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+20%

Under 2,541%

@2.90EV+18%

Over 2,559%

@1.40

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance NEC or draw (X2)58%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance NEC or draw (X2)58%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Tjaronn Inteff Chefren Chery to score14%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score62%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Ringo Meerveld to score31%
Isak Hansen-Aarøen to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · NEC38% probability@3.88BetsafeEV+47%reference odds
2 · NEC38% probability@3.88NordicbetEV+47%reference odds
2 · NEC38% probability@3.65LeoVegasEV+38%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Heerenveen	X	2 · NEC
Betsafe	1.76	EV+ 5% 4.11	EV+ 47% 3.88
LeoVegas	1.85	EV+ 4% 4.10	EV+ 38% 3.65
Nordicbet	1.76	EV+ 5% 4.11	EV+ 47% 3.88

Odds updated 23 Oct, 23:37

Odds movement

10 %

56 %51 %

1.76 → 1.76

X0 %

25 %20 %

4.11 → 4.11

20 %

27 %22 %

3.88 → 3.88

Over 2,5-1 %

70 %65 %

1.39 → 1.37

Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 23/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Heerenveen 2Draw 1NEC 1

Goals: 6–7 (⌀ 3,2)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Heerenveen

NEC

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Heerenveen (15–11)

NEC (15–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Heerenveen

NEC

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Heerenveen

NEC

The teams in numbers

Performance	Heerenveen	NEC
Points	12	10
xPoints	12.6	12.1
xG per match	1.4	1.7
xGA per match	1.4	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.24
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.19

Playing style	Heerenveen	NEC
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.32
Field tilt	0.47	0.75
xT per match	0.89	1.7
xTA per match	1.2	0.88
Won balls, offensive half	21	30
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.37
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.34
Entries into the box per match	13	21
Entries into the box against	13	11
Pass completion %	0.8	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.71
Passes per match	430	410
Passes against per match	377	246
Switches of play per match	28.4	18
Long balls per match	37	26

Set pieces	Heerenveen	NEC
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.01
Corners per match	5.2	5.8
Corners against per match	4.9	3.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.59

Other	Heerenveen	NEC
Throw-in control	0.85	0.74

The goalkeepers	Bernt Klaverboer (Heerenveen)	Gonzalo Alejandro Crettaz (NEC)
Saves	23	13
Save %	72%	54%
xG prevented	50%	25%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Heerenveen

Fixtures, form & tips

NEC

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Heerenveen vs NEC according to our model?

The model gives NEC a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Heerenveen 37%, draw 25%, NEC 38%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Heerenveen vs NEC?

The model expects 1.63 goals (xG) for Heerenveen and 1.44 for NEC, 3.07 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Heerenveen or draw (1X) 62%, NEC or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.