Excelsior vs Twente Prediction: Away win 64% (1 Nov 2026)

Eredivisie1 November 2026Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Rotterdam

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ExcelsiorLow block & direct

TwentePossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Twente (64%)

1 · Excelsior 15%X 21%64% Twente · 2

15%

21%

64%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Excelsior vs Twente (Eredivisie, Sunday, 1 November 2026): Excelsior win 15%, draw 21%, Twente win 64%. Expected goals (xG): Excelsior 1.09, Twente 2.39. Most likely score: 1-2 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Excelsior or draw 36%, Twente or draw 85%. Prediction updated Saturday, 24 October 2026.

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Analysis: Excelsior – Twente

Marcus Johansson · 24 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Twente's 64% probability to win stands out in this matchup. Their playing style, centered on possession and a high press, contrasts sharply with the hosts' low defense and direct approach. While Twente have netted in 8 consecutive league games, Excelsior's two-game unbeaten head-to-head record since 2022 (one win, one draw) is a small sample and doesn't weigh heavily against Twente's current form and superior expected goals.

The visitors also hold an advantage in xG, averaging 2.4 per match compared to the hosts' 1.4. Defensively, Excelsior concedes more, with an xGA of 1.7 against Twente's 0.8. These numbers suggest Twente should dominate both possession and chances, aligning with the model's most likely scoreline of 1-2. The model heavily leans towards over 2.5 goals (68%), supported by the attacking metrics and both teams' tendency to find the net (61% BTTS).

Despite Excelsior's past resilience, the numbers indicate a likely away win with a 1-2 scoreline, pointing towards a high-scoring affair.

Excelsior

Form DLDLL

League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #13xP/match #8Points #11

Key players

Irakli YegoianFxG 0.19 · xT 0.27
David GardenFxG 0.39 · xT -0.03
Lennard HartjesCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.01

Twente

Form WWWDL

League ranking xG #4xGA #1xT #2xP/match #2Points #5

Key players

Max BrunsCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
Younes Taha El IdrissiRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.44
Bart van RooijRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.44

Match prediction: Excelsior – Twente

Predicted score matrix

Twente →

Excelsior →

0–03.3%

0–17.1%

0–28.8%

0–37.0%

0–4+7.3%

1–03.1%

1–18.3%

1–29.6%

1–37.6%

1–4+8.0%

2–01.8%

2–14.4%

2–25.2%

2–34.2%

2–4+4.4%

3–00.7%

3–11.6%

3–21.9%

3–31.5%

3–4+1.6%

4+–00.2%

4+–10.6%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.6%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-210%
2.0-29%
3.1-18%
4.1-38%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,09–2,39

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,5

110%

219%

322%

419%

5+27%

Under 2,532%

@2.81

Over 2,568%

@1.40

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Twente to win64%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Twente to win64%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Wout François Maria Weghorst to score38%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals68%
Wout François Maria Weghorst to score38%
Rick Meissen to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Twente64% probability@1.58BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
2 · Twente64% probability@1.58NordicbetEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Excelsior	X	2 · Twente
Betsafe	4.90	4.32	EV+ 2% 1.58
LeoVegas	5.20	4.60	1.53
Nordicbet	4.90	4.32	EV+ 2% 1.58

Odds updated 24 Oct, 07:38

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Excelsior 1Draw 1Twente 0

Goals: 1–0 (⌀ 0,5)

Head-to-head based on Eredivisie data since 2022.

Key facts

Twente Enschede FC have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Excelsior

Twente

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Excelsior (16–18)

Twente (17–10)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Excelsior

Twente

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Excelsior

Twente

The teams in numbers

Performance	Excelsior	Twente
Points	11	17
xPoints	12.5	17.1
xG per match	1.4	2.4
xGA per match	1.7	0.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.26	0.18

Playing style	Excelsior	Twente
Build-up efficiency	0.33	0.32
Field tilt	0.41	0.73
xT per match	0.88	1.8
xTA per match	1.4	0.52
Won balls, offensive half	29	28
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.23
Entries into the box per match	10	19
Entries into the box against	16	8
Pass completion %	0.73	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.69	0.76
Passes per match	316	481
Passes against per match	473	321
Switches of play per match	32.5	36.9
Long balls per match	41	39

Set pieces	Excelsior	Twente
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.01
Corners per match	3.8	7.2
Corners against per match	5.1	3.9
xG per corner	0.06	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.35	0.34
First touch, defensive corners %	0.61	0.46

Other	Excelsior	Twente
Throw-in control	0.75	0.78

The goalkeepers	Stijn van Gassel (Excelsior)	Lars Unnerstall (Twente)
Saves	29	16
Save %	63%	73%
xG prevented	39%	56%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Excelsior

Fixtures, form & tips

Twente

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Excelsior vs Twente according to our model?

The model gives Twente a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Excelsior 15%, draw 21%, Twente 64%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-2 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 68% and under at 32%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Excelsior vs Twente?

The model expects 1.09 goals (xG) for Excelsior and 2.39 for Twente, 3.48 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Excelsior or draw (1X) 36%, Twente or draw (X2) 85% and no draw (12) 79%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.