Cambuur vs NEC: Prediction & Odds (13 Sept 2026)

Eredivisie13 September 2026Cambuur Stadion, Leeuwarden16°5,3 mm20 km/h

Läs på svenska

CambuurPossession control

NECPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · NEC (52%)Best value by the model: 1 · Cambuur @ 5.90 (+53 %)

1 · Cambuur 26%X 22%52% NEC · 2

26%

22%

52%

Analysis: Cambuur – NEC

Marcus Johansson · 8 September 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The most likely scorelines listed are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%) — the top one is a draw, not a NEC win. The text misstates this by claiming the most likely scorelines forecast a NEC victory while omitting the actual top scoreline (1-1). Corrected text:

NEC's streak of scoring in 27 consecutive league matches sets the stage for their visit to Cambuur, a team struggling to control games despite their possession-based style. The visitors are favored by the model, with a 52% chance of winning, while the hosts are given just a 26% shot. Cambuur's single point and dismal xGA of 2.3 per match underline their defensive vulnerabilities, positioning them as clear underdogs against a high-pressing NEC side that averages 2.1 xG per match.

The pattern is stark: NEC dominates in expected points and goals, reflecting their superior form. While Cambuur likes to hold the ball, their inefficacy in turning possession into goals contrasts sharply with NEC's dynamic pressing and goal-scoring consistency. This clash suggests NEC's pressure will likely disrupt Cambuur's rhythm, leading to a scenario where the visitors dictate the game's pace.

Despite Cambuur's possession, the expected goals tell a different story. NEC's offensive potency and Cambuur's defensive frailty suggest a high chance of over 2.5 goals, rated at 59%. Both teams finding the net is also probable at 60%, aligned with NEC's scoring run and Cambuur's porous defense. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, followed closely by 1-2 and 0-1, both favoring a NEC victory.

For those examining betting angles, the potential for shock value lies with Cambuur. Though their form and stats offer little encouragement, the odds of 6.27 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet present a tempting 62% edge for risk-takers. Yet, the numbers and form lean decisively towards NEC, who are poised to capitalize on Cambuur's defensive lapses.

Cambuur

Form LLLLD

League ranking xG #15xGA #18xT #9xP/match #17Points #18

Key players

Nicolas BinderFxG 0.29 · xT 0.23
Rafik El ArguiouiLWxG 0.38 · xT 0.17
Jamal AmofaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.10

NEC

Form WLWWL

League ranking xG #6xGA #5xT #2xP/match #7Points #10

Key players

Dušan TadićFxG 0.07 · xT 0.22
Brayann PereiraRWxG 0.03 · xT 0.25
Bryan Catharina Anna Petronella LinssenFxG 0.29 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Cambuur – NEC

Predicted score matrix

NEC →

Cambuur →

0–05.0%

0–18.0%

0–27.3%

0–34.3%

0–4+2.8%

1–05.8%

1–111.1%

1–29.4%

1–35.5%

1–4+3.6%

2–04.0%

2–17.0%

2–26.1%

2–33.6%

2–4+2.3%

3–01.7%

3–13.0%

3–22.6%

3–31.5%

3–4+1.0%

4+–00.7%

4+–11.3%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-29%
3.0-18%
4.0-27%
5.2-17%

Expected goals

1,30–1,76

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

114%

222%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,541%

@3.20EV+28%

Over 2,559%

@1.37

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

NEC to win52%
Over 1.5 goals81%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

NEC to win52%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Tjaronn Inteff Chefren Chery to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals59%
Tjaronn Inteff Chefren Chery to score29%
Billy van Duijl to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Cambuur26% probability@5.90Betfair ExchangeEV+53%reference odds
1 · Cambuur26% probability@5.33BetsafeEV+38%reference odds
1 · Cambuur26% probability@5.33BetssonEV+38%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Cambuur	X	2 · NEC
Bet365	EV+ 36% 5.25	EV+ 12% 5.00	1.44
Betfair Exchange	EV+ 53% 5.90	EV+ 15% 5.10	1.46
Betsafe	EV+ 38% 5.33	4.28	1.54
Betsson	EV+ 38% 5.33	4.28	1.54
Nordicbet	EV+ 38% 5.33	4.28	1.54
Pinnacle	EV+ 34% 5.18	EV+ 8% 4.81	1.51

Odds updated 11 Sept, 12:26

Odds movement

1-3 %

21 %16 %

5.34 → 5.18

X-1 %

22 %17 %

4.86 → 4.81

2+1 %

65 %60 %

1.50 → 1.51

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 09/09/2026 → 11/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

NEC have scored in 27 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Cambuur

NEC

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Cambuur (6–18)

NEC (9–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Cambuur

NEC

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Cambuur

NEC

The teams in numbers

Performance	Cambuur	NEC
Points	1	6
xPoints	4	6
xG per match	1.1	2.1
xGA per match	2.3	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.44
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.23

Playing style	Cambuur	NEC
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.42	0.77
xT per match	1.1	1.8
xTA per match	1.2	0.72
Won balls, offensive half	19	33
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.39
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.34
Entries into the box per match	13	23
Entries into the box against	16	10
Pass completion %	0.79	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.71
Passes per match	348	416
Passes against per match	350	213
Switches of play per match	24.4	16.8
Long balls per match	27	24

Set pieces	Cambuur	NEC
xG from free kicks	0.03	0
Corners per match	3.8	5.7
Corners against per match	6	2.7
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.64

Other	Cambuur	NEC
Throw-in control	0.82	0.7

The goalkeepers	Thijs Jansen (Cambuur)	Gonzalo Alejandro Crettaz (NEC)
Saves	18	5
Save %	51%	42%
xG prevented	28%	13%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Cambuur

Fixtures, form & tips

NEC

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Cambuur vs NEC according to our model?

The model gives NEC a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cambuur 26%, draw 22%, NEC 52%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.