01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Birmingham City to win53%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
EFL ChampionshipSt Andrew's, Birmingham16°0,2 mm26 km/h
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Birmingham CityCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Preston North EndLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Birmingham City (53%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.39 (+21 %)
Birmingham City vs Preston North End · EFL Championship
1 · Birmingham City 53%X 28%20% Preston North End · 2
53%
28%
20%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Birmingham City vs Preston North End (EFL Championship, Tuesday, 13 October 2026): Birmingham City win 53%, draw 28%, Preston North End win 20%. Expected goals (xG): Birmingham City 1.74, Preston North End 0.95. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Birmingham City or draw 80%, Preston North End or draw 47%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.
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Analysis: Birmingham City – Preston North End
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Birmingham City have made a habit of finding the net in recent matches, hitting the scoreboard in 8 consecutive league games. This offensive consistency stands in stark contrast to Preston North End's current struggles, as the visitors have managed to gather only 4 points so far. The model favors the hosts with a 53% chance of victory, supported by a notable xG difference: Birmingham at 1.74 versus Preston's 0.95. These numbers suggest a Birmingham edge, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 12%, but closely followed by a 1-0 home win at 11%.
While the head-to-head record is a small sample size of just 2 games, the hosts have emerged victorious in both encounters since 2023. This might not be a definitive guide, but it certainly bolsters Birmingham's confidence. Their playing style, focusing on counter-attacks and crosses, seems well-suited to exploit Preston's low defensive setup.
The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is finely poised at 51%, the same percentage as both teams scoring. Given Birmingham's recent offensive form and Preston's direct playing style, it's plausible to expect goals, though not an abundance. The expectation leans slightly toward a tighter affair, where Birmingham could edge it with a single goal margin.
However, the sharpest betting angle lies in the draw market. With bookmakers like LeoVegas offering odds of 4.1 for a draw, there is a significant 13% edge according to the model's 28% probability. Similar value can be found at Betsafe and Nordicbet at odds of 4.0, presenting a compelling case for bettors seeking an opportunity outside the outright winner.
In essence, while Birmingham holds the upper hand statistically and stylistically, the draw offers the most intriguing betting value. But make no mistake, Birmingham City appears well-poised to continue their scoring streak and possibly secure a narrow victory against a struggling Preston side.
Birmingham CityForm DLWDW
League ranking xG #10xGA #12xT #4xP/match #8Points #8
Key players
- Christoph KlarerCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.05
- Tomoki IwataCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.09
- Jhon SolísCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.04
Preston North EndForm WLLDL
League ranking xG #14xGA #11xT #16xP/match #10Points #24
Key players
- Jordan ThompsonCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
- Liam LindsayCBxG 0.13 · xT 0.04
- Alfie Sean DevineCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Birmingham City – Preston North End
Predicted score matrix
Preston North End →
Birmingham City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.1%
0–16.1%
0–23.1%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–011.4%
1–111.5%
1–25.3%
1–31.7%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.2%
2–19.8%
2–24.7%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–05.9%
3–15.7%
3–22.7%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–03.8%
4+–13.7%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,74–0,95
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@2.12EV+1%
Over 2,551%
@1.77
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Birmingham City to win53%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Carlos Vicente Robles to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Carlos Vicente Robles to score32%
- Alistair Edward McCann to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw28% probability@4.39PinnacleEV+21%reference odds
- X · Draw28% probability@4.33LeoVegasEV+20%reference odds
- 2 · Preston North End20% probability@5.85BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Birmingham City | X | 2 · Preston North End |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.58 | EV+ 6% 3.85 | EV+ 15% 5.85 |
| LeoVegas | 1.57 | EV+ 20% 4.33 | EV+ 10% 5.60 |
| Nordicbet | 1.58 | EV+ 6% 3.85 | EV+ 15% 5.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.55 | EV+ 21% 4.39 | EV+ 13% 5.75 |
Odds updated 13 Oct, 08:35
Odds movement
1-3 %
63 %58 %
1.59 → 1.55
X+4 %
25 %20 %
4.22 → 4.39
2+12 %
20 %15 %
5.12 → 5.75
Over 2,5+3 %
58 %53 %
1.70 → 1.75
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 13/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesBirmingham City 2Draw 0Preston North End 0
Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.
Key facts
- Birmingham City have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Birmingham City
Preston North End
Birmingham City (13–11)
Preston North End (8–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Birmingham City
Preston North End
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Birmingham City
Preston North End
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Birmingham City | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 4 |
| xPoints | 13.8 | 12.8 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.16 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Birmingham City | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.51 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| xTA per match | 0.93 | 0.93 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.62 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 259 | 266 |
| Passes against per match | 300 | 372 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.7 | 20.6 |
| Long balls per match | 27 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Birmingham City | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 6.3 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.7 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.3 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| Other | Birmingham City | Preston North End |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | James Beadle (Birmingham City) | Daniel Lønne Iversen (Preston North End) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 27 |
| Save % | 69% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 41% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Southampton – Portsmouth11 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Burnley – Charlton Athletic13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Wolverhampton – Bolton Wanderers13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Cardiff City – Watford13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Wrexham – West Bromwich Albion13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Bristol City – Blackburn Rovers13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Millwall – Swansea City13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Stoke City – Middlesbrough13 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Queens Park Rangers – Derby County14 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Birmingham City vs Preston North End according to our model?
The model gives Birmingham City a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Birmingham City 53%, draw 28%, Preston North End 20%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Birmingham City vs Preston North End?
The model expects 1.74 goals (xG) for Birmingham City and 0.95 for Preston North End, 2.69 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Birmingham City or draw (1X) 80%, Preston North End or draw (X2) 47% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.