Burnley vs Charlton Athletic Prediction: Home win 55% (13 Oct 2026)

EFL Championship13 October 2026 20:45 CESTTurf Moor, Burnley14°3,3 mm34 km/h

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BurnleyPossession control

Charlton AthleticLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Burnley (55%)Best value by the model: 2 · Charlton Athletic @ 5.40 (+21 %)

1 · Burnley 55%X 23%22% Charlton Athletic · 2

55%

23%

22%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Burnley vs Charlton Athletic (EFL Championship, Tuesday, 13 October 2026): Burnley win 55%, draw 23%, Charlton Athletic win 22%. Expected goals (xG): Burnley 1.47, Charlton Athletic 0.90. Most likely score: 1-0 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 46%. Double chance: Burnley or draw 78%, Charlton Athletic or draw 45%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.

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Analysis: Burnley – Charlton Athletic

Erik Lindberg · 12 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: With Burnley hosting the encounter, the model tilts strongly in their favor, giving them a 55% chance to claim victory. This nod towards the Clarets is reinforced by their consistent scoring streak, having found the net in 14 consecutive league matches. Meanwhile, the visitors' low defensive block and direct style suggest they'll be looking to catch Burnley on the break.

Form-wise, Charlton have a slight edge with 13 points to Burnley’s 7, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. The Clarets have the upper hand in expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA), suggesting that their recent run hasn't fully reflected their performances. Burnley's xG per game stands at 1.2 compared to Charlton's 0.91, while defensively, they're just a touch better with an xGA of 1.4 against 1.5.

Weather could suppress the goal count, with expected rain possibly hampering both sides' attacking fluency. This aligns with the model's low over 2.5 goals probability at 42% and a modest 46% for both teams to score. The most likely scorelines of 1-0 and 1-1 highlight the anticipated tightness of this match.

While Burnley come in as favorites, with a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline seeming plausible, the bookmakers offer intriguing value on Charlton. With odds at 5.4 with LeoVegas, the model sees a 21% edge — a potentially profitable angle for those willing to bet against the grain. While Burnley’s controlled possession game and home advantage make them the sensible pick, those odds on Charlton present a tempting opportunity for underdog backers.

Burnley

Form LDLDW

League ranking xG #16xGA #16xT #17xP/match #18Points #22

Key players

Jacob Bruun LarsenLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.19
Kyle WalkerCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.16
Reo HatateLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.02

Charlton Athletic

Form LDDLD

League ranking xG #24xGA #20xT #22xP/match #16Points #12

Key players

Billy Dawson KoumetioCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.02
Karlan Laughton Ahearne-GrantFxG 0.16 · xT 0.13
Tyreece Anthony Tupac Shakur CampbellLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.16

Match prediction: Burnley – Charlton Athletic

Predicted score matrix

Charlton Athletic →

Burnley →

0–09.7%

0–18.0%

0–23.8%

0–31.1%

0–4+0.3%

1–013.4%

1–112.7%

1–25.6%

1–31.7%

1–4+0.5%

2–010.1%

2–19.1%

2–24.1%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–05.0%

3–14.5%

3–22.0%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.5%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.1-113%
3.2-010%
4.0-010%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,47–0,90

Both teams to score

46%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

010%

121%

227%

321%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,558%

@2.00EV+13%

Over 2,542%

@1.85

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Burnley to win55%
Under 3.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Burnley to win55%
Under 2.5 goals58%
Mohamed Zeki Amdouni to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score46%
Over 2.5 goals42%
Mohamed Zeki Amdouni to score31%
Oliver William Skipp to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Charlton Athletic22% probability@5.40PinnacleEV+21%reference odds
2 · Charlton Athletic22% probability@5.35BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
2 · Charlton Athletic22% probability@5.35NordicbetEV+19%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Burnley	X	2 · Charlton Athletic
Betsafe	1.62	3.85	EV+ 19% 5.35
LeoVegas	1.64	4.00	EV+ 16% 5.20
Nordicbet	1.62	3.85	EV+ 19% 5.35
Pinnacle	1.63	4.03	EV+ 21% 5.40

Odds updated 13 Oct, 08:15

Odds movement

1+3 %

61 %56 %

1.59 → 1.63

X0 %

26 %21 %

4.04 → 4.03

2-1 %

20 %15 %

5.47 → 5.40

Over 2,5+1 %

55 %50 %

1.83 → 1.85

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 13/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Burnley have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Burnley

Charlton Athletic

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Burnley (13–17)

Charlton Athletic (8–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Burnley

Charlton Athletic

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Burnley

Charlton Athletic

The teams in numbers

Performance	Burnley	Charlton Athletic
Points	7	13
xPoints	11.5	11.5
xG per match	1.2	0.91
xGA per match	1.4	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.08
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.21

Playing style	Burnley	Charlton Athletic
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.33
Field tilt	0.44	0.28
xT per match	0.89	0.69
xTA per match	0.98	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	16	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.25
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.21
Entries into the box per match	9	9
Entries into the box against	13	15
Pass completion %	0.77	0.69
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.65
Passes per match	380	247
Passes against per match	403	439
Switches of play per match	32.9	19.1
Long balls per match	33	25

Set pieces	Burnley	Charlton Athletic
xG from free kicks	0	0.07
Corners per match	4.6	4.5
Corners against per match	4.5	6.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.42
First touch, defensive corners %	0.75	0.55

Other	Burnley	Charlton Athletic
Throw-in control	0.69	0.73

The goalkeepers	Max Weiß (Burnley)	Arthur Chukwuezugo Okonkwo (Charlton Athletic)
Saves	16	28
Save %	50%	74%
xG prevented	34%	46%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Burnley

Fixtures, form & tips

Charlton Athletic

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Burnley vs Charlton Athletic according to our model?

The model gives Burnley a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Burnley 55%, draw 23%, Charlton Athletic 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Burnley vs Charlton Athletic?

The model expects 1.47 goals (xG) for Burnley and 0.90 for Charlton Athletic, 2.37 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Burnley or draw (1X) 78%, Charlton Athletic or draw (X2) 45% and no draw (12) 77%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.