01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Millwall or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals76%
EFL ChampionshipThe Den, London18°0,3 mm23 km/h
Läs på svenska
MillwallLow block & directvs
Swansea CityPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Millwall (40%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.92 (+6 %)
Millwall vs Swansea City · EFL Championship
1 · Millwall 40%X 30%30% Swansea City · 2
40%
30%
30%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Millwall vs Swansea City (EFL Championship, Tuesday, 13 October 2026): Millwall win 40%, draw 30%, Swansea City win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Millwall 1.32, Swansea City 1.16. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Millwall or draw 70%, Swansea City or draw 60%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Millwall – Swansea City
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Millwall's clash with Swansea City presents a fascinating contrast in styles, where the hosts rely on low defense and direct play while the visitors aim for possession control. This tactical dichotomy sets the stage for a tense encounter, with Millwall holding a slight model edge at 40% probability for victory compared to Swansea City's 30%. The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, predicted at 13%, while a narrow 1-0 win for Millwall appears plausible at 11%.
Digging into the numbers, Millwall's xPoints stand at 14.9, higher than Swansea City's 12.3, giving Millwall the edge in underlying performance. However, Millwall's actual points tally is only 14, slightly below their xPoints, suggesting they've been marginally underperforming their underlying numbers rather than overperforming. Furthermore, Millwall boasts 1.9 xG per match, highlighting their potential to break through Swansea's defense more effectively, despite Swansea's better standing in the real points table with 20 points.
Notably, Swansea City is riding a wave of momentum, carrying a three-game winning streak into this fixture. However, their recent head-to-head results against Millwall tell a different story, with the Lions unbeaten in their last four meetings since 2023, winning three and drawing one. Although this is a small sample size, it hints at a psychological edge for the hosts.
From a betting perspective, all signs point towards a low-scoring affair. The model suggests a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals, while the under 2.5 goals market offers value at odds of 1.96 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet, with an 8% edge. For those seeking a more aggressive play, under 1.5 goals at 3.73 with Betsafe also presents value, rated at 29% probability. Expect a tight contest with Millwall's tactical discipline potentially tipping the scales.
MillwallForm WLDDW
League ranking xG #2xGA #10xT #3xP/match #3Points #9
Key players
- Jake CooperCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
- Caleb Joaquin TaylorCBxG 0.15 · xT 0.06
- Casper De NorreCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.13
Swansea CityForm DLWWW
League ranking xG #11xGA #5xT #9xP/match #12Points #1
Key players
- Josh TymonLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.14
- Filip LissahRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
- Stephen WelshCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.15
Match prediction: Millwall – Swansea City
Predicted score matrix
Swansea City →
Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.8%
0–19.4%
0–25.6%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.7%
1–113.2%
1–27.4%
1–32.9%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.3%
2–18.5%
2–24.9%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–03.2%
3–13.7%
3–22.1%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.6%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,32–1,16
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,509%
120%
226%
321%
413%
5+11%
Under 2,555%
@1.92EV+6%
Over 2,545%
@1.93
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Millwall or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals55%
- Taïryk Arconte to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals45%
- Taïryk Arconte to score22%
- Jay Fulton to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.555% probability@1.92BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
- Under 2.555% probability@1.92NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
- Under 0.59% probability@12.00BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Millwall | X | 2 · Swansea City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.45 | EV+ 2% 3.35 | 2.80 |
| LeoVegas | 2.45 | EV+ 5% 3.45 | 2.85 |
| Nordicbet | 2.45 | EV+ 2% 3.35 | 2.80 |
| Pinnacle | 2.50 | EV+ 4% 3.41 | 2.86 |
Odds updated 13 Oct, 08:35
Odds movement
1-2 %
41 %36 %
2.54 → 2.50
X-1 %
30 %25 %
3.43 → 3.41
2+6 %
37 %32 %
2.71 → 2.86
Over 2,5+4 %
53 %48 %
1.85 → 1.93
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 13/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesMillwall 3Draw 1Swansea City 0
Goals: 5–2 (⌀ 1,8)
Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.
Key facts
- Swansea City come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Millwall
Swansea City
Millwall (16–15)
Swansea City (15–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Millwall
Swansea City
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Millwall
Swansea City
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Millwall | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 20 |
| xPoints | 14.9 | 12.3 |
| xG per match | 1.9 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.35 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Millwall | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.38 | 0.63 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.97 | 0.77 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.37 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.37 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.7 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 268 | 454 |
| Passes against per match | 339 | 283 |
| Switches of play per match | 25 | 25.6 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Millwall | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 7 | 4 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.51 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.5 |
| Other | Millwall | Swansea City |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.72 |
| The goalkeepers | Maxime Teremoana Crocombe (Millwall) | Lawrence Vigouroux (Swansea City) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 13 | 23 |
| Save % | 62% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 37% | 65% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Southampton – Portsmouth11 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Burnley – Charlton Athletic13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Wolverhampton – Bolton Wanderers13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Cardiff City – Watford13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Wrexham – West Bromwich Albion13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Bristol City – Blackburn Rovers13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Stoke City – Middlesbrough13 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Birmingham City – Preston North End13 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Queens Park Rangers – Derby County14 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Millwall vs Swansea City according to our model?
The model gives Millwall a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Millwall 40%, draw 30%, Swansea City 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Millwall vs Swansea City?
The model expects 1.32 goals (xG) for Millwall and 1.16 for Swansea City, 2.47 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Millwall or draw (1X) 70%, Swansea City or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 70%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.