01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Middlesbrough to win47%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
EFL Championshipbet365 Stadium, Stoke-on-Trent15°0,3 mm25 km/h
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Stoke CityPossession controlvs
MiddlesbroughPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Middlesbrough (47%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.78 (+9 %)
Stoke City vs Middlesbrough · EFL Championship
1 · Stoke City 24%X 29%47% Middlesbrough · 2
24%
29%
47%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Stoke City vs Middlesbrough (EFL Championship, Tuesday, 13 October 2026): Stoke City win 24%, draw 29%, Middlesbrough win 47%. Expected goals (xG): Stoke City 1.19, Middlesbrough 1.73. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Stoke City or draw 53%, Middlesbrough or draw 76%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.
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Analysis: Stoke City – Middlesbrough
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The heart of the matter in Stoke's clash with Middlesbrough lies in the tension between recent momentum and underlying numbers. Stoke, riding a three-game winning streak and having found the net in nine consecutive matches, exudes the confidence of a team in form. Yet, it's Middlesbrough's unbeaten run and superior expected goals (xG) statistics that suggest the visitors hold the upper hand.
Middlesbrough's high press and possession game have translated into an impressive xG of 1.9 per match compared to Stoke's 0.97. This disparity comes despite the hosts' recent successes, pointing to a potential mismatch in underlying quality. Furthermore, Boro’s xGA of 1.1 per match underlines a defensive solidity that Stoke, with a higher xGA of 1.5, might struggle to breach consistently.
A small head-to-head sample since 2023 shows Middlesbrough with three wins from four, but it’s the current form and playing styles that carry more weight. Both sides have proven capable of scoring, evidenced by their respective nine-match scoring streaks. The numbers indicate a 58% probability for both teams finding the net, aligning with the model's inclination towards a 1-1 or 1-2 scoreline.
Rain in the forecast signals dampened goal expectations, yet the model already accounts for this in its over 2.5 goals probability at 56%. The most compelling aspect, however, is the value drawn from the probabilities. With the draw priced at 3.75 on LeoVegas and rated 29% likely, there’s an 8% edge that savvy bettors might find enticing.
As the night unfolds, Stoke's recent momentum will be tested against Middlesbrough's statistical edge. While a draw could be the shrewd play given the odds, Boro's slight favor in probability and xG suggests they could nick this one narrowly, perhaps 1-2.
Stoke CityForm WDWWW
League ranking xG #22xGA #18xT #13xP/match #19Points #5
Key players
- Sam GallagherFxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
- Róbert BoženíkRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.04
- Maksym TaloverovCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.04
MiddlesbroughForm WWDDW
League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #2xP/match #4Points #2
Key players
- Luke AylingCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.30
- Morgan WhittakerRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.10
- Aidan MorrisCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Stoke City – Middlesbrough
Predicted score matrix
Middlesbrough →
Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.7%
0–19.0%
0–28.0%
0–34.6%
0–4+3.0%
1
1–06.1%
1–111.4%
1–29.6%
1–35.5%
1–4+3.6%
2
2–03.8%
2–16.6%
2–25.7%
2–33.3%
2–4+2.1%
3
3–01.5%
3–12.6%
3–22.3%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.6%
4+–11.0%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-28%
- 5.2-17%
Expected goals
1,19–1,73
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,544%
@2.12
Over 2,556%
@1.76
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Middlesbrough to win47%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- William Lankshear to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals56%
- William Lankshear to score27%
- El Hadji Djibril Soumaré to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw29% probability@3.78PinnacleEV+9%reference odds
- X · Draw29% probability@3.70LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
- X · Draw29% probability@3.60BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Stoke City | X | 2 · Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.45 | EV+ 4% 3.60 | 2.02 |
| LeoVegas | 3.50 | EV+ 7% 3.70 | 2.02 |
| Nordicbet | 3.45 | EV+ 4% 3.60 | 2.02 |
| Pinnacle | 3.44 | EV+ 9% 3.78 | 2.04 |
Odds updated 13 Oct, 08:35
Odds movement
1-1 %
30 %25 %
3.47 → 3.44
X-5 %
27 %22 %
3.96 → 3.78
2+5 %
50 %45 %
1.94 → 2.04
Over 2,5+6 %
58 %53 %
1.66 → 1.76
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 13/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesStoke City 0Draw 1Middlesbrough 3
Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.
Key facts
- Stoke City come into this round on 3 straight wins.
- Stoke City have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
- Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
- Middlesbrough have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Stoke City
Middlesbrough
Stoke City (15–13)
Middlesbrough (17–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Stoke City
Middlesbrough
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Stoke City
Middlesbrough
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Stoke City | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 18 |
| xPoints | 10.4 | 14.4 |
| xG per match | 0.97 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Stoke City | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.36 | 0.63 |
| xT per match | 0.95 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 0.98 | 0.81 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 290 | 467 |
| Passes against per match | 370 | 297 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.9 | 26.5 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 28 |
| Set pieces | Stoke City | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.12 | 0.27 |
| Corners per match | 4.4 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.7 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.7 |
| Other | Stoke City | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Viktor Johansson (Stoke City) | Radek Vítek (Middlesbrough) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 30 | 22 |
| Save % | 70% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Southampton – Portsmouth11 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Burnley – Charlton Athletic13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Wolverhampton – Bolton Wanderers13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Cardiff City – Watford13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Wrexham – West Bromwich Albion13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Bristol City – Blackburn Rovers13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Millwall – Swansea City13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Birmingham City – Preston North End13 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Queens Park Rangers – Derby County14 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Stoke City vs Middlesbrough according to our model?
The model gives Middlesbrough a 47% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Stoke City 24%, draw 29%, Middlesbrough 47%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Stoke City vs Middlesbrough?
The model expects 1.19 goals (xG) for Stoke City and 1.73 for Middlesbrough, 2.93 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Stoke City or draw (1X) 53%, Middlesbrough or draw (X2) 76% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.