01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Wrexham or draw (1X)65%
- Under 3.5 goals77%
EFL ChampionshipRacecourse Ground, Wrexham15°1,3 mm29 km/h
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WrexhamLow block & directvs
West Bromwich AlbionCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Wrexham (41%)Best value by the model: Under 3,5 @ 1.30 (+1 %)
Wrexham vs West Bromwich Albion · EFL Championship
1 · Wrexham 41%X 29%30% West Bromwich Albion · 2
41%
29%
30%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Wrexham vs West Bromwich Albion (EFL Championship, Tuesday, 13 October 2026): Wrexham win 41%, draw 29%, West Bromwich Albion win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Wrexham 1.22, West Bromwich Albion 1.20. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Wrexham or draw 70%, West Bromwich Albion or draw 59%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.
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Analysis: Wrexham – West Bromwich Albion
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
In the small head-to-head sample of two matches since 2023, West Bromwich Albion has a slight edge with one win and one draw, leaving Wrexham still in search of a victory. Yet, it's the underlying numbers that intrigue: Wrexham's expected goals (xG) metrics suggest they might be punching above their weight. They clock in with 1.22 xG per match compared to West Brom's 1.20, which tilts the scales marginally in the hosts' favor.
On paper, the model leans towards a Wrexham win at 41%, but the numbers convey a tighter contest. Expected goals and close probabilities paint a picture of two evenly matched sides, both with 1.1 xG per match. The weather's predicted rain adds another layer, likely keeping the match gritty and suppressing goal-scoring opportunities, which is already factored into the model's calculations.
The match's most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw at 13%, followed by a narrow 1-0 or 0-1 win for either side, each at 10% probability. Given the defensive setups and the added weather factor, an open, high-scoring affair seems unlikely. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 44%, and both teams to score is a coin flip at 50%, nodding toward a cautious approach on both ends.
For punters seeking value, the under 2.5 goals market offers an edge. Both Betsafe and Nordicbet list it at odds of 1.8, with the model assessing the probability at 56%, offering a 2% value edge. Meanwhile, LeoVegas provides a slightly safer under 3.5 goals at 1.3, albeit with just a 1% edge. For those who prioritize the steady return over the thrilling chase, the under markets are where the sharp angles lie.
WrexhamForm DDLWD
League ranking xG #17xGA #4xT #7xP/match #13Points #15
Key players
- Max George CleworthCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.31
- Callum DoyleCBxG 0.19 · xT 0.15
- Benjamin WhitemanCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
West Bromwich AlbionForm WWDLL
League ranking xG #18xGA #17xT #20xP/match #23Points #10
Key players
- Jayson MolumbyCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
- Aune Selland HeggebøFxG 0.43 · xT -0.02
- George Hampton CampbellCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.05
Match prediction: Wrexham – West Bromwich Albion
Predicted score matrix
West Bromwich Albion →
Wrexham →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.3%
0–110.3%
0–26.4%
0–32.6%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–010.5%
1–113.4%
1–27.8%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–06.6%
2–17.9%
2–24.8%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–02.7%
3–13.2%
3–21.9%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.3%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-110%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,22–1,20
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
226%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,556%
@1.78EV+1%
Over 2,544%
@2.08
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Wrexham or draw (1X)65%
- Under 2.5 goals56%
- Kieffer Roberto Francisco Moore to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals44%
- Kieffer Roberto Francisco Moore to score22%
- Benjamin Whiteman to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 3.577% probability@1.30LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
- Under 2.556% probability@1.78PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
- Under 4.590% probability@1.11LeoVegasEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Wrexham | X | 2 · West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.32 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
| LeoVegas | 2.35 | 3.35 | 3.10 |
| Nordicbet | 2.32 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
| Pinnacle | 2.35 | 3.42 | 3.07 |
Odds updated 13 Oct, 08:35
Odds movement
1+4 %
44 %39 %
2.27 → 2.35
X-1 %
30 %25 %
3.46 → 3.42
2-1 %
33 %28 %
3.09 → 3.07
Over 2,5+3 %
49 %44 %
2.02 → 2.08
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 13/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesWrexham 0Draw 1West Bromwich Albion 1
Goals: 4–5 (⌀ 4,5)
Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Wrexham
West Bromwich Albion
Wrexham (10–13)
West Bromwich Albion (10–9)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Wrexham
West Bromwich Albion
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Wrexham
West Bromwich Albion
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Wrexham | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 14 |
| xPoints | 12.2 | 9.7 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| Playing style | Wrexham | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.48 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.79 |
| xTA per match | 0.94 | 0.99 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.76 |
| Passes per match | 369 | 435 |
| Passes against per match | 401 | 366 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.7 | 26.8 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Wrexham | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Corners against per match | 3.9 | 6.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.67 |
| Other | Wrexham | West Bromwich Albion |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Anthony Patterson (Wrexham) | Max Oleary (West Bromwich Albion) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 33 |
| Save % | 66% | 83% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 64% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Southampton – Portsmouth11 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Burnley – Charlton Athletic13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Wolverhampton – Bolton Wanderers13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Cardiff City – Watford13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Bristol City – Blackburn Rovers13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Millwall – Swansea City13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Stoke City – Middlesbrough13 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Birmingham City – Preston North End13 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Queens Park Rangers – Derby County14 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Wrexham vs West Bromwich Albion according to our model?
The model gives Wrexham a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wrexham 41%, draw 29%, West Bromwich Albion 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Wrexham vs West Bromwich Albion?
The model expects 1.22 goals (xG) for Wrexham and 1.20 for West Bromwich Albion, 2.42 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Wrexham or draw (1X) 70%, West Bromwich Albion or draw (X2) 59% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.