Bristol City vs Blackburn Rovers Prediction: Home win 48% (13 Oct 2026)

EFL Championship13 October 2026 20:45 CESTAshton Gate, Bristol16°1,9 mm27 km/h

Läs på svenska

Bristol CityLow block & direct

Blackburn RoversPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Bristol City (48%)

1 · Bristol City 48%X 29%24% Blackburn Rovers · 2

48%

29%

24%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Bristol City vs Blackburn Rovers (EFL Championship, Tuesday, 13 October 2026): Bristol City win 48%, draw 29%, Blackburn Rovers win 24%. Expected goals (xG): Bristol City 1.54, Blackburn Rovers 1.10. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Bristol City or draw 76%, Blackburn Rovers or draw 52%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Bristol City – Blackburn Rovers

Oscar Nilsson · 12 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Bristol City enters the contest with a notable 48% win probability, clearly favored against Blackburn Rovers, who sit at just 24%. The most telling figures are the expected goals: 1.54 for the hosts against 1.10 for the visitors, highlighting Bristol City's offensive edge. Despite the small head-to-head sample since 2023, with each team winning twice, the current form and metrics all tilt towards a home advantage.

The number crunching suggests a tight match but leans towards a 1-0 or 2-1 victory for Bristol City. The expected conditions, with 5.9 mm of rain, might dampen the goal count slightly, yet the model's numbers already account for this. With the probability of over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 53%, caution is warranted if banking on a high-scoring affair.

The sharpest angle lies in the value on a draw, offered at odds of 3.5 across Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet. While the model rates this at a 29% probability—a neutral position by statistical edge—it remains an intriguing prospect for those seeking a less obvious outcome. A 1-1 draw, the most likely individual scoreline at 12%, might entice bettors willing to hedge against the favorite's edge.

Bristol City

Form WLLWD

League ranking xG #12xGA #14xT #19xP/match #11Points #11

Key players

Rob DickieCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.03
Lisav Naif EissatCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
Lorent TolajFxG 0.44 · xT 0.02

Blackburn Rovers

Form LLWDW

League ranking xG #23xGA #19xT #21xP/match #22Points #14

Key players

Todd CantwellCAMxG 0.19 · xT 0.08
Yuri RibeiroLBxG 0.01 · xT 0.15
Kristi Julian MontgomeryCMxG 0.04 · xT -0.01

Match prediction: Bristol City – Blackburn Rovers

Predicted score matrix

Blackburn Rovers →

Bristol City →

0–07.5%

0–17.5%

0–24.3%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.5%

1–010.7%

1–112.5%

1–26.6%

1–32.4%

1–4+0.8%

2–08.5%

2–19.3%

2–25.1%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.6%

3–04.4%

3–14.8%

3–22.6%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–02.4%

4+–12.6%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-19%
4.2-08%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,54–1,10

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+13%

Under 2,551%

@1.83

Over 2,549%

@2.06EV+1%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bristol City to win48%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bristol City to win48%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Adam Fletcher Randell to score19%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Ryoya Morishita to score22%
Kristi Julian Montgomery to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Bristol City48% probability@2.15LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds
1 · Bristol City48% probability@2.12BetsafeEV+1%reference odds
1 · Bristol City48% probability@2.12NordicbetEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bristol City	X	2 · Blackburn Rovers
Betsafe	EV+ 1% 2.12	3.25	3.50
LeoVegas	EV+ 3% 2.15	3.35	3.45
Nordicbet	EV+ 1% 2.12	3.25	3.50
Pinnacle	EV+ 0% 2.10	3.40	3.67

Odds updated 13 Oct, 08:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 11 October — the odds have shortened from 1.95 to 1.81 (−7%).

1+6 %

50 %45 %

1.98 → 2.10

X-4 %

30 %25 %

3.56 → 3.40

2-1 %

28 %23 %

3.72 → 3.67

Over 2,5+10 %

51 %46 %

1.87 → 2.06

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 13/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Bristol City 2Draw 0Blackburn Rovers 2

Goals: 4–6 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bristol City

Blackburn Rovers

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bristol City (12–13)

Blackburn Rovers (14–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bristol City

Blackburn Rovers

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bristol City

Blackburn Rovers

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bristol City	Blackburn Rovers
Points	14	12
xPoints	12.6	10
xG per match	1.3	0.96
xGA per match	1.3	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.16

Playing style	Bristol City	Blackburn Rovers
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.29
Field tilt	0.44	0.51
xT per match	0.82	0.76
xTA per match	1.1	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	23	20
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.24
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	11	14
Pass completion %	0.7	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.71
Passes per match	273	356
Passes against per match	352	349
Switches of play per match	16.1	33.7
Long balls per match	22	36

Set pieces	Bristol City	Blackburn Rovers
xG from free kicks	0.14	0
Corners per match	5.2	6.6
Corners against per match	5.4	5.1
xG per corner	0.03	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.28	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.71	0.67

Other	Bristol City	Blackburn Rovers
Throw-in control	0.7	0.74

The goalkeepers	Samuel Lloyd Tickle (Bristol City)	Balazs Toth (Blackburn Rovers)
Saves	15	13
Save %	56%	59%
xG prevented	27%	23%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bristol City

Fixtures, form & tips

Blackburn Rovers

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bristol City vs Blackburn Rovers according to our model?

The model gives Bristol City a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bristol City 48%, draw 29%, Blackburn Rovers 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Bristol City vs Blackburn Rovers?

The model expects 1.54 goals (xG) for Bristol City and 1.10 for Blackburn Rovers, 2.63 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Bristol City or draw (1X) 76%, Blackburn Rovers or draw (X2) 52% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.