Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County Prediction: Home win 53% (14 Oct 2026)

EFL Championship14 October 2026Loftus Road, London15°19 km/h

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Queens Park RangersPossession & high press

Derby CountyPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Queens Park Rangers (53%)Best value by the model: 2 · Derby County @ 4.68 (+3 %)

1 · Queens Park Rangers 53%X 25%22% Derby County · 2

53%

25%

22%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County (EFL Championship, Wednesday, 14 October 2026): Queens Park Rangers win 53%, draw 25%, Derby County win 22%. Expected goals (xG): Queens Park Rangers 1.71, Derby County 1.03. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Queens Park Rangers or draw 78%, Derby County or draw 47%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 6 October 2026.

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Analysis: Queens Park Rangers – Derby County

Oscar Nilsson · 12 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Queens Park Rangers' current edge in form is clear, with 14 points compared to Derby County's 6, underpinned by stronger expected points and goal metrics. The home side's expected goals of 1.71 significantly outpace Derby's 1.03, suggesting a potent offensive capability that should trouble the visitors' defense, which concedes an average of 1.8 xGA per match. Despite Queens Park Rangers' less favorable head-to-head record since 2023, consisting of just four games and skewed by Derby's three wins, the hosts' recent performances and underlying numbers suggest they are rightly favored.

The models predict a 53% win probability for QPR and lean towards a 1-1 or 1-0 scoreline, reflecting a tight contest but one where QPR holds the upper hand. With both teams inclined towards possession play, the midfield battle will be crucial, though QPR's high press may disrupt Derby's rhythm. The over 2.5 goals market looks finely balanced at 52%, aligning with a cautious nod towards a modest goal tally.

Bookmakers may underrate Queens Park Rangers' winning prospects given their superior form and metrics. With a model-backed 53% likelihood of victory, QPR stands out as the smart selection in this Championship clash.

Queens Park Rangers

Form LDDDD

League ranking xG #9xGA #6xT #5xP/match #5Points #7

Key players

Alfie LloydFxG 0.40 · xT -0.01
Jimmy DunneCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.03
Ilias ChairLWxG 0.54 · xT 0.34

Derby County

Form LLLDD

League ranking xG #20xGA #24xT #18xP/match #24Points #23

Key players

Joe WardRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.20
Alex MowattCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.04
Mohammed Gadafi FuseiniLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Queens Park Rangers – Derby County

Predicted score matrix

Derby County →

Queens Park Rangers →

0–06.8%

0–16.3%

0–23.4%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.4%

1–010.7%

1–111.7%

1–25.9%

1–32.0%

1–4+0.6%

2–09.4%

2–19.7%

2–25.0%

2–31.7%

2–4+0.6%

3–05.4%

3–15.5%

3–22.9%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–03.4%

4+–13.5%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-011%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,71–1,03

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,548%

@2.02

Over 2,552%

@1.80

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Queens Park Rangers to win53%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Queens Park Rangers to win53%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Rumarn Kameron-Scott Burrell to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Rumarn Kameron-Scott Burrell to score27%
Lewis Travis to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Derby County22% probability@4.68PinnacleEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Queens Park Rangers	X	2 · Derby County
LeoVegas	1.75	3.85	4.50
Pinnacle	1.70	3.90	EV+ 3% 4.68

Odds updated 13 Oct, 07:35

Odds movement

1-5 %

57 %52 %

1.78 → 1.70

X+3 %

27 %22 %

3.77 → 3.90

2+8 %

24 %19 %

4.32 → 4.68

Over 2,5-1 %

55 %50 %

1.83 → 1.80

Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 13/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Queens Park Rangers 1Draw 0Derby County 3

Goals: 6–6 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Queens Park Rangers

Derby County

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Queens Park Rangers (11–8)

Derby County (8–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Queens Park Rangers

Derby County

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Queens Park Rangers

Derby County

The teams in numbers

Performance	Queens Park Rangers	Derby County
Points	14	6
xPoints	14.3	9.6
xG per match	1.6	1
xGA per match	1.2	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.1	0.18

Playing style	Queens Park Rangers	Derby County
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.52	0.55
xT per match	1.1	0.83
xTA per match	1	1
Won balls, offensive half	21	26
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.25	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.26
Entries into the box per match	15	13
Entries into the box against	11	12
Pass completion %	0.78	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.68
Passes per match	373	317
Passes against per match	401	339
Switches of play per match	28.1	20
Long balls per match	32	31

Set pieces	Queens Park Rangers	Derby County
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.01
Corners per match	6.1	5.7
Corners against per match	3.9	5.8
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.08
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.74	0.53

Other	Queens Park Rangers	Derby County
Throw-in control	0.7	0.68

The goalkeepers	Pierce Joseph Charles (Queens Park Rangers)	Jacob Widell Zetterstrom (Derby County)
Saves	24	28
Save %	75%	68%
xG prevented	70%	43%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Queens Park Rangers

Fixtures, form & tips

Derby County

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County according to our model?

The model gives Queens Park Rangers a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Queens Park Rangers 53%, draw 25%, Derby County 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Queens Park Rangers vs Derby County?

The model expects 1.71 goals (xG) for Queens Park Rangers and 1.03 for Derby County, 2.74 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Queens Park Rangers or draw (1X) 78%, Derby County or draw (X2) 47% and no draw (12) 75%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.