EFL ChampionshipMolineux, Wolverhampton15°0,4 mm26 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    WolverhamptonWolverhamptonPossession control
    vs
    Bolton WanderersBolton WanderersPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Wolverhampton (56%)Best value by the model: 2 · Bolton Wanderers @ 7.50 (+46 %)

    Wolverhampton vs Bolton Wanderers · EFL Championship

    1 · Wolverhampton 56%X 25%20% Bolton Wanderers · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Wolverhampton vs Bolton Wanderers (EFL Championship, Tuesday, 13 October 2026): Wolverhampton win 56%, draw 25%, Bolton Wanderers win 20%. Expected goals (xG): Wolverhampton 1.79, Bolton Wanderers 1.04. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Wolverhampton or draw 80%, Bolton Wanderers or draw 44%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Wolverhampton – Bolton Wanderers

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    The numbers tell a clear story ahead of tomorrow's match: Wolverhampton carries a 56% win probability into this clash, bolstered by stronger xG and xGA metrics than Bolton. Wolverhampton averages 1.6 xG per match compared to Bolton's 1.3, while conceding significantly less at 0.99 xGA to 1.6. Both teams lean towards possession control, suggesting a tactical duel that could see Wolverhampton's superior efficiency and defensive solidity play a pivotal role.

    This context aligns with the model's lean, painting Wolverhampton as justified favorites. Most likely scorelines hover around narrow victories or draws, with the model giving slight preference to a 1-1 draw or a Wolverhampton win at 1-0 or 2-1. The expected goals support a moderate scoring affair, with over 2.5 goals at a 54% chance and both teams to score at the same probability.

    Caution is advised as Bolton's potential to disrupt remains real, albeit unlikely. This match-up promises tactical intrigue, with Wolverhampton's efficient play style likely tipping the balance.

    WolverhamptonWolverhampton
    Form LDWWL
    League ranking xG #6xGA #1xT #8xP/match #2Points #6
    Key players
    • Toti GomesCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
    • Nasser DjigaCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.05
    • Fer LópezRWxG 0.35 · xT 0.17
    Bolton WanderersBolton Wanderers
    Form LLWWL
    League ranking xG #15xGA #21xT #10xP/match #21Points #17
    Key players
    • Eoin ToalCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.03
    • Josh SheehanCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.12
    • Chris ForinoCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.03

    Match prediction: Wolverhampton – Bolton Wanderers

    Predicted score matrix

    Bolton Wanderers →
    Wolverhampton →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.2%
    0–15.8%
    0–23.2%
    0–31.1%
    0–4+0.4%
    1
    1–010.2%
    1–111.3%
    1–25.7%
    1–32.0%
    1–4+0.6%
    2
    2–09.4%
    2–19.8%
    2–25.1%
    2–31.8%
    2–4+0.6%
    3
    3–05.6%
    3–15.9%
    3–23.1%
    3–31.1%
    3–4+0.3%
    4+
    4+–03.8%
    4+–13.9%
    4+–22.1%
    4+–30.7%
    4+–4+0.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.1-010%
    3. 3.2-110%
    4. 4.2-09%
    5. 5.0-06%
    Expected goals
    1,79–1,04
    Both teams to score
    54%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,546%
    @2.50EV+15%
    Over 2,554%
    @1.48

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Wolverhampton to win56%
    • Over 1.5 goals78%

    Combined probability

    44%

    Fair odds

    2.25

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Wolverhampton to win56%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Thomas Glyn Doyle to score18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score54%
    • Over 2.5 goals54%
    • Samuel George Dalby to score19%
    • Ethan Jay Osadebawen Erhahon to be booked26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Bolton Wanderers20% probability@7.50BetMGM UKEV+46%reference odds
    • 2 · Bolton Wanderers20% probability@7.47PinnacleEV+46%reference odds
    • X · Draw25% probability@5.04PinnacleEV+25%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · WolverhamptonX2 · Bolton Wanderers
    BetMGM UK1.35
    EV+ 22%
    4.90
    EV+ 46%
    7.50
    Pinnacle1.40
    EV+ 25%
    5.04
    EV+ 46%
    7.47

    Odds updated 13 Oct, 08:15

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    70 %65 %

    1.37 → 1.40

    X+1 %
    22 %17 %

    4.99 → 5.04

    2+6 %
    16 %11 %

    7.03 → 7.47

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 13/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Wolverhampton
    Bolton Wanderers
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Wolverhampton (15–11)
    Bolton Wanderers (12–17)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Wolverhampton
    Nasser Djiga: 252 passningar, xT 0.28DjigaHugo Bueno: 201 passningar, xT 0.78BuenoToti Gomes: 186 passningar, xT 0.21GomesAndré: 182 passningar, xT 0.38AndréFer López: 153 passningar, xT 0.2LópezJosé Sá: 130 passningar, xT 0.02SáKieran John Trippier: 112 passningar, xT 0.57TrippierLadislav Krejci: 107 passningar, xT 0.26KrejciJackson Tchatchoua: 103 passningar, xT 0.17TchatchouaMateus Mané: 67 passningar, xT 0.68ManéTommy Doyle: 63 passningar, xT 0.05Doyle
    Bolton Wanderers
    Josh Sheehan: 244 passningar, xT 0.51SheehanMaxwell John Conway: 193 passningar, xT 0.5ConwayEoin Toal: 179 passningar, xT 0.16ToalBenjamin Keith Davies: 152 passningar, xT 0.1DaviesGaizka Larrazabal Goikoetxea: 147 passningar, xT 0.95GoikoetxeaGavin Okeroghene Bazunu: 114 passningar, xT 0.26BazunuEthan Erhahon: 113 passningar, xT 0.05ErhahonRúben da Rocha Rodrigues: 95 passningar, xT 0.74RodriguesChris Forino: 81 passningar, xT 0.02ForinoThierry Mikael Gale: 66 passningar, xT 0.03GaleSamuel Iling Junior: 57 passningar, xT 0.08Junior
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Wolverhampton
    Nasser Djiga: 252 passningar, xT 0.28DjigaHugo Bueno: 201 passningar, xT 0.78BuenoToti Gomes: 186 passningar, xT 0.21GomesAndré: 182 passningar, xT 0.38AndréFer López: 153 passningar, xT 0.2LópezJosé Sá: 130 passningar, xT 0.02SáKieran John Trippier: 112 passningar, xT 0.57TrippierLadislav Krejci: 107 passningar, xT 0.26KrejciJackson Tchatchoua: 103 passningar, xT 0.17TchatchouaMateus Mané: 67 passningar, xT 0.68ManéTommy Doyle: 63 passningar, xT 0.05Doyle
    Bolton Wanderers
    Josh Sheehan: 244 passningar, xT 0.51SheehanMaxwell John Conway: 193 passningar, xT 0.5ConwayEoin Toal: 179 passningar, xT 0.16ToalBenjamin Keith Davies: 152 passningar, xT 0.1DaviesGaizka Larrazabal Goikoetxea: 147 passningar, xT 0.95GoikoetxeaGavin Okeroghene Bazunu: 114 passningar, xT 0.26BazunuEthan Erhahon: 113 passningar, xT 0.05ErhahonRúben da Rocha Rodrigues: 95 passningar, xT 0.74RodriguesChris Forino: 81 passningar, xT 0.02ForinoThierry Mikael Gale: 66 passningar, xT 0.03GaleSamuel Iling Junior: 57 passningar, xT 0.08Junior

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceWolverhamptonBolton Wanderers
    Points1410
    xPoints1410.1
    xG per match1.61.3
    xGA per match0.991.6
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.320.16
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.160.24
    Playing styleWolverhamptonBolton Wanderers
    Build-up efficiency0.290.34
    Field tilt0.490.54
    xT per match1.11
    xTA per match0.881.1
    Won balls, offensive half2425
    Pressing intensity0.230.22
    Pressing efficiency0.30.31
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.230.27
    Entries into the box per match1314
    Entries into the box against1213
    Pass completion %0.780.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.70.7
    Passes per match375354
    Passes against per match320306
    Switches of play per match30.730.3
    Long balls per match3036
    Set piecesWolverhamptonBolton Wanderers
    xG from free kicks0.030.03
    Corners per match6.25.9
    Corners against per match4.54.8
    xG per corner0.040.02
    xGA per corner against0.050.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.440.42
    First touch, defensive corners %0.610.65
    OtherWolverhamptonBolton Wanderers
    Throw-in control0.750.75
    The goalkeepersJosé Sá (Wolverhampton)Gavin Okeroghene Bazunu (Bolton Wanderers)
    Saves1817
    Save %69%68%
    xG prevented45%67%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Wolverhampton
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Bolton Wanderers
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Wolverhampton vs Bolton Wanderers according to our model?

    The model gives Wolverhampton a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Wolverhampton 56%, draw 25%, Bolton Wanderers 20%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Wolverhampton vs Bolton Wanderers?

    The model expects 1.79 goals (xG) for Wolverhampton and 1.04 for Bolton Wanderers, 2.83 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Wolverhampton or draw (1X) 80%, Bolton Wanderers or draw (X2) 44% and no draw (12) 75%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.