Millwall vs Lincoln City Prediction: Home win 39% (17 Oct 2026)

EFL Championship17 October 2026The Den, London10°19 km/h

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MillwallLow block & direct

Lincoln CityLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Millwall (39%)Best value by the model: 2 · Lincoln City @ 3.80 (+13 %)

1 · Millwall 39%X 31%30% Lincoln City · 2

39%

31%

30%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Millwall vs Lincoln City (EFL Championship, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Millwall win 39%, draw 31%, Lincoln City win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Millwall 1.32, Lincoln City 1.00. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%. Double chance: Millwall or draw 70%, Lincoln City or draw 61%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Millwall – Lincoln City

Erik Lindberg · 12 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT:

The numbers suggest a tight contest, reflecting their similar profiles. Both teams favor a low defence and direct style, which might not open the floodgates for goals. The model's lean toward the hosts comes with a 39% probability, reflecting their slight advantage in points. However, the expected goals tell a more nuanced story, with Millwall projected at 1.32 and Lincoln at 1.00, hinting at a close affair.

Digging into recent form, Millwall holds a narrow edge with 14 points to Lincoln's 11. However, Lincoln's xPoints of 15.9 suggest they might have been unlucky so far. The hosts' xG per match at 1.9 edges Lincoln's 1.6, but the defensive metrics are almost neck-and-neck, with xGA at 1.3 for Millwall versus Lincoln's 1.2. This balance might support the 1-1 or 1-0 scorelines as most likely outcomes, each at 13%. The possibility of a 0-0 result, sitting at 10%, underscores a potential for a low-scoring encounter.

The betting market sees value in backing Lincoln City, with odds of 3.8 at LeoVegas offering a 13% edge, and the draw at odds of 3.6 providing an 11% edge according to the model. Though Millwall is favored slightly, these value opportunities suggest the visitors could defy expectations. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 41%, meaning the under is slightly favored, aligning with a cautious prediction of a match that might not surpass two goals.

In a match that seems destined for defensive discipline, a tight scoreline such as 1-0 or 1-1 emerges as the most plausible outcome. Yet, the value lies with the visitors and the draw, perhaps inviting a savvy punt on Lincoln City or a stalemate as the smart play.

Millwall

Form WLDDW

League ranking xG #2xGA #10xT #3xP/match #3Points #9

Key players

Jake CooperCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.04
Caleb Joaquin TaylorCBxG 0.15 · xT 0.06
Casper De NorreCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.13

Lincoln City

Form DWWLL

League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #11xP/match #1Points #16

Key players

Robert StreetLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.33
Ben HouseFxG 0.23 · xT 0.01
Ivan VarfolomieievFxG 0.06 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Millwall – Lincoln City

Predicted score matrix

Lincoln City →

Millwall →

0–010.2%

0–19.4%

0–24.9%

0–31.6%

0–4+0.5%

1–012.6%

1–113.3%

1–26.5%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.7%

2–08.6%

2–18.6%

2–24.3%

2–31.4%

2–4+0.4%

3–03.8%

3–13.8%

3–21.9%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–01.7%

4+–11.7%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-013%
3.0-010%
4.0-19%
5.2-09%

Expected goals

1,32–1,00

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

320%

412%

5+9%

Under 2,559%

–

Over 2,541%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Millwall or draw (1X)72%
Under 3.5 goals79%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Millwall or draw (1X)72%
Under 2.5 goals59%
Taïryk Arconte to score20%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Taïryk Arconte to score20%
Yunus Emre Konak to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Lincoln City30% probability@3.80LeoVegasEV+13%reference odds
X · Draw31% probability@3.60LeoVegasEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Millwall	X	2 · Lincoln City
LeoVegas	1.85	EV+ 11% 3.60	EV+ 13% 3.80

Odds updated 11 Oct, 13:37

Odds movement

10 %

53 %48 %

1.85 → 1.85

X-1 %

28 %23 %

3.65 → 3.60

20 %

27 %22 %

3.80 → 3.80

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 11/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Millwall

Lincoln City

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Millwall (16–15)

Lincoln City (7–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Millwall

Lincoln City

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Millwall

Lincoln City

The teams in numbers

Performance	Millwall	Lincoln City
Points	14	11
xPoints	14.9	15.9
xG per match	1.9	1.6
xGA per match	1.3	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.35	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.22

Playing style	Millwall	Lincoln City
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.36
Field tilt	0.38	0.32
xT per match	1.2	1
xTA per match	0.97	0.89
Won balls, offensive half	30	30
Pressing intensity	0.24	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.29	0.27
Entries into the box per match	15	15
Entries into the box against	11	14
Pass completion %	0.7	0.63
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.6
Passes per match	268	204
Passes against per match	339	424
Switches of play per match	25	18.4
Long balls per match	35	30

Set pieces	Millwall	Lincoln City
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.1
Corners per match	4.3	3.9
Corners against per match	7	7.5
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.49	0.6

Other	Millwall	Lincoln City
Throw-in control	0.7	0.7

The goalkeepers	Maxime Teremoana Crocombe (Millwall)	George Wickens (Lincoln City)
Saves	13	30
Save %	62%	73%
xG prevented	37%	48%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Millwall

Fixtures, form & tips

Lincoln City

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Millwall vs Lincoln City according to our model?

The model gives Millwall a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Millwall 39%, draw 31%, Lincoln City 30%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Millwall vs Lincoln City?

The model expects 1.32 goals (xG) for Millwall and 1.00 for Lincoln City, 2.32 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Millwall or draw (1X) 70%, Lincoln City or draw (X2) 61% and no draw (12) 69%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.