Burnley vs Wolverhampton Prediction: Away win 45% (16 Oct 2026)

EFL Championship16 October 2026 21:00 CESTTurf Moor, Burnley9°1,8 mm20 km/h

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BurnleyPossession control

WolverhamptonPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Wolverhampton (45%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.12 (+18 %)

1 · Burnley 30%X 26%45% Wolverhampton · 2

30%

26%

45%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Burnley vs Wolverhampton (EFL Championship, Friday, 16 October 2026): Burnley win 30%, draw 26%, Wolverhampton win 45%. Expected goals (xG): Burnley 1.12, Wolverhampton 1.33. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%. Double chance: Burnley or draw 55%, Wolverhampton or draw 70%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Burnley – Wolverhampton

Marcus Johansson · 12 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Two possession-focused teams clash as Burnley and Wolverhampton meet in what is shaping up to be a closely contested battle. Both sides favor controlling the ball, yet Wolverhampton’s recent form and statistical edge suggest they might have the upper hand. The visitors have a stronger points tally and lead in expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA), indicating a more balanced approach on both sides of the ball. With Burnley scoring in 14 consecutive league matches, we could witness a tightly knit tactical duel on the pitch.

Despite the home advantage, Burnley will find it challenging against a well-structured Wolverhampton side. The visitors boast a lower xGA per match at just 0.99 compared to Burnley’s 1.4, hinting at a potentially robust defensive performance. The model leans toward Wolverhampton, assigning them a 45% chance of winning, a notable edge over Burnley’s 30%. While the most likely scoreline is pegged at 1-1, Wolverhampton’s 0-1 victory at 11% appears a solid prospect given their defensive resilience.

The weather forecast, with over 6 mm of rain expected, could further dampen attacking efforts and is already integrated into the model’s numbers. The likelihood of fewer than 2.5 goals sits at a firm 56%, and with both teams adept at holding possession, a low-scoring affair feels probable. The over/under tilt leans clearly under, with a 44% chance of crossing the 2.5 goals threshold.

For bettors, Wolverhampton's recent form, defensive strength, and statistical superiority lend credibility to backing them for a victory. While nothing in football is certain, the data implies Wolverhampton have the edge to secure three points.

Burnley

Form LDLDW

League ranking xG #16xGA #16xT #17xP/match #18Points #22

Key players

Jacob Bruun LarsenLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.19
Kyle WalkerCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.16
Reo HatateLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.02

Wolverhampton

Form LDWWL

League ranking xG #6xGA #1xT #8xP/match #2Points #6

Key players

Toti GomesCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
Nasser DjigaCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.05
Fer LópezRWxG 0.35 · xT 0.17

Match prediction: Burnley – Wolverhampton

Predicted score matrix

Wolverhampton →

Burnley →

0–09.0%

0–111.1%

0–27.7%

0–33.4%

0–4+1.5%

1–09.3%

1–113.2%

1–28.6%

1–33.8%

1–4+1.7%

2–05.4%

2–17.2%

2–24.8%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.9%

3–02.0%

3–12.7%

3–21.8%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.7%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.6%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-09%
4.0-09%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

1,12–1,33

Both teams to score

50%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@2.12EV+18%

Over 2,544%

@1.77

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Wolverhampton or draw (X2)69%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Wolverhampton or draw (X2)69%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Thomas Glyn Doyle to score16%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score50%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Mohamed Zeki Amdouni to score23%
André Trindade da Costa Neto to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.556% probability@2.12Betfair ExchangeEV+18%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Burnley	X	2 · Wolverhampton
Betfair Exchange	3.10	3.70	2.18

Odds updated 13 Oct, 06:58

Odds movement

10 %

33 %28 %

3.10 → 3.10

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.70 → 3.70

20 %

46 %41 %

2.18 → 2.18

Betfair Exchange · 2 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 13/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Burnley have scored in 14 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Burnley

Wolverhampton

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Burnley (13–17)

Wolverhampton (15–11)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Burnley

Wolverhampton

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Burnley

Wolverhampton

The teams in numbers

Performance	Burnley	Wolverhampton
Points	7	14
xPoints	11.5	14
xG per match	1.2	1.6
xGA per match	1.4	0.99
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.17	0.32
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.29	0.16

Playing style	Burnley	Wolverhampton
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.29
Field tilt	0.44	0.49
xT per match	0.89	1.1
xTA per match	0.98	0.88
Won balls, offensive half	16	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.23	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.23
Entries into the box per match	9	13
Entries into the box against	13	12
Pass completion %	0.77	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.7
Passes per match	380	375
Passes against per match	403	320
Switches of play per match	32.9	30.7
Long balls per match	33	30

Set pieces	Burnley	Wolverhampton
xG from free kicks	0	0.03
Corners per match	4.6	6.2
Corners against per match	4.5	4.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.32	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.75	0.61

Other	Burnley	Wolverhampton
Throw-in control	0.69	0.75

The goalkeepers	Max Weiß (Burnley)	José Sá (Wolverhampton)
Saves	16	18
Save %	50%	69%
xG prevented	34%	45%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Burnley

Fixtures, form & tips

Wolverhampton

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Burnley vs Wolverhampton according to our model?

The model gives Wolverhampton a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Burnley 30%, draw 26%, Wolverhampton 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Burnley vs Wolverhampton?

The model expects 1.12 goals (xG) for Burnley and 1.33 for Wolverhampton, 2.45 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Burnley or draw (1X) 55%, Wolverhampton or draw (X2) 70% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.