01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Southampton or draw (X2)68%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
EFL ChampionshipCarrow Road, Norwich13°19 km/h
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Norwich CityPossession controlvs
SouthamptonPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Southampton (40%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.60 (+12 %)
Norwich City vs Southampton · EFL Championship
1 · Norwich City 34%X 27%40% Southampton · 2
34%
27%
40%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Norwich City vs Southampton (EFL Championship, Wednesday, 14 October 2026): Norwich City win 34%, draw 27%, Southampton win 40%. Expected goals (xG): Norwich City 1.35, Southampton 1.61. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Norwich City or draw 60%, Southampton or draw 66%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 6 October 2026.
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Analysis: Norwich City – Southampton
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Norwich City find themselves in a tough spot, having lost three consecutive matches. This troubling form meets Southampton's knack for finding the back of the net, evidenced by their nine-game scoring streak. Both teams share a similar playing style, focusing on possession control, which could lead to a tightly contested midfield battle. The model gives a slight edge to the visitors, projecting a 40% probability for a Southampton win, while Norwich has a 34% chance. The most likely outcome of 1-1, with a 12% probability, suggests a close affair.
Despite Southampton's recent success in finding goals, the underlying numbers reveal a more nuanced picture. Norwich City's expected points (13.9) actually eclipse Southampton's (13.0), hinting that the hosts might have been unlucky in recent outings. Yet, the Saints' slight edge in expected goals per match (1.7 to Norwich's 1.6) and expected goals against (1.3 vs. 1.4) maintains their upper hand. The model leans toward a 1-2 Southampton victory (9% chance), aligning with their superior points tally this season — 17 to Norwich's 9.
For bettors, the value might lie in the unexpected. Despite a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals, there’s an intriguing edge in backing the under. Both Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds of 2.6 for under 2.5 goals, which the model rates at 43%, presenting a 12% edge. Moreover, the under 1.5 goals at 5.49 odds with Betsafe, rated by the model at 20%, offers a 10% edge for those anticipating a more subdued scoreline.
Analyzing the numbers, this contest leans toward a Southampton triumph, likely a narrow 1-2 victory. However, the shrewd punter might find value in expecting fewer goals, particularly with the under 2.5 goals market showing promising value at current odds.
Norwich CityForm WWLLL
League ranking xG #8xGA #15xT #14xP/match #7Points #18
Key players
- Kenny McleanCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.13
- Pelle MattssonCMxG 0.24 · xT 0.08
- Oscar SchwartauLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.09
SouthamptonForm DWWLW
League ranking xG #5xGA #13xT #12xP/match #9Points #3
Key players
- Nathan Dean Joshua Wood-GordonCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
- Ryan Phelim ManningLWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.17
- Cyle Christopher LarinFxG 0.61 · xT 0.02
Match prediction: Norwich City – Southampton
Predicted score matrix
Southampton →
Norwich City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.5%
0–18.0%
0–26.7%
0–33.6%
0–4+2.1%
1
1–06.6%
1–111.6%
1–29.1%
1–34.9%
1–4+2.8%
2
2–04.7%
2–17.6%
2–26.1%
2–33.3%
2–4+1.9%
3
3–02.1%
3–13.4%
3–22.8%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.6%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.0-27%
Expected goals
1,35–1,61
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.60EV+12%
Over 2,557%
@1.50
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Southampton or draw (X2)68%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Cyle Christopher Larin to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Cyle Christopher Larin to score29%
- James Patrick Bree to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.543% probability@2.60BetsafeEV+12%reference odds
- Under 2.543% probability@2.60NordicbetEV+12%reference odds
- Under 1.520% probability@5.49BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Norwich City | X | 2 · Southampton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.40 | 3.60 | EV+ 7% 2.70 |
| LeoVegas | 2.40 | EV+ 2% 3.80 | EV+ 7% 2.70 |
| Nordicbet | 2.40 | 3.60 | EV+ 7% 2.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.39 | EV+ 1% 3.77 | EV+ 7% 2.70 |
Odds updated 13 Oct, 08:15
Odds movement
10 %
42 %37 %
2.40 → 2.39
X+1 %
28 %23 %
3.75 → 3.77
20 %
38 %33 %
2.70 → 2.70
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 13/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesNorwich City 1Draw 0Southampton 1
Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.
Key facts
- Norwich City have lost 3 in a row.
- Southampton have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Norwich City
Southampton
Norwich City (17–19)
Southampton (20–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Norwich City
Southampton
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Norwich City
Southampton
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Norwich City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 9 | 17 |
| xPoints | 13.9 | 13 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.33 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.13 | 0.25 |
| Playing style | Norwich City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.57 |
| xT per match | 0.95 | 0.97 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 0.98 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 21 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.2 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 340 | 436 |
| Passes against per match | 315 | 290 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.5 | 24.8 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Norwich City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 5.2 |
| Corners against per match | 4.5 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| Other | Norwich City | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.77 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Vladan Kovačević (Norwich City) | Daniel Peretz (Southampton) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 25 |
| Save % | 55% | 76% |
| xG prevented | 36% | 44% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Burnley – Charlton Athletic13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Wolverhampton – Bolton Wanderers13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Cardiff City – Watford13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Wrexham – West Bromwich Albion13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Bristol City – Blackburn Rovers13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Millwall – Swansea City13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Stoke City – Middlesbrough13 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Birmingham City – Preston North End13 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Queens Park Rangers – Derby County14 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Norwich City vs Southampton according to our model?
The model gives Southampton a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Norwich City 34%, draw 27%, Southampton 40%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Norwich City vs Southampton?
The model expects 1.35 goals (xG) for Norwich City and 1.61 for Southampton, 2.97 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Norwich City or draw (1X) 60%, Southampton or draw (X2) 66% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.