01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance West Ham United or draw (X2)69%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
EFL ChampionshipSincil Bank, Lincoln13°25 km/h
Läs på svenska
Lincoln CityLow block & directvs
West Ham UnitedBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · West Ham United (44%)
Lincoln City vs West Ham United · EFL Championship
1 · Lincoln City 29%X 27%44% West Ham United · 2
29%
27%
44%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lincoln City vs West Ham United (EFL Championship, Wednesday, 14 October 2026): Lincoln City win 29%, draw 27%, West Ham United win 44%. Expected goals (xG): Lincoln City 1.19, West Ham United 1.43. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Lincoln City or draw 56%, West Ham United or draw 71%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 6 October 2026.
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Analysis: Lincoln City – West Ham United
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
West Ham United's unbeaten streak of seven league matches gives them a psychological edge as they prepare to face Lincoln City. The visitors have been prolific in front of goal, finding the net in nine consecutive league games. This offensive momentum aligns with their balanced and physical style, which could pose significant challenges for the hosts' low defence and direct approach.
Despite West Ham's recent form, the xPoints tell a different story. Lincoln City boasts 15.9 xPoints compared to West Ham's 13.9, suggesting the hosts have perhaps been unlucky not to convert performances into points. Their expected goals per match (1.6) also hold up reasonably well against West Ham's 2.1, indicating that Lincoln can create scoring opportunities, albeit with less efficiency.
The small head-to-head sample does not provide substantial insight, so the focus should remain on current form and expected goals. With Lincoln City having a lower xGA per match (1.2) compared to West Ham (1.3), the home side could potentially nullify some of the visitors' attacking threats. However, West Ham's ability to score consistently complicates predictions of a clean sheet for either side.
With a 44% model probability backing West Ham and a most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 13%, Lincoln's home value shines through in the betting market. LeoVegas offers odds of 4.75 for a home win, presenting a 37% edge as per the model's 29% assessment. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer slightly lower odds of 4.65, yet still reflect a significant calculated value.
While the model marginally favors West Ham and a 0-1 or 1-2 scoreline seems plausible, the potential value on a Lincoln City win makes it an intriguing proposition for risk-takers. Ultimately, the numbers lean towards a tight contest with under 2.5 goals hovering around a coin flip at 49%, reinforcing the possibility of a narrow, hard-fought affair.
Lincoln CityForm DWWLL
League ranking xG #7xGA #7xT #11xP/match #1Points #16
Key players
- Robert StreetLWxG 0.32 · xT 0.33
- Ben HouseFxG 0.23 · xT 0.01
- Ivan VarfolomieievFxG 0.06 · xT 0.04
West Ham UnitedForm WWWDD
League ranking xG #1xGA #9xT #6xP/match #6Points #4
Key players
- Jarrod BowenRWxG 0.62 · xT 0.35
- Konstantinos MavropanosCBxG 0.35 · xT 0.08
- Maximilian KilmanCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Lincoln City – West Ham United
Predicted score matrix
West Ham United →
Lincoln City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.6%
0–110.1%
0–27.5%
0–33.6%
0–4+1.8%
1
1–08.3%
1–112.7%
1–28.9%
1–34.2%
1–4+2.1%
2
2–05.1%
2–17.4%
2–25.3%
2–32.5%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–02.0%
3–12.9%
3–22.1%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.1%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,19–1,43
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@2.19EV+12%
Over 2,549%
@2.41EV+17%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance West Ham United or draw (X2)69%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Jarrod Bowen to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Jarrod Bowen to score29%
- Yunus Emre Konak to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · West Ham United44% probability@3.21LeoVegasEV+42%reference odds
- 1 · Lincoln City29% probability@4.85BetsafeEV+40%reference odds
- 1 · Lincoln City29% probability@4.85NordicbetEV+40%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lincoln City | X | 2 · West Ham United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 40% 4.85 | EV+ 4% 3.85 | 1.68 |
| LeoVegas | 2.08 | 3.12 | EV+ 42% 3.21 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 40% 4.85 | EV+ 4% 3.85 | 1.68 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 27% 4.39 | EV+ 10% 4.10 | 1.70 |
Odds updated 13 Oct, 08:36
Odds movement
1-2 %
24 %19 %
4.50 → 4.39
X-3 %
25 %20 %
4.24 → 4.10
2+2 %
59 %54 %
1.67 → 1.70
Over 2,5+2 %
59 %54 %
1.66 → 1.69
Pinnacle · 4 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 13/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- West Ham United are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
- West Ham United have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lincoln City
West Ham United
Lincoln City (7–11)
West Ham United (23–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lincoln City
West Ham United
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lincoln City
West Ham United
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lincoln City | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 16 |
| xPoints | 15.9 | 13.9 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 2.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | Lincoln City | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| Field tilt | 0.32 | 0.63 |
| xT per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.89 | 0.71 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.63 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.6 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 204 | 442 |
| Passes against per match | 424 | 301 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.4 | 33 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Lincoln City | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.1 | 0.17 |
| Corners per match | 3.9 | 6.4 |
| Corners against per match | 7.5 | 4.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.69 |
| Other | Lincoln City | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.7 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | George Wickens (Lincoln City) | Mads Hermansen (West Ham United) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 30 | 22 |
| Save % | 73% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 48% | 36% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Burnley – Charlton Athletic13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Wolverhampton – Bolton Wanderers13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Cardiff City – Watford13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Wrexham – West Bromwich Albion13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Bristol City – Blackburn Rovers13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Millwall – Swansea City13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Stoke City – Middlesbrough13 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Birmingham City – Preston North End13 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Queens Park Rangers – Derby County14 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lincoln City vs West Ham United according to our model?
The model gives West Ham United a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lincoln City 29%, draw 27%, West Ham United 44%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Lincoln City vs West Ham United?
The model expects 1.19 goals (xG) for Lincoln City and 1.43 for West Ham United, 2.62 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Lincoln City or draw (1X) 56%, West Ham United or draw (X2) 71% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.