01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Portsmouth to win48%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
EFL ChampionshipFratton Park, Portsmouth15°0,3 mm16 km/h
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PortsmouthCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Sheffield UnitedLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Portsmouth (48%)
Portsmouth vs Sheffield United · EFL Championship
1 · Portsmouth 48%X 28%24% Sheffield United · 2
48%
28%
24%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Portsmouth vs Sheffield United (EFL Championship, Wednesday, 14 October 2026): Portsmouth win 48%, draw 28%, Sheffield United win 24%. Expected goals (xG): Portsmouth 1.53, Sheffield United 1.06. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Portsmouth or draw 76%, Sheffield United or draw 52%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 6 October 2026.
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Analysis: Portsmouth – Sheffield United
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The model leans towards a tight scoreline, with 1-1 the most likely outcome (13%), followed by 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9%), reflecting Portsmouth's slight edge. The over/under 2.5 goals market sits evenly poised at 48%, reflecting the balance in the expected goals figures. This suggests a cautious approach might be prudent for over-backers.
With a 48% model probability for a Portsmouth victory, the numbers point to the hosts as favorites against Sheffield United, despite a head-to-head record that leans heavily towards the visitors. Portsmouth's lack of recent success against Sheffield United, failing to win in their last four meetings, might raise eyebrows. However, the small sample size of these encounters offers limited insight compared to current form and expected goals.
Portsmouth's edge in xG per match (1.3 vs 1.1) and a more reliable defense (xGA of 1.2 compared to 1.6) suggests they should control the match, especially given their counter-attacking style that can exploit Sheffield's defensive vulnerabilities. The home side's strategy of utilizing crosses could be particularly effective against a team that sits back, inviting pressure.
Despite having more points on the board, Sheffield United's underlying stats suggest they've been riding their luck. Their defensive frailties and tendency to play direct football could leave them exposed to Portsmouth's counter-attacks. The visitors' higher actual points tally (12 vs 8) over Portsmouth is deceptive when considering their lower xPoints (11.5 vs 10.5), indicating they might not sustain their current pace.
For those looking to capitalize on model insights, there's notable value in backing Portsmouth at odds of 2.25 with LeoVegas. This represents a 7% edge, highlighting the potential of the home side to break their recent poor run against the visitors. The numbers, in this context, might just favor a change in fortunes.
PortsmouthForm LWDDL
League ranking xG #13xGA #3xT #15xP/match #14Points #19
Key players
- Zak SwansonLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
- Colby BishopFxG 0.13 · xT 0.10
- Madiodio DiaCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.09
Sheffield UnitedForm LWLLW
League ranking xG #19xGA #22xT #24xP/match #17Points #13
Key players
- Tom CannonFxG 0.39 · xT 0.01
- Sydie PeckCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.12
- Sam MccallumLBxG 0.09 · xT 0.13
Match prediction: Portsmouth – Sheffield United
Predicted score matrix
Sheffield United →
Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.9%
0–17.6%
0–24.2%
0–31.5%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–011.2%
1–112.5%
1–26.4%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.8%
2–19.3%
2–24.9%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–04.5%
3–14.7%
3–22.5%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–02.4%
4+–12.5%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,53–1,06
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.89
Over 2,548%
@1.93
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Portsmouth to win48%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Abu Bakarr Kamara to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Patrick James Bamford to score21%
- Ebrima Adams to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Portsmouth48% probability@2.25LeoVegasEV+7%reference odds
- 1 · Portsmouth48% probability@2.24PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Portsmouth | X | 2 · Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | EV+ 7% 2.25 | 3.45 | 3.20 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 7% 2.24 | 3.51 | 3.11 |
Odds updated 13 Oct, 05:36
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesPortsmouth 0Draw 1Sheffield United 3
Goals: 1–6 (⌀ 1,8)
Head-to-head based on Championship data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Portsmouth
Sheffield United
Portsmouth (9–11)
Sheffield United (12–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Portsmouth
Sheffield United
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Portsmouth
Sheffield United
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Portsmouth | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 12 |
| xPoints | 10.5 | 11.5 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Portsmouth | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.39 |
| xT per match | 0.93 | 0.59 |
| xTA per match | 0.86 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 24 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.64 |
| Passes per match | 303 | 254 |
| Passes against per match | 262 | 390 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.5 | 17.3 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Portsmouth | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 6.5 | 2.8 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.66 |
| Other | Portsmouth | Sheffield United |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Daniel Bielica (Portsmouth) | Michael Cooper (Sheffield United) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 15 | 30 |
| Save % | 79% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 65% | 63% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Burnley – Charlton Athletic13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Wolverhampton – Bolton Wanderers13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Cardiff City – Watford13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Wrexham – West Bromwich Albion13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Bristol City – Blackburn Rovers13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Millwall – Swansea City13 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Stoke City – Middlesbrough13 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Birmingham City – Preston North End13 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Queens Park Rangers – Derby County14 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Portsmouth vs Sheffield United according to our model?
The model gives Portsmouth a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Portsmouth 48%, draw 28%, Sheffield United 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Portsmouth vs Sheffield United?
The model expects 1.53 goals (xG) for Portsmouth and 1.06 for Sheffield United, 2.58 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Portsmouth or draw (1X) 76%, Sheffield United or draw (X2) 52% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.