01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Southampton to win63%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
EFL ChampionshipSt Mary's Stadium, Southampton10°18 km/h
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SouthamptonPossession controlvs
Bolton WanderersPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Southampton (63%)
Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers · EFL Championship
1 · Southampton 63%X 20%17% Bolton Wanderers · 2
63%
20%
17%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers (EFL Championship, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Southampton win 63%, draw 20%, Bolton Wanderers win 17%. Expected goals (xG): Southampton 2.08, Bolton Wanderers 1.09. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 58%. Double chance: Southampton or draw 83%, Bolton Wanderers or draw 37%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Southampton – Bolton Wanderers
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Southampton's impressive ability to score in nine consecutive league matches sets the stage for a contest where their attacking prowess will be pivotal. Hosting Bolton Wanderers, the Saints are poised to leverage their 61% all-time home win rate (from 28 matches played), emphasizing their dominance on familiar turf. Both teams favor possession-based football, suggesting a tactical battle in the midfield. However, Southampton's knack for converting possession into goals gives them a distinct edge.
The model numbers corroborate this advantage. Southampton's expected goals (xG) of 1.7 per match outshines Bolton's 1.3. This suggests that the hosts are more adept at creating high-quality chances. On the defensive side, Southampton also hold the upper hand, with an expected goals against (xGA) of 1.3 compared to Bolton's 1.6. This defensive solidity, coupled with their attacking efficiency, paints a picture of a likely home victory.
With the probability of over 2.5 goals resting at 61% and both teams to score at 58%, goals seem likely, though not overwhelmingly certain. Southampton's recent form and their ability to find the back of the net consistently point towards a potential 2-1 victory. Bolton, while not negligible, face a significant challenge breaking through the hosts’ defenses often enough to tip the balance.
In terms of betting value, Southampton's win probability at 63% is higher than many bookmakers might reflect. If odds from Bet365 or similar offer favorable terms on a Southampton win, this could represent a value play, though naturally, no outcome is a guarantee. For those seeking action with a reasonable risk, backing the home side seems the sharpest angle given the current dynamics.
SouthamptonForm DWWLW
League ranking xG #5xGA #13xT #12xP/match #9Points #3
Key players
- Nathan Dean Joshua Wood-GordonCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
- Ryan Phelim ManningLWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.17
- Cyle Christopher LarinFxG 0.61 · xT 0.02
Bolton WanderersForm LLWWL
League ranking xG #15xGA #21xT #10xP/match #21Points #17
Key players
- Eoin ToalCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.03
- Josh SheehanCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.12
- Chris ForinoCBxG 0.12 · xT 0.03
Match prediction: Southampton – Bolton Wanderers
Predicted score matrix
Bolton Wanderers →
Southampton →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.5%
0–14.3%
0–22.5%
0–30.9%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–08.4%
1–19.8%
1–25.2%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.0%
2–19.9%
2–25.4%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–06.3%
3–16.9%
3–23.8%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–05.3%
4+–15.8%
4+–23.2%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-110%
- 2.1-110%
- 3.2-09%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-17%
Expected goals
2,08–1,09
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
–
Over 2,561%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Southampton to win63%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Cyle Christopher Larin to score36%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Cyle Christopher Larin to score36%
- Ethan Jay Osadebawen Erhahon to be booked25%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Southampton | X | 2 · Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas | 1.42 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
Odds updated 13 Oct, 04:36
Odds movement
1-2 %
67 %62 %
1.44 → 1.42
X+1 %
22 %17 %
4.70 → 4.75
2+4 %
18 %13 %
5.75 → 6.00
LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 10/10/2026 → 13/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Southampton have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
- Southampton win 61% of their home matches all-time (28 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Southampton
Bolton Wanderers
Southampton (20–10)
Bolton Wanderers (12–17)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Southampton
Bolton Wanderers
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Southampton
Bolton Wanderers
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Southampton | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 10 |
| xPoints | 13 | 10.1 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Southampton | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| xT per match | 0.97 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.98 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.78 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 436 | 354 |
| Passes against per match | 290 | 306 |
| Switches of play per match | 24.8 | 30.3 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Southampton | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.12 | 0.03 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 5.9 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.61 | 0.65 |
| Other | Southampton | Bolton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.66 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Daniel Peretz (Southampton) | Gavin Okeroghene Bazunu (Bolton Wanderers) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 17 |
| Save % | 76% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 44% | 67% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Queens Park Rangers – Derby County14 October 2026
- Norwich City – Southampton14 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Portsmouth – Sheffield United14 October 2026 20:45 CEST
- Lincoln City – West Ham United14 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Burnley – Wolverhampton16 October 2026 21:00 CEST
- Wrexham – Preston North End17 October 2026
- West Bromwich Albion – Blackburn Rovers17 October 2026
- Millwall – Lincoln City17 October 2026
- Norwich City – Portsmouth17 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers according to our model?
The model gives Southampton a 63% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Southampton 63%, draw 20%, Bolton Wanderers 17%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers?
The model expects 2.08 goals (xG) for Southampton and 1.09 for Bolton Wanderers, 3.17 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Southampton or draw (1X) 83%, Bolton Wanderers or draw (X2) 37% and no draw (12) 80%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.