01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Grimsby Town to win56%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
EFL League TwoWham Stadium, Accrington15°0,1 mm21 km/h
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Accrington StanleyCounter-attacks & crosses2–2
Grimsby TownPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Grimsby Town (56%)
Accrington Stanley – Grimsby Town · EFL League Two
1 · Accrington Stanley 20%X 24%56% Grimsby Town · 2
20%
24%
56%
Analysis: Accrington Stanley – Grimsby Town
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Grimsby Town enters with a commanding 56% win probability, indicating clear superiority in this League Two clash. The expected goals model underscores the visitors' edge, forecasting 1.56 goals for Grimsby against Accrington's 0.97. Grimsby's possession-based style contrasts sharply with the hosts' counter-attacking approach, with the numbers heavily favoring the visitors.
Despite a small head-to-head sample of four matches since 2023, Grimsby holds a slight advantage with two wins. The visitors also lead in both points and expected points, solidifying their position as favorites. Accrington's defensive frailties, conceding an average of 2.1 expected goals per match, could be costly against Grimsby's more efficient attack, which averages 2.0 xG per match.
For punters, the standout angle lies with Grimsby Town's odds of 1.98 at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The 11% edge on these odds represents strong value, aligned with the model's clear preference for an away win. Expect a low-scoring affair, with 0-1 or 0-2 looking plausible given Grimsby's defensive solidity and the hosts' struggle in attack.
Accrington StanleyForm DLDLL
League ranking xG #7xGA #23xT #5xP/match #15Points #22
Key players
- Josh Stanley Ronald WoodsFxG 0.60 · xT 0.05
- Charlie CatonFxG 0.57 · xT 0.05
- Donald LoveCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.30
Grimsby TownForm LDWDD
League ranking xG #3xGA #10xT #3xP/match #7Points #10
Key players
- Jayden Deslandes SweeneyLBxG 0.11 · xT 0.25
- Andy CookFxG 0.24 · xT 0.12
- Harvey RodgersRWBxG 0.15 · xT 0.08
Final score
2 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Accrington Stanley 20% · Draw 24% · Grimsby Town 56%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - GrimsbyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,98fair 8,54-18 %
MissMatchresultat - AccringtonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 12,92fair 21,90-41 %
MissMatch prediction: Accrington Stanley – Grimsby Town
Predicted score matrix
Grimsby Town →
Accrington Stanley →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.3%
0–112.1%
0–29.7%
0–35.1%
0–4+2.8%
1
1–07.4%
1–112.4%
1–29.4%
1–34.9%
1–4+2.7%
2
2–03.7%
2–15.8%
2–24.5%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–01.2%
3–11.9%
3–21.5%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.6%
4+–20.4%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-112%
- 3.0-210%
- 4.1-29%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
0,97–1,56
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
119%
226%
321%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,554%
@1.94EV+4%
Over 2,546%
@1.89
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Grimsby Town to win56%
- Under 2.5 goals54%
- Daniel Antony Rose to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals46%
- Daniel Antony Rose to score27%
- Devon Matthews to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Grimsby Town56% probability@1.98BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
- 2 · Grimsby Town56% probability@1.98BetssonEV+11%reference odds
- 2 · Grimsby Town56% probability@1.98NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Accrington Stanley | X | 2 · Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.55 | 3.40 | EV+ 11% 1.98 |
| Betsson | 3.55 | 3.40 | EV+ 11% 1.98 |
| Nordicbet | 3.55 | 3.40 | EV+ 11% 1.98 |
| Pinnacle | 3.60 | 3.74 | EV+ 11% 1.98 |
Odds updated 1 Sept, 09:35
Odds movement
1+5 %
29 %24 %
3.44 → 3.60
X+5 %
28 %23 %
3.57 → 3.74
2-2 %
50 %45 %
2.02 → 1.98
Over 2,5-4 %
52 %47 %
1.98 → 1.89
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 01/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesAccrington Stanley 1Draw 1Grimsby Town 2
Goals: 6–9 (⌀ 3,8)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Accrington Stanley
Grimsby Town
Accrington Stanley (4–7)
Grimsby Town (3–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Accrington Stanley
Grimsby Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Accrington Stanley
Grimsby Town
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Accrington Stanley | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 5 |
| xPoints | 3.6 | 5 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 2 |
| xGA per match | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.58 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.36 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Accrington Stanley | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.58 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.93 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 33 | 39 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.34 | 0.4 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| Passes per match | 237 | 306 |
| Passes against per match | 241 | 261 |
| Switches of play per match | 22 | 24.2 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Accrington Stanley | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 4.5 | 6.9 |
| Corners against per match | 5.4 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.29 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.71 | 0.5 |
| Other | Accrington Stanley | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Louie Moulden (Accrington Stanley) | Christy James Pym (Grimsby Town) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 9 | 7 |
| Save % | 60% | 78% |
| xG prevented | 58% | 64% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Accrington Stanley vs Grimsby Town according to our model?
The model gives Grimsby Town a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Accrington Stanley 20%, draw 24%, Grimsby Town 56%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.