Chesterfield vs Gillingham: Prediction & Odds (1 Sept 2026)

EFL League Two1 September 2026 20:45 CESTSMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield16°18 km/h

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ChesterfieldPossession control

1–1

GillinghamCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Chesterfield (60%)Best value by the model: 2 · Gillingham @ 6.30 (+7 %)

1 · Chesterfield 60%X 23%17% Gillingham · 2

60%

23%

17%

Analysis: Chesterfield – Gillingham

Oscar Nilsson · 31 August 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Chesterfield's possession-heavy game faces off against Gillingham's counter-attacking strategy in a League Two clash that's more intriguing than the odds suggest. With Chesterfield claiming 60% probability for a win, they look poised to dominate the match through ball control and patient buildup. The expected goals (xG) tilt in their favor too, standing at 1.74 against Gillingham’s 0.79, hinting at the hosts’ ability to create more meaningful chances.

Despite being slight underdogs in the head-to-head record since 2023, having only won one of their last four encounters and losing twice, Chesterfield's recent form and statistics suggest they hold a tangible edge. The small sample size of four matches shouldn’t overshadow the current data. Chesterfield edges ahead in both points (3 vs. 2) and expected points (4.4 vs. 3.7), reinforcing their status as favorites.

The model’s second most likely scoreline prediction, 2-0 (12%), complements Chesterfield's defensive resilience, evidenced by an expected goals against (xGA) of just 1.2 per match compared to Gillingham’s 1.4. While the likelihood of over 2.5 goals sits at a moderate 46%, the game is expected to remain relatively low-scoring, aligning with a 1-0 or 2-0 result. Both teams to score is at 45%, underscoring the probability of the visitors’ attack struggling to break through the home defense.

From a betting perspective, there's noteworthy value in backing Gillingham at 6.3 odds with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, given the model's 17% probability for a Gillingham win. This 7% edge is a sharp angle for those willing to back an upset, even if the hosts seem primed for victory.

Chesterfield

Form LDLWL

League ranking xG #6xGA #9xT #17xP/match #11Points #16

Key players

Lee BonisFxG 0.73 · xT -0.13
Liam MandevilleCMxG 0.37 · xT -0.03
Lewis GordonLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.02

Gillingham

Form LWLDD

League ranking xG #19xGA #13xT #14xP/match #14Points #21

Key players

Ronan Aiden Connolly Shea Chapman HaleFxG 0.24 · xT -0.04
James Robert BrophyFxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
William Neil GoodwinFxG 0.37 · xT 0.00

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Chesterfield 60% · Draw 23% · Gillingham 17%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - ChesterfieldBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,86fair 7,64-23 %

Miss

Matchresultat - GillinghamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 26,87fair 36,08-26 %

Miss

Match prediction: Chesterfield – Gillingham

Predicted score matrix

Gillingham →

Chesterfield →

0–08.3%

0–16.0%

0–22.5%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–013.5%

1–111.3%

1–24.3%

1–31.1%

1–4+0.3%

2–012.0%

2–19.5%

2–23.8%

2–31.0%

2–4+0.2%

3–07.0%

3–15.5%

3–22.2%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–04.5%

4+–13.6%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.2-012%
3.1-111%
4.2-110%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,74–0,79

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,554%

@1.83

Over 2,546%

@2.01

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Chesterfield to win60%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Chesterfield to win60%
Under 2.5 goals54%
Dilan Kumar Markanday to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals46%
Dilan Kumar Markanday to score27%
Armani George Little to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Gillingham17% probability@6.30BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
2 · Gillingham17% probability@6.30BetssonEV+7%reference odds
2 · Gillingham17% probability@6.30NordicbetEV+7%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Chesterfield	X	2 · Gillingham
Betsafe	1.55	3.60	EV+ 7% 6.30
Betsson	1.55	3.60	EV+ 7% 6.30
Nordicbet	1.55	3.60	EV+ 7% 6.30
Pinnacle	1.59	3.95	5.77

Odds updated 1 Sept, 10:31

Odds movement

1+6 %

63 %58 %

1.50 → 1.59

X-3 %

26 %21 %

4.06 → 3.95

2-7 %

18 %13 %

6.18 → 5.77

Over 2,5+4 %

51 %46 %

1.93 → 2.01

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 01/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Chesterfield 1Draw 1Gillingham 2

Goals: 3–6 (⌀ 2,2)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Chesterfield

Gillingham

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Chesterfield (2–3)

Gillingham (1–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Chesterfield

Gillingham

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Chesterfield

Gillingham

The teams in numbers

Performance	Chesterfield	Gillingham
Points	3	2
xPoints	4.4	3.7
xG per match	1.6	0.94
xGA per match	1.2	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.57	0.04
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.22

Playing style	Chesterfield	Gillingham
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.61	0.41
xT per match	0.69	0.82
xTA per match	0.74	0.68
Won balls, offensive half	27	32
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.35	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.33
Entries into the box per match	12	11
Entries into the box against	9	14
Pass completion %	0.75	0.62
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.57
Passes per match	402	219
Passes against per match	288	290
Switches of play per match	46.6	15.2
Long balls per match	50	29

Set pieces	Chesterfield	Gillingham
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.14
Corners per match	2	4
Corners against per match	2.3	7.6
xG per corner	0.06	0
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.33	0.25
First touch, defensive corners %	0.71	0.61

Other	Chesterfield	Gillingham
Throw-in control	0.76	0.66

The goalkeepers	Ryan Thomas William Boot (Chesterfield)	Omar Jerome Beckles (Gillingham)
Saves	11	3
Save %	79%	100%
xG prevented	86%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Chesterfield

Fixtures, form & tips

Gillingham

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Chesterfield vs Gillingham according to our model?

The model gives Chesterfield a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Chesterfield 60%, draw 23%, Gillingham 17%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.