01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Fleetwood Town to win45%
- Under 3.5 goals75%
EFL League TwoHighbury Stadium, Fleetwood17°28 km/h
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Fleetwood TownLow block & direct1–1
Oldham AthleticLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Fleetwood Town (45%)
Fleetwood Town – Oldham Athletic · EFL League Two
1 · Fleetwood Town 45%X 27%27% Oldham Athletic · 2
45%
27%
27%
Analysis: Fleetwood Town – Oldham Athletic
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The sharpest angle lies in Fleetwood Town's odds at 2.42 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering a promising 10% value edge based on the model's 45% win probability for the hosts. Given the home side's recent form and the forecasted outcome, backing Fleetwood to win holds potential value despite Oldham's slight analytical edge.
Corrected paragraph 3: "Despite Fleetwood's unbeaten run, the analytics lean slightly towards Oldham in terms of xPoints and xG per match. Oldham's robust xGA of 1.0 per match suggests a strong defensive setup, likely making it difficult for Fleetwood to break them down. The overall 47% lean for over 2.5 goals further implies a moderately open affair, with both teams scoring rated barely above even at 51%."
Full corrected text:
Fleetwood Town have yet to taste victory against Oldham Athletic in their two head-to-head meetings since 2023, both ending in draws. This small sample size carries less weight than current form and expected goals, yet it hints at a competitive balance. Meanwhile, Fleetwood's unbeaten streak of seven league matches speaks to their resilience, even if their performance metrics suggest otherwise.
Fleetwood's penchant for a low defensive line and direct play matches Oldham's style. This tactical symmetry might lead to a congested midfield battle, dampening the potential for a high-scoring contest. The expected goals tell a story of attacking limitations, with Fleetwood at 1.43 and Oldham at 1.11, indicating a likely struggle to find the net. Interestingly, the model suggests a 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome at 13% probability, followed by a narrow 1-0 victory for the hosts at 11%.
Despite Fleetwood's unbeaten run, the analytics lean slightly towards Oldham in terms of xPoints and xG per match. Oldham's robust xGA of 1.0 per match suggests a strong defensive setup, likely making it difficult for Fleetwood to break them down. The overall 47% lean for over 2.5 goals further implies a moderately open affair, with both teams scoring rated barely above even at 51%.
The sharpest angle lies in Fleetwood Town's odds at 2.42 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, offering a promising 10% value edge based on the model's 45% win probability for the hosts. Given the home side's recent form and the forecasted outcome, backing Fleetwood to win holds potential value despite Oldham's slight analytical edge.
Fleetwood TownForm DDWDD
League ranking xG #17xGA #19xT #11xP/match #18Points #9
Key players
- Chedwyn Michael EvansFxG 0.26 · xT 0.03
- William James DaviesFxG 0.29 · xT 0.00
- Andrew Francis CannonRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.07
Oldham AthleticForm LWWLW
League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #24xP/match #2Points #6
Key players
- Keenan Appiah-ForsonFxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
- Favour FawunmiRWxG 0.27 · xT -0.02
- Calum KavanaghCAMxG 1.07 · xT 0.00
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Fleetwood Town 45% · Draw 27% · Oldham Athletic 27%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FleetwoodBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,00fair 9,64-7 %
MissMatchresultat - OldhamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,50fair 15,97-41 %
MissMatch prediction: Fleetwood Town – Oldham Athletic
Predicted score matrix
Oldham Athletic →
Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–08.2%
0–18.4%
0–24.8%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–010.9%
1–112.9%
1–26.9%
1–32.6%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.1%
2–19.0%
2–25.0%
2–31.8%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–03.9%
3–14.3%
3–22.4%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,43–1,11
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,508%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+11%
Under 2,553%
@1.85
Over 2,547%
@2.00
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Fleetwood Town to win45%
- Under 2.5 goals53%
- William James Davies to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals47%
- William James Davies to score26%
- Kane Drummond to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Fleetwood Town45% probability@2.61PinnacleEV+19%reference odds
- 1 · Fleetwood Town45% probability@2.55BetsafeEV+16%reference odds
- 1 · Fleetwood Town45% probability@2.55BetssonEV+16%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Fleetwood Town | X | 2 · Oldham Athletic |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 16% 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| Betsson | EV+ 16% 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 16% 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 19% 2.61 | 3.48 | 2.66 |
Odds updated 1 Sept, 09:35
Odds movement
1+10 %
40 %35 %
2.38 → 2.61
X+2 %
30 %25 %
3.42 → 3.48
2-6 %
37 %32 %
2.84 → 2.66
Over 2,5+2 %
51 %46 %
1.97 → 2.00
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 01/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesFleetwood Town 0Draw 2Oldham Athletic 0
Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Key facts
- Fleetwood Town are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Fleetwood Town
Oldham Athletic
Fleetwood Town (3–2)
Oldham Athletic (6–2)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Fleetwood Town
Oldham Athletic
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Fleetwood Town
Oldham Athletic
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Fleetwood Town | Oldham Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 6 |
| xPoints | 3.4 | 5.8 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.56 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.03 |
| Playing style | Fleetwood Town | Oldham Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.37 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 0.92 | 0.51 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.64 | 0.58 |
| Passes per match | 241 | 210 |
| Passes against per match | 311 | 342 |
| Switches of play per match | 15.4 | 17.4 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Fleetwood Town | Oldham Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 5.3 | 5.8 |
| Corners against per match | 4.7 | 6.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.59 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.56 |
| Other | Fleetwood Town | Oldham Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Jay Lynch (Fleetwood Town) | Mathew Anthony Hudson (Oldham Athletic) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 9 | 7 |
| Save % | 82% | 88% |
| xG prevented | 60% | 94% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Fleetwood Town vs Oldham Athletic according to our model?
The model gives Fleetwood Town a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fleetwood Town 45%, draw 27%, Oldham Athletic 27%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.