01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Rochdale or draw (1X)72%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
EFL League TwoSpotland, Rochdale15°19 km/h
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RochdalePossession control3–0
Shrewsbury TownCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Rochdale (43%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.91 (+11 %)
Rochdale – Shrewsbury Town · EFL League Two
1 · Rochdale 43%X 29%28% Shrewsbury Town · 2
43%
29%
28%
Analysis: Rochdale – Shrewsbury Town
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: Rochdale's current form is a worrying trend. They have slumped to three consecutive defeats, which hardly instills confidence for their clash against Shrewsbury Town. Despite the home advantage and a possession-based style, they’ve struggled to convert that into tangible results, reflected in their low xG of 0.71 per match. On the other hand, the visitors may only have 3 points from their matches so far, but their higher xG and more solid defense suggest they’re a tougher nut to crack.
The game projects to be a tight affair, with the model slightly favoring Rochdale. The expected goals lineup suggests a close contest: Rochdale at 1.33 and Shrewsbury at 1.02. This hints at potential frustration for Shrewsbury Town, who will likely rely on their counter-attacking strength and ability to deliver crosses. The most probable scorelines highlight low-scoring outcomes, with 1-1 leading the pack at a 13% likelihood, followed by 1-0 and 0-0.
Defensively, Rochdale is leaking goals at an xGA of 1.6, which may offer Shrewsbury opportunities to exploit their counter-attacking strategy. However, with only a 42% chance of the match going over 2.5 goals, it’s clear neither team is expected to run riot. The betting market seems to overlook the possibility of a goalless draw, providing an intriguing angle.
For those seeking value, the under 0.5 goals option is a bold punt. At odds of 12.0 available with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, the model sees a 10% chance of this happening, presenting an 18% edge. Given the conservative scoring forecasts, it’s a daring play in a match that might just fizzle rather than sizzle.
RochdaleForm LLL
League ranking xG #23xGA #18xT #18xP/match #23Points #24
Key players
- Daniel Thomas MossRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.29
- Ethan Reid Ebanks-LandellCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.06
- Ryan Henry EastCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.17
Shrewsbury TownForm DLLLW
League ranking xG #10xGA #11xT #6xP/match #12Points #18
Key players
- Tom SangRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.29
- Luca Anthony HooleCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
- Kevin BerkoeLWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.16
Final score
3 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Rochdale 43% · Draw 29% · Shrewsbury Town 28%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - RochdaleBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,73fair 11,56-33 %
MissMatchresultat - ShrewsburyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,87fair 19,32-44 %
MissMatch prediction: Rochdale – Shrewsbury Town
Predicted score matrix
Shrewsbury Town →
Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.9%
0–19.3%
0–25.0%
0–31.7%
0–4+0.5%
1
1–012.3%
1–113.3%
1–26.6%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–08.4%
2–18.6%
2–24.4%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–03.7%
3–13.8%
3–22.0%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–11.7%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.2-19%
Expected goals
1,33–1,02
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,4010%
122%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,558%
@1.91EV+6%
Over 2,542%
@1.93
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Rochdale or draw (1X)72%
- Under 2.5 goals58%
- Dajaune Anthony Brown to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals42%
- Dajaune Anthony Brown to score22%
- Luca Anthony Hoole to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.558% probability@1.91PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
- Under 2.558% probability@1.82BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
- Under 2.558% probability@1.82BetssonEV+6%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Rochdale | X | 2 · Shrewsbury Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.22 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
| Betsson | 2.22 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
| Nordicbet | 2.22 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
| Pinnacle | 2.23 | EV+ 4% 3.60 | 3.11 |
Odds updated 1 Sept, 11:35
Odds movement
1+10 %
47 %42 %
2.03 → 2.23
X-3 %
28 %23 %
3.71 → 3.60
2-5 %
32 %27 %
3.29 → 3.11
Over 2,5+2 %
52 %47 %
1.88 → 1.93
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 01/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Rochdale have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Rochdale
Shrewsbury Town
Rochdale (1–6)
Shrewsbury Town (2–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Rochdale
Shrewsbury Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Rochdale
Shrewsbury Town
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Rochdale | Shrewsbury Town |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 0 | 3 |
| xPoints | 2.2 | 4.2 |
| xG per match | 0.71 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.11 | 0.28 |
| Playing style | Rochdale | Shrewsbury Town |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| xT per match | 0.68 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.92 | 0.78 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 17 | 34 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.36 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| Entries into the box per match | 7 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.58 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.52 |
| Passes per match | 357 | 207 |
| Passes against per match | 247 | 277 |
| Switches of play per match | 23.9 | 15.4 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Rochdale | Shrewsbury Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.23 |
| Corners per match | 4.7 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.21 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.71 | 0.67 |
| Other | Rochdale | Shrewsbury Town |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Nils Ramming (Rochdale) | William Sam Douglas Harry Boyle (Shrewsbury Town) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 7 | 5 |
| Save % | 54% | 100% |
| xG prevented | 29% | 100% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Rochdale vs Shrewsbury Town according to our model?
The model gives Rochdale a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rochdale 43%, draw 29%, Shrewsbury Town 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.