01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Barnet to win54%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
EFL League TwoSt James Park, Exeter17°0,5 mm16 km/h
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Exeter CityLow block & direct1–1
BarnetBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 2 · Barnet (54%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.19 (+8 %)
Exeter City – Barnet · EFL League Two
1 · Exeter City 23%X 23%54% Barnet · 2
23%
23%
54%
Analysis: Exeter City – Barnet
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Barnet's unbeaten streak of 12 league matches stands out sharply against Exeter City's struggles. Despite Exeter's direct approach, their defence leaks, averaging 1.6 goals against per match. In contrast, Barnet boasts a solid backline with an xGA of just 0.98, suggesting they can handle Exeter's advances effectively.
The model gives Barnet a 54% chance of victory, reflecting their balanced and physical style and consistent goal-scoring ability, having found the net in 13 consecutive league matches. The most likely outcomes are closely contested, with a 1-1 result at 12% and a 0-1 at 11%, but the scoring edge leans towards the visitors. Expected goals further bolster Barnet's case, at 1.67 against Exeter's 1.02, indicating a higher probability of the visitors securing the win.
The sharpest angle here is the value on Barnet as the away side. With odds of 2.12 available at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a 15% edge over the implied probabilities. For punters focusing on pure value, backing Barnet at these odds aligns with the model's insights. Expect a tight match, but the scales tip in favor of the visitors, likely with a 0-1 or 1-2 final scoreline.
Exeter CityForm LWL
League ranking xG #8xGA #17xT #13xP/match #9Points #15
Key players
- Jayden WarehamFxG 0.90 · xT 0.00
- Edward George Martin JamesRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.08
- Jack Joseph FitzwaterCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.05
BarnetForm WWWWD
League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #8xP/match #5Points #1
Key players
- Kabongo TshimangaFxG 0.50 · xT -0.06
- Oisín Jack GallagherFxG 0.14 · xT 0.00
- Thomas Andrew KnowlesFxG 0.33 · xT 0.07
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Exeter City 23% · Draw 23% · Barnet 54%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - BarnetBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,59fair 7,33-24 %
MissMatchresultat - ExeterBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,75fair 19,38-45 %
MissMatch prediction: Exeter City – Barnet
Predicted score matrix
Barnet →
Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.1%
0–111.0%
0–29.5%
0–35.3%
0–4+3.2%
1
1–06.6%
1–111.9%
1–29.7%
1–35.4%
1–4+3.3%
2
2–03.5%
2–15.9%
2–24.9%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.7%
3
3–01.2%
3–12.0%
3–21.7%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–00.4%
4+–10.6%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-210%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,02–1,67
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,550%
@2.19EV+5%
Over 2,550%
@1.70
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Barnet to win54%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Scott John High to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Scott John High to score24%
- Ethan Craig Brierley to be booked20%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.550% probability@2.19PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
- Under 2.550% probability@2.12BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- Under 2.550% probability@2.12BetssonEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Exeter City | X | 2 · Barnet |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.70 | 3.60 | EV+ 2% 1.88 |
| Betsson | 3.70 | 3.60 | EV+ 2% 1.88 |
| Nordicbet | 3.70 | 3.60 | EV+ 2% 1.88 |
| Pinnacle | 3.65 | 3.97 | EV+ 3% 1.91 |
Odds updated 1 Sept, 10:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Barnet win since 30 August — the odds have shortened from 2.11 to 1.91 (−10%).
1+20 %
34 %24 %
3.03 → 3.65
X+4 %
29 %19 %
3.80 → 3.97
2-10 %
52 %42 %
2.11 → 1.91
Over 2,5+1 %
61 %51 %
1.68 → 1.70
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 30/08/2026 → 01/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Barnet are unbeaten in their last 12 league matches.
- Barnet have scored in 13 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Exeter City
Barnet
Exeter City (3–3)
Barnet (8–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Exeter City
Barnet
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Exeter City
Barnet
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Exeter City | Barnet |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 7 |
| xPoints | 4.7 | 5.3 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 0.98 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Exeter City | Barnet |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.34 | 0.7 |
| xT per match | 0.85 | 1 |
| xTA per match | 0.99 | 0.71 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 32 | 40 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.31 | 0.5 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.52 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.63 | 0.58 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.62 | 0.58 |
| Passes per match | 220 | 217 |
| Passes against per match | 406 | 190 |
| Switches of play per match | 13.7 | 13.2 |
| Long balls per match | 35 | 25 |
| Set pieces | Exeter City | Barnet |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 5.8 | 8.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 5.3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| Other | Exeter City | Barnet |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Jack Thomas Bycroft (Exeter City) | Matthew Aidan Cox (Barnet) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 11 | 4 |
| Save % | 79% | 50% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 30% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Exeter City vs Barnet according to our model?
The model gives Barnet a 54% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Exeter City 23%, draw 23%, Barnet 54%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.