Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town: Prediction & Odds (24 Oct 2026)

EFL League Two24 October 2026 13:30 CESTMemorial Stadium, Bristol11°19,9 mm35 km/h

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Bristol RoversLow block & direct

0–0

Swindon TownLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Bristol Rovers (53%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.05 (+22 %)

1 · Bristol Rovers 53%X 30%17% Swindon Town · 2

53%

30%

17%

Prediction summary

Final score 0–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town (EFL League Two, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Bristol Rovers win 53%, draw 30%, Swindon Town win 17%. Expected goals (xG): Bristol Rovers 1.78, Swindon Town 0.82. Most likely score: 1-0 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 47%. Double chance: Bristol Rovers or draw 83%, Swindon Town or draw 47%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Bristol Rovers – Swindon Town

Erik Lindberg · 23 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Bristol Rovers' current form is a cause for concern. Having lost their last four consecutive matches, they are searching for a way to halt the slide. However, the numbers do indicate a potential turnaround. The hosts have an expected goals (xG) figure of 1.78 in this matchup, significantly higher than Swindon Town's 0.82, underlining their superior attacking potential. Historically, Rovers have a strong home record, winning 55% of their 29 home matches all-time, suggesting they can bounce back despite the recent slump.

The head-to-head record between these sides is minimal and offers little predictive value. In the two encounters since 2023, the Rovers have yet to notch a win over Swindon, drawing once and losing once. However, with an edge in expected points (xPoints: 18.1 to 15.4) and a stark contrast in expected goals against (xGA: 1.2 vs. 1.9), the home side seems better positioned to control the game. Swindon's defense could be their undoing here, especially given both teams' similar direct play styles.

Weather may play a part in the goal tally — the rain forecast is likely already accounted for in the model, which suggests only a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals. The most probable result appears to be a narrow win for the Rovers, with a 1-0 scoreline favored at 13%. Both teams to score sits just below a coin flip at 47%.

For those seeking value, the draw priced at 4.2 with LeoVegas offers a 26% edge based on model estimates. However, the standout longshot is the under 0.5 goals market at odds of 17.0 with either Betsafe or Nordicbet, where a small stake could yield a windfall given the 32% model edge. While not the likeliest outcome, it illustrates the potential for unexpected outcomes in tightly contested matches.

Bristol Rovers

Form WLLLL

League ranking xG #6xGA #9xT #8xP/match #6Points #12

Key players

Ellis HarrisonFxG 0.30 · xT 0.09
Fabrizio CavegnFxG 0.36 · xT 0.07
Riley HarbottleCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.05

Swindon Town

Form DLLDW

League ranking xG #17xGA #23xT #22xP/match #20Points #13

Key players

Matthew Joseph Virtue-ThickCMxG 0.14 · xT 0.11
Jack ThomsonCAMxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
Daniel ButlerLBxG 0.00 · xT 0.18

Final score

0 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Bristol Rovers 53% · Draw 30% · Swindon Town 17%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Bristol RoversBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 4,67fair 7,22-35 %

Miss

Matchresultat - SwindonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 15,52fair 32,83-53 %

Miss

Match prediction: Bristol Rovers – Swindon Town

Predicted score matrix

Swindon Town →

Bristol Rovers →

0–07.8%

0–15.8%

0–22.5%

0–30.7%

0–4+0.2%

1–012.9%

1–111.2%

1–24.5%

1–31.2%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.7%

2–19.7%

2–24.0%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–06.9%

3–15.7%

3–22.4%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.2%

4+–04.6%

4+–13.8%

4+–21.6%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.2-012%
3.1-111%
4.2-110%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,78–0,82

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@2.23EV+13%

Over 2,548%

@1.67

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bristol Rovers to win53%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bristol Rovers to win53%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Fabrizio Cavegn to score30%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Fabrizio Cavegn to score30%
Mitchell Reece Clark to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw30% probability@4.05BetsafeEV+22%reference odds
X · Draw30% probability@4.05NordicbetEV+22%reference odds
X · Draw30% probability@4.00LeoVegasEV+20%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bristol Rovers	X	2 · Swindon Town
Betsafe	1.60	EV+ 22% 4.05	4.90
LeoVegas	1.61	EV+ 20% 4.00	4.70
Nordicbet	1.60	EV+ 22% 4.05	4.90
Pinnacle	1.71	EV+ 18% 3.93	4.70

Odds updated 24 Oct, 12:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards the draw since 22 October — the odds have shortened from 4.28 to 3.93 (−8%).

1+9 %

60 %55 %

1.57 → 1.71

X-8 %

25 %20 %

4.28 → 3.93

2-5 %

22 %17 %

4.93 → 4.70

Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Bristol Rovers 0Draw 1Swindon Town 1

Goals: 1–4 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.

Key facts

Bristol Rovers have lost 4 in a row.
Bristol Rovers win 55% of their home matches all-time (29 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bristol Rovers

Swindon Town

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bristol Rovers (16–20)

Swindon Town (13–16)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bristol Rovers

Swindon Town

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bristol Rovers

Swindon Town

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bristol Rovers	Swindon Town
Points	15	15
xPoints	18.1	15.4
xG per match	1.6	1.2
xGA per match	1.2	1.9
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.28	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.28

Playing style	Bristol Rovers	Swindon Town
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.32
Field tilt	0.53	0.38
xT per match	0.99	0.65
xTA per match	0.78	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	33	29
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.35
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.35	0.32
Entries into the box per match	16	10
Entries into the box against	11	14
Pass completion %	0.57	0.62
Pass completion % under pressure	0.6	0.61
Passes per match	198	230
Passes against per match	259	332
Switches of play per match	15.3	20.4
Long balls per match	37	33

Set pieces	Bristol Rovers	Swindon Town
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.02
Corners per match	6	3.9
Corners against per match	3.6	8.4
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.28
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.52

Other	Bristol Rovers	Swindon Town
Throw-in control	0.75	0.71

The goalkeepers	Brad Young (Bristol Rovers)	Connor Ripley (Swindon Town)
Saves	21	58
Save %	51%	78%
xG prevented	28%	62%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bristol Rovers

Fixtures, form & tips

Swindon Town

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town according to our model?

The model gives Bristol Rovers a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bristol Rovers 53%, draw 30%, Swindon Town 17%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town?

The model expects 1.78 goals (xG) for Bristol Rovers and 0.82 for Swindon Town, 2.60 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Bristol Rovers or draw (1X) 83%, Swindon Town or draw (X2) 47% and no draw (12) 70%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.