01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Exeter City or draw (1X)67%
- Under 3.5 goals82%
EFL League TwoSt James Park, Exeter12°12,7 mm32 km/h
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Exeter CityPossession control2–1
Fleetwood TownPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Exeter City (37%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.15 (+11 %)
Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town · EFL League Two
1 · Exeter City 37%X 33%30% Fleetwood Town · 2
37%
33%
30%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town (EFL League Two, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Exeter City win 37%, draw 33%, Fleetwood Town win 30%. Expected goals (xG): Exeter City 1.13, Fleetwood Town 1.06. Most likely score: 1-1 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 45%. Double chance: Exeter City or draw 70%, Fleetwood Town or draw 63%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Exeter City – Fleetwood Town
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Exeter City and Fleetwood Town are facing off, and while Exeter has a slight edge in the model probabilities, the recent head-to-head encounters are too few to lean on heavily. This is a fresh matchup for these squads in the current season landscape. Both teams share similar playing styles, aiming to control possession, which could lead to a tactical battle rather than a shootout, especially given the weather's dampening effect on attacking play.
Exeter has shown a stronger defensive setup with an xGA of 1.1 compared to Fleetwood's more porous 1.5. However, Fleetwood edges slightly ahead in expected goals per match with 1.2 against Exeter's 1.1, indicating they possess a bit more attacking firepower. Yet, with Exeter's superior xPoints (17.6 vs. 13.8) and actual points (16 vs. 14), they appear to have the upper hand, even if the margin is narrow. The model's most likely outcomes suggest a tight contest: 1-1 or perhaps a 1-0, with both teams struggling to find the back of the net consistently.
The forecast of 12.7 mm of rain could further stifle goal-scoring opportunities, already predicted to be low. An over 2.5 goals probability sitting at just 37% aligns with a cautious approach to this game, where defenses might hold the upper hand. Both teams to score also remains below the halfway mark at 45%, reinforcing the potential for a low-scoring struggle.
For those eyeing a betting angle, the real value lies in the under markets. Betsafe and Nordicbet both offer under 1.5 goals at odds of 3.2, with a model-rated probability of 35%, providing a substantial 13% edge. For the more daring, Betsafe's under 0.5 goals at 9.7 also carries the same edge. Given the expected tactical battle and wet conditions, these options offer a sharp punt for those willing to bet against a flurry of goals.
Exeter CityForm LWWDW
League ranking xG #22xGA #5xT #19xP/match #8Points #10
Key players
- Jake Billy Doyle-HayesCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.12
- Jack Paul TaylorCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.02
- Edward George Martin JamesCBxG 0.18 · xT 0.04
Fleetwood TownForm LLDWL
League ranking xG #14xGA #18xT #7xP/match #21Points #18
Key players
- Harrison NealCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.08
- Mark HelmCAMxG 0.13 · xT 0.14
- Jake Thomas BattyCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
Final score
2 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Exeter City 37% · Draw 33% · Fleetwood Town 30%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - FleetwoodBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 11,27fair 18,42-39 %
MissMatchresultat - ExeterBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,92fair 16,45-46 %
MissMatch prediction: Exeter City – Fleetwood Town
Predicted score matrix
Fleetwood Town →
Exeter City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–011.6%
0–111.5%
0–26.3%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.7%
1
1–012.2%
1–113.8%
1–27.1%
1–32.5%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–07.1%
2–17.5%
2–24.0%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–02.7%
3–12.8%
3–21.5%
3–30.5%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.0%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-012%
- 4.0-112%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,13–1,06
Both teams to score
45%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,2012%
124%
227%
320%
411%
5+7%
Under 2,563%
@1.72EV+8%
Over 2,537%
@2.14
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Exeter City or draw (1X)67%
- Under 2.5 goals63%
- Joshua Luke Gordon to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score45%
- Over 2.5 goals37%
- Joshua Luke Gordon to score20%
- Harrison Neal to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 1.535% probability@3.15BetsafeEV+11%reference odds
- Under 1.535% probability@3.15NordicbetEV+11%reference odds
- Under 2.563% probability@1.72PinnacleEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Exeter City | X | 2 · Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.32 | EV+ 5% 3.20 | 2.95 |
| LeoVegas | 2.35 | EV+ 3% 3.15 | 3.00 |
| Nordicbet | 2.32 | EV+ 5% 3.20 | 2.95 |
| Pinnacle | 2.40 | EV+ 6% 3.24 | 3.09 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Exeter City win since 22 October — the odds have shortened from 2.58 to 2.40 (−7%).
1-7 %
41 %36 %
2.58 → 2.40
X-1 %
32 %27 %
3.26 → 3.24
2+14 %
35 %30 %
2.70 → 3.09
Over 2,5+6 %
48 %43 %
2.01 → 2.14
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Exeter City
Fleetwood Town
Exeter City (8–6)
Fleetwood Town (14–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Exeter City
Fleetwood Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Exeter City
Fleetwood Town
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Exeter City | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 14 |
| xPoints | 17.6 | 13.8 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.23 | 0.12 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | Exeter City | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 0.67 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.84 | 0.87 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.37 | 0.38 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.4 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 238 | 278 |
| Passes against per match | 293 | 262 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.8 | 17.2 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Exeter City | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 5.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.34 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.63 |
| Other | Exeter City | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Jack Thomas Bycroft (Exeter City) | Jay Lynch (Fleetwood Town) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 33 | 25 |
| Save % | 85% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 62% | 33% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Northampton Town – Colchester United24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Cheltenham Town – Newport County24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Bristol Rovers – Swindon Town24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Crawley Town – Tranmere Rovers24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Rotherham United – Shrewsbury Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Chesterfield – Crewe Alexandra24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Gillingham – Grimsby Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Barnet – Oldham Athletic24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Rochdale – Accrington Stanley24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town according to our model?
The model gives Exeter City a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Exeter City 37%, draw 33%, Fleetwood Town 30%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 37% and under at 63%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Exeter City vs Fleetwood Town?
The model expects 1.13 goals (xG) for Exeter City and 1.06 for Fleetwood Town, 2.19 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Exeter City or draw (1X) 70%, Fleetwood Town or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 67%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.