01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Chesterfield to win55%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
EFL League TwoSMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield9°18,3 mm33 km/h
Läs på svenska
ChesterfieldPossession control5–1
Crewe AlexandraPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Chesterfield (55%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 4.18 (+14 %)
Chesterfield vs Crewe Alexandra · EFL League Two
1 · Chesterfield 55%X 27%18% Crewe Alexandra · 2
55%
27%
18%
Prediction summary
Final score 5–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Chesterfield vs Crewe Alexandra (EFL League Two, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Chesterfield win 55%, draw 27%, Crewe Alexandra win 18%. Expected goals (xG): Chesterfield 1.90, Crewe Alexandra 0.92. Most likely score: 1-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Chesterfield or draw 82%, Crewe Alexandra or draw 45%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Chesterfield – Crewe Alexandra
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Chesterfield holds a statistical edge over Crewe Alexandra, despite being behind in points this season. The hosts are given a 55% chance to win, with the most likely scorelines pointing towards a narrow victory: 1-0 or 2-0 are each pegged at 11%. Their possession-based style aims to suffocate opponents by controlling the match tempo, a plan that often yields an expected goals tally of 1.90, significantly higher than Crewe's 0.92. Yet, the expected weather—cold and wet—could hamper Chesterfield's rhythm, potentially suppressing their scoring output.
Crewe, on the other hand, has been outperforming their expected points tally, having collected 21 points against an xPoints of 17.7. The visitors also favor a possession-oriented approach, but with a lower xG per match of 1.2, they struggle to convert dominance into decisive chances. Their defensive frailties, with an xGA of 1.2, can be a weakness against Chesterfield's focused attack.
The head-to-head record since 2023 is small and slightly favors the hosts, with Chesterfield taking two wins, one draw, and one loss. Chesterfield's superior xG and defensive stats make them the likely winners, but past matches suggest that Crewe is capable of disrupting this narrative. The model leans towards Chesterfield, but the 27% probability for a draw cannot be discounted, especially given the weather's potential impact on the game dynamics.
This sets up an intriguing betting opportunity. The draw has value at odds of 3.85 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, offering a 5% edge against the model's assessment. There's also a marginal value on the under 2.5 goals market at odds of 2.18 with Betsafe, though the model still gives the edge to over 2.5 goals (54%). Although Chesterfield seems poised to win, cautious punters might find more reliable returns backing the draw.
ChesterfieldForm LWDLD
League ranking xG #3xGA #2xT #3xP/match #3Points #9
Key players
- Dilan MarkandayRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.12
- Kyle McfadzeanCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
- Lewis GordonLBxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
Crewe AlexandraForm DWWWL
League ranking xG #12xGA #10xT #13xP/match #7Points #2
Key players
- Luke William OffordCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
- Owen LuntCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.17
- Jordan Lewis GibsonLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.11
Final score
5 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Chesterfield 55% · Draw 27% · Crewe Alexandra 18%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - ChesterfieldBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,87fair 6,06-20 %
HitMatchresultat - CreweBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 14,46fair 25,39-43 %
MissMatch prediction: Chesterfield – Crewe Alexandra
Predicted score matrix
Crewe Alexandra →
Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–15.2%
0–22.5%
0–30.8%
0–4+0.2%
1
1–011.0%
1–110.7%
1–24.8%
1–31.5%
1–4+0.4%
2
2–010.7%
2–19.9%
2–24.6%
2–31.4%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–06.8%
3–16.3%
3–22.9%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–05.0%
4+–14.6%
4+–22.1%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-011%
- 2.2-011%
- 3.1-111%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-07%
Expected goals
1,90–0,92
Both teams to score
52%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@2.26EV+1%
Over 2,554%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Chesterfield to win55%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Ruel Dimitrios Sotiriou to score30%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score52%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Ruel Dimitrios Sotiriou to score30%
- Joshua Stephenson to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw27% probability@4.18PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
- X · Draw27% probability@3.85BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- X · Draw27% probability@3.85NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Chesterfield | X | 2 · Crewe Alexandra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.74 | 2.40 | 2.44 |
| Betsafe | 1.62 | EV+ 5% 3.85 | 4.65 |
| Nordicbet | 1.62 | EV+ 5% 3.85 | 4.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | EV+ 14% 4.18 | 4.78 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 11:36
Odds movement
1+3 %
59 %54 %
1.61 → 1.65
X0 %
26 %21 %
4.18 → 4.18
2+1 %
23 %18 %
4.73 → 4.78
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesChesterfield 2Draw 1Crewe Alexandra 1
Goals: 11–6 (⌀ 4,2)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Chesterfield
Crewe Alexandra
Chesterfield (18–16)
Crewe Alexandra (15–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Chesterfield
Crewe Alexandra
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Chesterfield
Crewe Alexandra
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Chesterfield | Crewe Alexandra |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 21 |
| xPoints | 19.6 | 17.7 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.37 | 0.25 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Chesterfield | Crewe Alexandra |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.69 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 0.87 |
| xTA per match | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 28 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.7 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 408 | 290 |
| Passes against per match | 255 | 316 |
| Switches of play per match | 37.8 | 25.9 |
| Long balls per match | 47 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Chesterfield | Crewe Alexandra |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 6.3 | 4.7 |
| Corners against per match | 2.3 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.6 |
| Other | Chesterfield | Crewe Alexandra |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.8 | 0.66 |
| The goalkeepers | Ryan Thomas William Boot (Chesterfield) | Tom Booth (Crewe Alexandra) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 41 |
| Save % | 62% | 80% |
| xG prevented | 53% | 54% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Northampton Town – Colchester United24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Cheltenham Town – Newport County24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Bristol Rovers – Swindon Town24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Exeter City – Fleetwood Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Crawley Town – Tranmere Rovers24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Rotherham United – Shrewsbury Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Gillingham – Grimsby Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Barnet – Oldham Athletic24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Rochdale – Accrington Stanley24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Chesterfield vs Crewe Alexandra according to our model?
The model gives Chesterfield a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Chesterfield 55%, draw 27%, Crewe Alexandra 18%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Chesterfield vs Crewe Alexandra?
The model expects 1.90 goals (xG) for Chesterfield and 0.92 for Crewe Alexandra, 2.82 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Chesterfield or draw (1X) 82%, Crewe Alexandra or draw (X2) 45% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.