01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Rochdale or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
EFL League TwoSpotland, Rochdale8°26,8 mm35 km/h
Läs på svenska
RochdalePossession control0–5
Accrington StanleyLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Rochdale (42%)
Rochdale vs Accrington Stanley · EFL League Two
1 · Rochdale 42%X 29%29% Accrington Stanley · 2
42%
29%
29%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–5. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Rochdale vs Accrington Stanley (EFL League Two, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Rochdale win 42%, draw 29%, Accrington Stanley win 29%. Expected goals (xG): Rochdale 1.40, Accrington Stanley 1.19. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Rochdale or draw 71%, Accrington Stanley or draw 58%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Rochdale – Accrington Stanley
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
TEXT: Rochdale enters this contest with a model-backed edge, primarily driven by a predicted 42% chance of securing victory against Accrington Stanley. Despite this, Accrington's recent form, highlighted by a six-match unbeaten streak, signals a more formidable challenge than the numbers might first suggest. The hosts' style of possession control contrasts sharply with the visitors' preference for a low-block defense and rapid transitions, potentially creating a tactical standoff.
Statistically, Accrington has been the more efficient side, not only in terms of xPoints but also in expected goals (xG) and goals against (xGA). Their robust xG of 1.4 per match outshines Rochdale's 0.96, underscoring their knack for creating quality chances. And with an xGA of just 1.3, Accrington has a slightly tighter defense than their opponents, who concede on average 1.5 expected goals per match.
It's the tactical execution that could determine the outcome. Accrington's ability to generate 0.43 xG within 8 seconds of winning possession highlights their threat on the counter, a weapon Rochdale must handle with care. Yet, the model's most likely scoreline of 1-1 suggests a tight affair, with both sides having a good chance of finding the net—53% says both teams will score.
Despite Rochdale's less impressive recent performances in terms of expected metrics, there's a calculated value in backing them at home. Betsafe and Nordicbet offer odds of 2.52, and LeoVegas offers 2.5, presenting a value opportunity for those confident in the model's 42% victory estimation for the home side. While the over/under for 2.5 goals sits at a delicate 48%, the tactical patterns suggest leaning slightly towards the under, especially with wet conditions potentially dampening goal-scoring exploits. The true intrigue lies in whether Rochdale can capitalize on this projected edge at home.
RochdaleForm WWDLD
League ranking xG #24xGA #19xT #17xP/match #24Points #11
Key players
- Sam SherringCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
- Charlie TaskerLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.16
- Glenn Bell Dollar MiddletonLWxG 0.07 · xT 0.24
Accrington StanleyForm DWDWD
League ranking xG #8xGA #12xT #10xP/match #4Points #16
Key players
- Donald LoveCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.21
- Josh Stanley Ronald WoodsFxG 0.39 · xT 0.09
- Charlie CatonFxG 0.56 · xT 0.03
Final score
0 – 5
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Rochdale 42% · Draw 29% · Accrington Stanley 29%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - RochdaleBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,92fair 9,89+0 %
MissMatchresultat - AccringtonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,88fair 13,62-42 %
MissMatch prediction: Rochdale – Accrington Stanley
Predicted score matrix
Accrington Stanley →
Rochdale →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.8%
0–18.5%
0–25.3%
0–32.1%
0–4+0.8%
1
1–010.1%
1–112.9%
1–27.4%
1–33.0%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–07.3%
2–18.8%
2–25.2%
2–32.1%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–03.4%
3–14.1%
3–22.4%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,40–1,19
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.89
Over 2,548%
@1.94
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Rochdale or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Dajaune Anthony Brown to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Dajaune Anthony Brown to score32%
- Aidan Gerald Borland to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Rochdale42% probability@2.90BetsafeEV+22%reference odds
- 1 · Rochdale42% probability@2.90NordicbetEV+22%reference odds
- 1 · Rochdale42% probability@2.90PinnacleEV+22%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Rochdale | X | 2 · Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 22% 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.32 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 17% 2.80 | 3.35 | 2.38 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 22% 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.32 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 22% 2.90 | EV+ 1% 3.50 | 2.40 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Accrington Stanley win since 22 October — the odds have shortened from 2.70 to 2.40 (−11%).
1+16 %
41 %31 %
2.51 → 2.90
X+3 %
32 %22 %
3.40 → 3.50
2-11 %
42 %32 %
2.70 → 2.40
Over 2,5-1 %
54 %44 %
1.96 → 1.94
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Accrington Stanley are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Rochdale
Accrington Stanley
Rochdale (15–17)
Accrington Stanley (17–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Rochdale
Accrington Stanley
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Rochdale
Accrington Stanley
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Rochdale | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 15 | 15 |
| xPoints | 12 | 19.3 |
| xG per match | 0.96 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.07 | 0.43 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | Rochdale | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 0.76 | 0.93 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 0.86 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 18 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.38 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.61 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.6 |
| Passes per match | 357 | 226 |
| Passes against per match | 300 | 279 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.6 | 19.7 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 36 |
| Set pieces | Rochdale | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 4.9 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.41 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| Other | Rochdale | Accrington Stanley |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Nils Ramming (Rochdale) | Louie Moulden (Accrington Stanley) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 34 |
| Save % | 70% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 52% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Northampton Town – Colchester United24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Cheltenham Town – Newport County24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Bristol Rovers – Swindon Town24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Exeter City – Fleetwood Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Crawley Town – Tranmere Rovers24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Rotherham United – Shrewsbury Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Chesterfield – Crewe Alexandra24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Gillingham – Grimsby Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Barnet – Oldham Athletic24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Rochdale vs Accrington Stanley according to our model?
The model gives Rochdale a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rochdale 42%, draw 29%, Accrington Stanley 29%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Rochdale vs Accrington Stanley?
The model expects 1.40 goals (xG) for Rochdale and 1.19 for Accrington Stanley, 2.59 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Rochdale or draw (1X) 71%, Accrington Stanley or draw (X2) 58% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.