01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Cheltenham Town or draw (1X)66%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
EFL League TwoWhaddon Road, Cheltenham10°7,7 mm39 km/h
Läs på svenska
Cheltenham TownLow block & direct1–0
Newport CountyLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Cheltenham Town (37%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.46 (+1 %)
Cheltenham Town vs Newport County · EFL League Two
1 · Cheltenham Town 37%X 29%34% Newport County · 2
37%
29%
34%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Cheltenham Town vs Newport County (EFL League Two, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Cheltenham Town win 37%, draw 29%, Newport County win 34%. Expected goals (xG): Cheltenham Town 1.35, Newport County 1.25. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Cheltenham Town or draw 66%, Newport County or draw 63%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Cheltenham Town – Newport County
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Both Cheltenham Town and Newport County share a similar tactical approach with low defensive setups and direct play. This could lead to a tightly contested match with moments of chaos rather than consistent quality. Cheltenham has a slight edge according to the model, with a 37% win probability, but Newport's seven-match unbeaten streak in the league can't be ignored.
Despite Cheltenham's perfect head-to-head record in their last four encounters with Newport, this small sample size gives little weight against current form indicators. The Robins have a narrow lead in points with 18, but Newport's metrics, particularly in expected points (18.8) and defensive measures (xGA of 1.1 per match), suggest they are slightly more efficient and resilient.
Expected goals figures hint at a close encounter, with Cheltenham predicted to notch 1.35 goals and Newport 1.25. The most probable scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 further underline the expectation of a tight and low-scoring match, especially with the wet conditions likely suppressing any potential goal explosion. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 48%, which leans just under, reflecting the balance of defensive vulnerabilities and attacking limitations.
From a betting perspective, the value is in assessing the draw at 29%. With the forecasted rain and Newport’s strong defensive form, a stalemate seems plausible. But for sharper eyes, Cheltenham's win at odds of 2.60 with Bet365, given their head-to-head dominance, could be an intriguing angle for those favoring historical trends over present metrics.
Cheltenham TownForm WLLLW
League ranking xG #21xGA #21xT #24xP/match #13Points #5
Key players
- Charlie Liam McCannCAMxG 0.24 · xT 0.08
- James Steven WilsonCBxG 0.11 · xT 0.05
- Robbie David CundyCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
Newport CountyForm WDWDD
League ranking xG #16xGA #7xT #15xP/match #5Points #15
Key players
- Lee Thomas JenkinsCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.08
- Harrison BigginsCAMxG 0.19 · xT 0.13
- Christian Rhys DoidgeFxG 0.31 · xT 0.07
Final score
1 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Cheltenham Town 37% · Draw 29% · Newport County 34%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - CheltenhamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,58fair 10,64-19 %
MissMatchresultat - Newport CountyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,08fair 12,33-26 %
MissMatch prediction: Cheltenham Town – Newport County
Predicted score matrix
Newport County →
Cheltenham Town →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.8%
0–18.9%
0–25.8%
0–32.4%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–09.7%
1–112.9%
1–27.8%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–06.8%
2–18.4%
2–25.3%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–03.0%
3–13.8%
3–22.4%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.4%
4+–11.7%
4+–21.1%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,35–1,25
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
225%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.90
Over 2,548%
@1.93
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Cheltenham Town or draw (1X)66%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Andreas Weimann to score29%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Andreas Weimann to score29%
- Ben Edward Stevenson to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw29% probability@3.46PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Cheltenham Town | X | 2 · Newport County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.52 | 3.30 | 2.65 |
| LeoVegas | 2.50 | 3.35 | 2.60 |
| Nordicbet | 2.52 | 3.30 | 2.65 |
| Pinnacle | 2.56 | EV+ 1% 3.46 | 2.71 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 12:19
Odds movement
1+1 %
40 %35 %
2.53 → 2.56
X+2 %
30 %25 %
3.39 → 3.46
2+1 %
38 %33 %
2.68 → 2.71
Over 2,5+1 %
52 %47 %
1.91 → 1.93
Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesCheltenham Town 4Draw 0Newport County 0
Goals: 9–2 (⌀ 2,8)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Key facts
- Newport County are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Cheltenham Town
Newport County
Cheltenham Town (21–22)
Newport County (16–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Cheltenham Town
Newport County
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Cheltenham Town
Newport County
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Cheltenham Town | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18 | 15 |
| xPoints | 16 | 18.8 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Cheltenham Town | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| xT per match | 0.51 | 0.78 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.88 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| Entries into the box per match | 7 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.66 | 0.55 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.62 | 0.55 |
| Passes per match | 279 | 169 |
| Passes against per match | 351 | 327 |
| Switches of play per match | 18 | 17.1 |
| Long balls per match | 28 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Cheltenham Town | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.13 |
| Corners per match | 4.3 | 4.2 |
| Corners against per match | 5.9 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.4 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| Other | Cheltenham Town | Newport County |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.65 | 0.75 |
| The goalkeepers | Wylliam Sam Stanway (Cheltenham Town) | Jordan Wright (Newport County) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 32 | 31 |
| Save % | 60% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 31% | 38% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Northampton Town – Colchester United24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Bristol Rovers – Swindon Town24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Exeter City – Fleetwood Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Crawley Town – Tranmere Rovers24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Rotherham United – Shrewsbury Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Chesterfield – Crewe Alexandra24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Gillingham – Grimsby Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Barnet – Oldham Athletic24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Rochdale – Accrington Stanley24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Cheltenham Town vs Newport County according to our model?
The model gives Cheltenham Town a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Cheltenham Town 37%, draw 29%, Newport County 34%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Cheltenham Town vs Newport County?
The model expects 1.35 goals (xG) for Cheltenham Town and 1.25 for Newport County, 2.60 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Cheltenham Town or draw (1X) 66%, Newport County or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 71%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.