01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Colchester United or draw (X2)65%
- Under 3.5 goals78%
EFL League TwoSixfields, Northampton10°16,0 mm35 km/h
Läs på svenska
Northampton TownPossession control2–0
Colchester UnitedPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Colchester United (35%)
Northampton Town vs Colchester United · EFL League Two
1 · Northampton Town 33%X 32%35% Colchester United · 2
33%
32%
35%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Northampton Town vs Colchester United (EFL League Two, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Northampton Town win 33%, draw 32%, Colchester United win 35%. Expected goals (xG): Northampton Town 1.19, Colchester United 1.21. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. Double chance: Northampton Town or draw 65%, Colchester United or draw 67%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Northampton Town – Colchester United
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Colchester United's slight edge over Northampton Town isn't just a hunch; it's grounded in the numbers. Despite the hosts' higher xPoints of 13.0 compared to Colchester's 11.6, the visitors come into this match with a real chance to capitalize on their superior xG of 1.2 per match. Both teams share a similar style, focusing on possession control, which often results in tightly contested games.
The most likely scoreline, a 1-1 draw at 13%, suggests a closely fought match, but the model leans toward a 0-1 away win, reflecting Colchester's slight scoring advantage and Northampton's relatively leaky defense. Expected goals for both sides are almost identical, with Northampton at 1.19 and Colchester edging them out slightly at 1.21. This parity underscores the tight odds, with Colchester having just a narrow 35% win probability against Northampton's 33%.
The weather forecast of 16mm rain could dampen attacking play, yet it's already factored into the models, leaving the over 2.5 goals probability at a mere 43%. This indicates a low-scoring affair, and the 49% chance for both teams to score suggests goals will be scarce. The defensive edge for Northampton, with a lower xGA of 1.2 compared to Colchester's 1.5, might keep them in the mix if they can withstand the visitors' attacking threat.
Bettors looking for value should note the odds on Colchester to win are especially tempting. With Betsafe and Nordicbet offering 3.7 and LeoVegas 3.6, the model sees a 31% and 27% edge, respectively. Given the model's inclination towards an away victory, these odds present a lucrative opportunity for those trusting the data over table positions.
Northampton TownForm LLDWL
League ranking xG #23xGA #8xT #23xP/match #17Points #23
Key players
- Elliott Jordan MooreCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
- Lee EvansCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.12
- Jonathan Neil GuthrieCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.07
Colchester UnitedForm DDLDD
League ranking xG #18xGA #20xT #6xP/match #22Points #19
Key players
- Ellis IandoloLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.21
- Jack PayneCAMxG 0.27 · xT 0.21
- Jack TuckerCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.12
Final score
2 – 0
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Northampton Town 33% · Draw 32% · Colchester United 35%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - ColchesterBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 14,96fair 13,54+11 %
MissMatchresultat - NorthamptonBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,32fair 13,96-40 %
MissMatch prediction: Northampton Town – Colchester United
Predicted score matrix
Colchester United →
Northampton Town →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.4%
0–110.6%
0–26.6%
0–32.7%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–010.4%
1–113.4%
1–27.9%
1–33.2%
1–4+1.3%
2
2–06.4%
2–17.8%
2–24.7%
2–31.9%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–02.6%
3–13.1%
3–21.9%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-111%
- 3.1-010%
- 4.0-09%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,19–1,21
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,409%
121%
227%
321%
413%
5+10%
Under 2,557%
@1.70
Over 2,543%
@2.17
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Colchester United or draw (X2)65%
- Under 2.5 goals57%
- Jonathan Moses Momoh Sesay to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals43%
- Jonathan Moses Momoh Sesay to score26%
- Lee Evans to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Colchester United35% probability@3.83PinnacleEV+35%reference odds
- 2 · Colchester United35% probability@3.70BetsafeEV+31%reference odds
- 2 · Colchester United35% probability@3.70NordicbetEV+31%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Northampton Town | X | 2 · Colchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.02 | EV+ 2% 3.20 | EV+ 31% 3.70 |
| LeoVegas | 2.08 | EV+ 2% 3.20 | EV+ 24% 3.50 |
| Nordicbet | 2.02 | EV+ 2% 3.20 | EV+ 31% 3.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.06 | EV+ 5% 3.30 | EV+ 35% 3.83 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 11:36
Odds movement
1+4 %
50 %45 %
1.98 → 2.06
X+1 %
31 %26 %
3.27 → 3.30
2-1 %
27 %22 %
3.88 → 3.83
Over 2,50 %
47 %42 %
2.18 → 2.17
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Northampton Town
Colchester United
Northampton Town (6–8)
Colchester United (11–14)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Northampton Town
Colchester United
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Northampton Town
Colchester United
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Northampton Town | Colchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 10 | 12 |
| xPoints | 13 | 11.6 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Northampton Town | Colchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.47 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 0.65 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 0.83 | 0.84 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.38 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.35 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 263 | 325 |
| Passes against per match | 315 | 279 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.1 | 23.2 |
| Long balls per match | 24 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Northampton Town | Colchester United |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 5.7 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.27 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| Other | Northampton Town | Colchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.77 |
| The goalkeepers | Zachary Anton John Jeacock (Northampton Town) | Thimothée Jacques Orcel Lo-Tutala (Colchester United) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 21 | 35 |
| Save % | 72% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 43% | 56% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Cheltenham Town – Newport County24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Bristol Rovers – Swindon Town24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Exeter City – Fleetwood Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Crawley Town – Tranmere Rovers24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Rotherham United – Shrewsbury Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Chesterfield – Crewe Alexandra24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Gillingham – Grimsby Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Barnet – Oldham Athletic24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Rochdale – Accrington Stanley24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Northampton Town vs Colchester United according to our model?
The model gives Colchester United a 35% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Northampton Town 33%, draw 32%, Colchester United 35%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 43% and under at 57%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Northampton Town vs Colchester United?
The model expects 1.19 goals (xG) for Northampton Town and 1.21 for Colchester United, 2.40 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Northampton Town or draw (1X) 65%, Colchester United or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 68%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.