01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Crawley Town or draw (1X)68%
- Under 3.5 goals73%
EFL League TwoBroadfield Stadium, Crawley10°18,3 mm37 km/h
Läs på svenska
Crawley TownPossession control1–1
Tranmere RoversCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Crawley Town (40%)
Crawley Town vs Tranmere Rovers · EFL League Two
1 · Crawley Town 40%X 27%33% Tranmere Rovers · 2
40%
27%
33%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Crawley Town vs Tranmere Rovers (EFL League Two, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Crawley Town win 40%, draw 27%, Tranmere Rovers win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Crawley Town 1.41, Tranmere Rovers 1.22. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Crawley Town or draw 67%, Tranmere Rovers or draw 60%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Crawley Town – Tranmere Rovers
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
A crucial figure jumps out ahead of the clash between Crawley Town and Tranmere Rovers: a 51% model rating for under 2.5 goals, with attractive odds of 2.02 across several bookmakers, including Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet. Despite Crawley's possession-oriented approach, their expected goals against per match sits at a troubling 2.0, suggesting vulnerabilities that Tranmere's counter-attacking style could exploit. Yet, the model's under 2.5 lean reflects the expected suppression of goals, likely influenced by rainfall expected to reach 18.3 mm.
The hosts have struggled in head-to-head encounters since 2023, losing both matches to Tranmere. However, this is a small sample size and pales against broader indicators. Crawley's xG edge of 1.3 per match slightly surpasses Tranmere’s 1.2, hinting at their potential to break through. Despite Tranmere's superior points tally (15 compared to Crawley's 5), the match leans toward a tight affair, with a 40% win probability for Crawley, 33% for Tranmere, and a 27% chance of a draw.
While the numbers suggest a cautious battle, the under 2.5 goals bet stands out, offering a 3% edge at 2.02 odds. With both teams likely to focus on structure over risk, expect a narrow scoreline, perhaps 1-0 to Crawley, with fewer goals than usual.
Crawley TownForm LLDLL
League ranking xG #11xGA #24xT #11xP/match #23Points #24
Key players
- Kai JenningsCMxG 0.07 · xT 0.12
- Adetokunbo Bamidele AdeyemoRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.16
- Jude ArthursCMxG 0.13 · xT 0.06
Tranmere RoversForm DLDLW
League ranking xG #13xGA #22xT #18xP/match #18Points #14
Key players
- William Robert VaulksCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
- Thomas Christopher InceRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.11
- Zane OkoroRWxG 0.23 · xT -0.03
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Crawley Town 40% · Draw 27% · Tranmere Rovers 33%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Crawley TownBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,30fair 9,76-15 %
MissMatchresultat - TranmereBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,95fair 12,85-38 %
MissMatch prediction: Crawley Town – Tranmere Rovers
Predicted score matrix
Tranmere Rovers →
Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.6%
0–18.5%
0–25.4%
0–32.2%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–09.8%
1–112.8%
1–27.6%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–07.1%
2–18.7%
2–25.3%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.9%
3
3–03.3%
3–14.1%
3–22.5%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–12.0%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,41–1,22
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
118%
225%
322%
414%
5+13%
Under 2,551%
@2.01EV+1%
Over 2,549%
@1.83
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Crawley Town or draw (1X)68%
- Under 2.5 goals51%
- Dylan Morgan to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals49%
- Joe Samuel Ironside to score21%
- William Robert Vaulks to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Crawley Town40% probability@2.66PinnacleEV+6%reference odds
- 1 · Crawley Town40% probability@2.62BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Crawley Town40% probability@2.62NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Crawley Town | X | 2 · Tranmere Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 5% 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 2% 2.55 | 3.45 | 2.50 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 5% 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.45 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 6% 2.66 | 3.57 | 2.55 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+2 %
38 %33 %
2.61 → 2.66
X0 %
29 %24 %
3.57 → 3.57
2+2 %
40 %35 %
2.49 → 2.55
Over 2,5+4 %
56 %51 %
1.75 → 1.83
Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesCrawley Town 0Draw 0Tranmere Rovers 2
Goals: 0–4 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Crawley Town
Tranmere Rovers
Crawley Town (11–20)
Tranmere Rovers (15–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Crawley Town
Tranmere Rovers
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Crawley Town
Tranmere Rovers
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Crawley Town | Tranmere Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 5 | 15 |
| xPoints | 10.1 | 15.5 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 2 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.47 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Crawley Town | Tranmere Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.31 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.39 |
| xT per match | 0.92 | 0.75 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.66 | 0.61 |
| Passes per match | 316 | 243 |
| Passes against per match | 253 | 304 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.7 | 15.8 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Crawley Town | Tranmere Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 3.9 | 3.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.49 | 0.56 |
| Other | Crawley Town | Tranmere Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.79 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Nicholas Jake Michalski (Crawley Town) | Luke Paul McGee (Tranmere Rovers) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 15 |
| Save % | 64% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 52% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Northampton Town – Colchester United24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Cheltenham Town – Newport County24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Bristol Rovers – Swindon Town24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Exeter City – Fleetwood Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Rotherham United – Shrewsbury Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Chesterfield – Crewe Alexandra24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Gillingham – Grimsby Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Barnet – Oldham Athletic24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Rochdale – Accrington Stanley24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Crawley Town vs Tranmere Rovers according to our model?
The model gives Crawley Town a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Crawley Town 40%, draw 27%, Tranmere Rovers 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Crawley Town vs Tranmere Rovers?
The model expects 1.41 goals (xG) for Crawley Town and 1.22 for Tranmere Rovers, 2.63 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Crawley Town or draw (1X) 67%, Tranmere Rovers or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.