01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Grimsby Town or draw (X2)68%
- Under 3.5 goals81%
EFL League TwoPriestfield Stadium, Gillingham11°15,8 mm38 km/h
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GillinghamLow block & direct1–4
Grimsby TownPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Grimsby Town (41%)Best value by the model: Under 0,5 @ 12.00 (+30 %)
Gillingham vs Grimsby Town · EFL League Two
1 · Gillingham 29%X 31%41% Grimsby Town · 2
29%
31%
41%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–4. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Gillingham vs Grimsby Town (EFL League Two, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Gillingham win 29%, draw 31%, Grimsby Town win 41%. Expected goals (xG): Gillingham 1.07, Grimsby Town 1.19. Most likely score: 1-1 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%. Double chance: Gillingham or draw 59%, Grimsby Town or draw 71%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
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Analysis: Gillingham – Grimsby Town
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Grimsby Town's possession-based approach has so far proven effective against Gillingham, having won three of their past four encounters since 2023. Though the sample size is limited, this pattern hints at an edge for the visitors. The model leans towards Grimsby Town, giving them a 41% chance of victory, suggesting their style might once again trouble the hosts who favour a more direct approach.
Gillingham holds a slight edge in both traditional and expected points over Grimsby Town—17 to 14 and 17.1 to 15.5 respectively. However, the expected goals per match tell a different story, with Grimsby Town leading 1.7 to 1.1. This indicates that while Gillingham may appear efficient in terms of points, Grimsby is generating higher quality opportunities in attack. Defensively, both teams are closely matched, with Gillingham marginally ahead on xGA at 1.3 compared to Grimsby’s 1.4.
Weather conditions forecasted to include significant rainfall could lead to a tighter affair, suppressing goal-scoring chances. This aligns with the expected goals data, which also suggests a low-scoring game: Gillingham 1.07, Grimsby Town 1.19. The probability for over 2.5 goals sits at just 39%. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 0-0, further support a cautious outlook.
Given the model's probabilities and the style of play, a 1-1 draw seems the most plausible result, with a slight lean towards Grimsby Town edging it 0-1. But for those who prefer a calculated risk, there's value in the under 0.5 market, with Betsafe and Nordicbet offering odds of 13.0, representing a 40% edge according to the model. Furthermore, the under 1.5 goals option at odds of 3.7 with Betsafe provides a 24% edge, appealing to bettors who lean towards a conservative, defensively oriented outcome.
GillinghamForm LDWLD
League ranking xG #19xGA #15xT #20xP/match #10Points #7
Key players
- Omar Jerome BecklesCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.03
- James Robert BrophyLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.08
- Ronan Aiden Connolly Shea Chapman HaleLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.00
Grimsby TownForm LLLLD
League ranking xG #4xGA #16xT #1xP/match #19Points #17
Key players
- Jamie WalkerCDMxG 0.11 · xT 0.17
- Cameron McjannettCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
- Charles VernamLWxG 0.27 · xT 0.22
Final score
1 – 4
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Gillingham 29% · Draw 31% · Grimsby Town 41%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - GillinghamBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,95fair 17,73-44 %
MissMatchresultat - GrimsbyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,94fair 14,51-52 %
HitMatch prediction: Gillingham – Grimsby Town
Predicted score matrix
Grimsby Town →
Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.8%
0–112.0%
0–27.4%
0–32.9%
0–4+1.1%
1
1–010.8%
1–113.7%
1–27.9%
1–33.1%
1–4+1.2%
2
2–06.0%
2–17.1%
2–24.2%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–02.1%
3–12.5%
3–21.5%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–00.7%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.5%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.0-112%
- 3.0-011%
- 4.1-011%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,07–1,19
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3011%
123%
227%
320%
411%
5+8%
Under 2,561%
@2.04EV+20%
Over 2,539%
@1.80
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Grimsby Town or draw (X2)68%
- Under 2.5 goals61%
- Andrew Ellis Cook to score20%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals39%
- Andrew Ellis Cook to score20%
- Jamie Allan Walker to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 0.511% probability@12.00BetsafeEV+30%reference odds
- Under 0.511% probability@12.00NordicbetEV+30%reference odds
- Under 1.534% probability@3.75LeoVegasEV+26%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Gillingham | X | 2 · Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.05 | EV+ 5% 3.40 | 2.15 |
| LeoVegas | 3.20 | EV+ 3% 3.35 | 2.12 |
| Nordicbet | 3.05 | EV+ 5% 3.40 | 2.15 |
| Pinnacle | 3.43 | EV+ 7% 3.46 | 2.14 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+6 %
31 %26 %
3.24 → 3.43
X+1 %
30 %25 %
3.41 → 3.46
2-1 %
47 %42 %
2.16 → 2.14
Over 2,5+1 %
56 %51 %
1.77 → 1.80
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesGillingham 0Draw 1Grimsby Town 3
Goals: 2–7 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on League Two data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Gillingham
Grimsby Town
Gillingham (17–14)
Grimsby Town (15–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Gillingham
Grimsby Town
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Gillingham
Grimsby Town
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Gillingham | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 14 |
| xPoints | 17.1 | 15.5 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.27 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Gillingham | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.39 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 0.67 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 0.96 | 0.78 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 33 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.43 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.63 | 0.67 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 243 | 282 |
| Passes against per match | 317 | 216 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.4 | 24.2 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Gillingham | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 3.7 | 6.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.39 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.59 |
| Other | Gillingham | Grimsby Town |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.75 | 0.7 |
| The goalkeepers | Oliver Lennon George Wright (Gillingham) | Christy James Pym (Grimsby Town) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 33 | 27 |
| Save % | 81% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 66% | 54% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Northampton Town – Colchester United24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Cheltenham Town – Newport County24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Bristol Rovers – Swindon Town24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Exeter City – Fleetwood Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Crawley Town – Tranmere Rovers24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Rotherham United – Shrewsbury Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Chesterfield – Crewe Alexandra24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Barnet – Oldham Athletic24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Rochdale – Accrington Stanley24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Gillingham vs Grimsby Town according to our model?
The model gives Grimsby Town a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gillingham 29%, draw 31%, Grimsby Town 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 39% and under at 61%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Gillingham vs Grimsby Town?
The model expects 1.07 goals (xG) for Gillingham and 1.19 for Grimsby Town, 2.26 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Gillingham or draw (1X) 59%, Grimsby Town or draw (X2) 71% and no draw (12) 69%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.