01 · 2 legs
Safe
- York City to win48%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
EFL League TwoLNER Community Stadium, York9°8,1 mm34 km/h
Läs på svenska
York CityPossession control2–0
Port ValePossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · York City (48%)
York City vs Port Vale · EFL League Two
1 · York City 48%X 27%24% Port Vale · 2
48%
27%
24%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for York City vs Port Vale (EFL League Two, Saturday, 24 October 2026): York City win 48%, draw 27%, Port Vale win 24%. Expected goals (xG): York City 1.65, Port Vale 1.04. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: York City or draw 76%, Port Vale or draw 52%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: York City – Port Vale
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
TEXT: York City's possession-based approach has been instrumental in establishing their slight edge over Port Vale this season. Their ability to control matches is reflected not just in their point tally of 17, but also in their expected goals (xG) of 1.7 per match, a significant advantage over Port Vale’s 1.1. The model suggests a robust 48% probability for a home victory, with the most likely outcomes being either a 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-0 win for York.
Port Vale shares a similar style, also focusing on possession control, but they've struggled to convert this into tangible results, evident in their lower points total of 12 and an xPoints tally that trails York's by over two points. Despite a comparable defensive record with an xGA of 1.1 per match, the visitors’ offensive shortcomings could tilt the balance in York's favor, especially when playing away from home.
With a 50% chance of the match producing over 2.5 goals and both teams likely to score at 53%, the numbers suggest a tight affair where keeping things steady at the back might be more critical than chasing goals. Rain is expected, which often dampens attacking play, likely reinforcing York's defensive discipline—a factor already included in the model’s probabilities.
In essence, this matchup reflects York's slight superiority across various metrics. While a 1-1 draw remains the most statistically likely scoreline, York's 1-0 win probability follows closely, highlighting their potential to edge out Port Vale. Ultimately, the hosts' controlled approach could see them through in a match predicted to be more about grit than glamour.
York CityForm LWDDD
League ranking xG #5xGA #6xT #2xP/match #11Points #6
Key players
- Alexander John HuntCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.10
- Alexander Lewis NewbyFxG 0.43 · xT 0.10
- Mark Stephen KitchingCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.15
Port ValeForm WLWWD
League ranking xG #20xGA #4xT #9xP/match #16Points #20
Key players
- Kyle Michael DempseyFxG 0.07 · xT 0.07
- Jasper MoonCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.13
- Cameron HumphreysCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
Final score
2 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: York City 48% · Draw 27% · Port Vale 24%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - YorkBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,68fair 7,44-10 %
MissMatchresultat - Port ValeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 11,75fair 18,50-37 %
MissMatch prediction: York City – Port Vale
Predicted score matrix
Port Vale →
York City →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.1%
0–16.7%
0–23.7%
0–31.3%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–010.8%
1–112.0%
1–26.1%
1–32.1%
1–4+0.7%
2
2–09.2%
2–19.6%
2–25.0%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.6%
3
3–05.1%
3–15.3%
3–22.8%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–03.0%
4+–13.2%
4+–21.7%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,65–1,04
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,550%
@1.94
Over 2,550%
@1.89
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- York City to win48%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Olliver Robert Pearce to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Olliver Robert Pearce to score25%
- Cameron Lisceous Humphreys-Grant to be booked21%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · York City | X | 2 · Port Vale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.98 | 3.40 | 3.55 |
| LeoVegas | 2.02 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Nordicbet | 1.98 | 3.40 | 3.55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.00 | 3.59 | 3.67 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 11:36
Odds movement
1+2 %
50 %45 %
1.97 → 2.00
X+2 %
29 %24 %
3.53 → 3.59
2+1 %
28 %23 %
3.62 → 3.67
Over 2,5+1 %
53 %48 %
1.87 → 1.89
Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
York City
Port Vale
York City (19–13)
Port Vale (6–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
York City
Port Vale
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
York City
Port Vale
The teams in numbers
| Performance | York City | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 12 |
| xPoints | 15.1 | 13 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.42 |
| Playing style | York City | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.6 | 0.49 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 0.93 |
| xTA per match | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.64 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| Passes per match | 463 | 255 |
| Passes against per match | 243 | 268 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.2 | 20.8 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 30 |
| Set pieces | York City | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 6 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 4.7 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.53 | 0.69 |
| Other | York City | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.81 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Alfie Shane McNally (York City) | Marko Maroši (Port Vale) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 11 |
| Save % | 67% | 79% |
| xG prevented | 54% | 64% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Northampton Town – Colchester United24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Cheltenham Town – Newport County24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Bristol Rovers – Swindon Town24 October 2026 13:30 CEST
- Exeter City – Fleetwood Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Crawley Town – Tranmere Rovers24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Rotherham United – Shrewsbury Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Chesterfield – Crewe Alexandra24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Gillingham – Grimsby Town24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Barnet – Oldham Athletic24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins York City vs Port Vale according to our model?
The model gives York City a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: York City 48%, draw 27%, Port Vale 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in York City vs Port Vale?
The model expects 1.65 goals (xG) for York City and 1.04 for Port Vale, 2.69 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
York City or draw (1X) 76%, Port Vale or draw (X2) 52% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.