Bournemouth vs Sunderland Prediction: Home win 56% (18 Oct 2026)

Premier League18 October 2026Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth10°0,6 mm23 km/h

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BournemouthPossession control

SunderlandPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Bournemouth (56%)

1 · Bournemouth 56%X 26%18% Sunderland · 2

56%

26%

18%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Bournemouth vs Sunderland (Premier League, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Bournemouth win 56%, draw 26%, Sunderland win 18%. Expected goals (xG): Bournemouth 1.76, Sunderland 1.07. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Bournemouth or draw 82%, Sunderland or draw 44%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Bournemouth – Sunderland

Marcus Johansson · 16 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT: Sunderland's current three-game losing streak casts a shadow over their visit to Bournemouth, despite the marginal historical edge they've held in their recent head-to-head encounters. With just two matches since 2022 between these sides, and a small sample size that saw Bournemouth yet to win, more weight falls on current form and expected goals, where the home side holds the advantage.

Bournemouth's dominance in expected metrics is clear. They lead in expected goals (1.6 to Sunderland's 1.4) and boast a stronger defensive setup with an xGA of 1.2 compared to the visitors' 1.4. Both teams favor possession control, which could lead to a chess match in midfield. However, Sunderland's patchy form and Bournemouth's superior xPoints and home advantage tip the scales toward the hosts. The model leans heavily in Bournemouth's favor, assigning them a 56% win probability.

The numbers suggest a keen tactical battle, yet Bournemouth's recent xPoints superiority (9.4 compared to Sunderland's 7.1) hints at their ability to convert dominant play into tangible outcomes more effectively. The prediction leans toward a 1-0 or 2-1 scoreline, both tied at a 10% likelihood. While the over 2.5 goals probability sits at 54%, suggesting a game that could open up, the resilient defensive numbers for Bournemouth might keep the scoreline tighter.

For bettors, the standout opportunity lies with Bournemouth as a value proposition. With odds of 2.12 at LeoVegas, 2.1 at Nordicbet, and 2.08 at Betsafe, significant value emerges against the model's 56% win rate for the hosts—presenting a 17-19% edge depending on the bookmaker. Ultimately, Bournemouth's superior form and Sunderland's struggles make the home win not just probable, but strategically valuable at these odds.

Bournemouth

Form DDDLL

League ranking xG #7xGA #4xT #9xP/match #6Points #18

Key players

Ryan ChristieCMxG 0.37 · xT 0.36
Alex ScottCMxG 0.12 · xT 0.07
Marcus TavernierLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.07

Sunderland

Form WDLLL

League ranking xG #12xGA #10xT #8xP/match #17Points #17

Key players

Enzo Le FéeCAMxG 0.33 · xT 0.17
Granit XhakaCDMxG 0.02 · xT 0.28
Trai HumeFxG 0.05 · xT 0.11

Match prediction: Bournemouth – Sunderland

Predicted score matrix

Sunderland →

Bournemouth →

0–06.2%

0–16.0%

0–23.4%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.4%

1–010.1%

1–111.4%

1–25.9%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.2%

2–19.8%

2–25.2%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.6%

3–05.4%

3–15.7%

3–23.1%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.5%

4+–13.8%

4+–22.0%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-06%

Expected goals

1,76–1,07

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+16%

Under 2,546%

@1.99

Over 2,554%

@1.84

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Bournemouth to win56%
Over 1.5 goals78%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Bournemouth to win56%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Ryan Christie to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals54%
Ryan Christie to score33%
Granit Xhaka to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Bournemouth56% probability@2.15LeoVegasEV+21%reference odds
1 · Bournemouth56% probability@2.14PinnacleEV+20%reference odds
1 · Bournemouth56% probability@2.12BetsafeEV+19%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Bournemouth	X	2 · Sunderland
Betsafe	EV+ 19% 2.12	3.40	3.40
LeoVegas	EV+ 21% 2.15	3.50	3.35
Nordicbet	EV+ 19% 2.12	3.45	3.45
Pinnacle	EV+ 20% 2.14	3.49	3.52

Odds updated 16 Oct, 19:37

Odds movement

1+7 %

49 %44 %

2.00 → 2.14

X-2 %

30 %25 %

3.57 → 3.49

2-3 %

29 %24 %

3.64 → 3.52

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Bournemouth 0Draw 1Sunderland 1

Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

Key facts

Sunderland AFC have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Bournemouth

Sunderland

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Bournemouth (7–13)

Sunderland (6–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Bournemouth

Sunderland

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Bournemouth

Sunderland

The teams in numbers

Performance	Bournemouth	Sunderland
Points	3	4
xPoints	9.4	7.1
xG per match	1.6	1.4
xGA per match	1.2	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.15	0.1
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.19	0.23

Playing style	Bournemouth	Sunderland
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.3
Field tilt	0.48	0.51
xT per match	1	1
xTA per match	0.84	0.86
Won balls, offensive half	29	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.27
Entries into the box per match	13	13
Entries into the box against	12	11
Pass completion %	0.75	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.7
Passes per match	335	342
Passes against per match	373	326
Switches of play per match	23.4	27.2
Long balls per match	31	36

Set pieces	Bournemouth	Sunderland
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.04
Corners per match	4.7	4.5
Corners against per match	4	4
xG per corner	0.13	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.43	0.44
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.67

Other	Bournemouth	Sunderland
Throw-in control	0.65	0.68

The goalkeepers	Đorđe Petrović (Bournemouth)	Robin Roefs (Sunderland)
Saves	12	8
Save %	48%	40%
xG prevented	49%	33%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Bournemouth

Fixtures, form & tips

Sunderland

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Bournemouth vs Sunderland according to our model?

The model gives Bournemouth a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Bournemouth 56%, draw 26%, Sunderland 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?

The model expects 1.76 goals (xG) for Bournemouth and 1.07 for Sunderland, 2.83 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Bournemouth or draw (1X) 82%, Sunderland or draw (X2) 44% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.