Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Prediction: Away win 52% (18 Oct 2026)

Premier League18 October 2026The City Ground, Nottingham9°20 km/h

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Nottingham ForestLow block & direct

ArsenalPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Arsenal (52%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 3.60 (+20 %)

1 · Nottingham Forest 20%X 28%52% Arsenal · 2

20%

28%

52%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal (Premier League, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Nottingham Forest win 20%, draw 28%, Arsenal win 52%. Expected goals (xG): Nottingham Forest 0.86, Arsenal 1.42. Most likely score: 0-1 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 44%. Double chance: Nottingham Forest or draw 48%, Arsenal or draw 80%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Nottingham Forest – Arsenal

Erik Lindberg · 16 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

A tight contest is expected at Nottingham's ground with Arsenal holding a 52% chance of victory. The visitors' stronger points tally of 15 compared to the hosts' 5 underscores this. Yet, Forest's xPoints (9.6) suggest they're a touch unlucky, with their xG of 1.9 per match surprisingly edging Arsenal's 1.8. Still, Forest's direct style clashes with Arsenal's high press, likely leading to a game dominated by the visitors' possession.

The small sample of four head-to-head matchups since 2022 reveals no Forest wins, but it's season form and expected goals that paint a more relevant picture. Arsenal's defense, allowing just 0.83 xGA per match, could frustrate Forest, who rely on breaking through quickly. The model's most probable scorelines favor low totals: 0-1 or a 1-1 stalemate.

For those willing to see past the mundane for value, three bookmakers offer intriguing odds for under 1.5 goals. Betsafe and Nordicbet's odds of 3.57, and LeoVegas's 3.5, all present a significant 19% and 17% edge, respectively. With only a 40% chance of more than two goals, the real value lies in anticipating a dry spell on the goal front.

Nottingham Forest

Form DDWLL

League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #3xP/match #2Points #15

Key players

Ousmane DiomandeCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.02
Morgan Gibbs WhiteRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.31
MurilloCBxG 0.16 · xT 0.11

Arsenal

Form WWWLW

League ranking xG #5xGA #1xT #5xP/match #1Points #2

Key players

Bukayo SakaRWxG 0.58 · xT 0.05
Declan RiceCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.15
Martin ØdegaardCMxG 0.33 · xT 0.29

Match prediction: Nottingham Forest – Arsenal

Predicted score matrix

Arsenal →

Nottingham Forest →

0–010.7%

0–114.2%

0–210.4%

0–34.9%

0–4+2.4%

1–08.4%

1–112.9%

1–28.9%

1–34.2%

1–4+2.0%

2–03.8%

2–15.3%

2–23.8%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.9%

3–01.1%

3–11.5%

3–21.1%

3–30.5%

3–4+0.2%

4+–00.3%

4+–10.4%

4+–20.3%

4+–30.1%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.0-114%
2.1-113%
3.0-011%
4.0-210%
5.1-29%

Expected goals

0,86–1,42

Both teams to score

44%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

011%

123%

227%

320%

411%

5+8%

Under 2,560%

@1.89EV+14%

Over 2,540%

@1.94

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Arsenal to win52%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Arsenal to win52%
Under 2.5 goals60%
Kai Lukas Havertz to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score44%
Over 2.5 goals40%
Kai Lukas Havertz to score25%
Xaver Schlager to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.533% probability@3.60LeoVegasEV+20%reference odds
Under 1.533% probability@3.57BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
Under 1.533% probability@3.57NordicbetEV+19%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Nottingham Forest	X	2 · Arsenal
Betsafe	EV+ 15% 5.75	EV+ 9% 3.90	1.58
LeoVegas	EV+ 10% 5.50	EV+ 10% 3.95	1.64
Nordicbet	EV+ 16% 5.80	EV+ 10% 3.95	1.60
Pinnacle	EV+ 19% 5.94	EV+ 4% 3.74	1.65

Odds updated 16 Oct, 19:37

Odds movement

1-1 %

18 %13 %

5.98 → 5.94

X0 %

28 %23 %

3.73 → 3.74

2+3 %

61 %56 %

1.60 → 1.65

Pinnacle · 3 recorded price levels · 09/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Nottingham Forest 0Draw 2Arsenal 2

Goals: 0–6 (⌀ 1,5)

Head-to-head based on Premier League data since 2022.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nottingham Forest

Arsenal

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Nottingham Forest (5–8)

Arsenal (10–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nottingham Forest

Arsenal

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nottingham Forest

Arsenal

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nottingham Forest	Arsenal
Points	5	15
xPoints	9.6	10.6
xG per match	1.9	1.8
xGA per match	1.3	0.83
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.39	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.12

Playing style	Nottingham Forest	Arsenal
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.34
Field tilt	0.56	0.69
xT per match	1.3	1.1
xTA per match	0.74	0.56
Won balls, offensive half	25	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.31
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.27
Entries into the box per match	16	18
Entries into the box against	12	10
Pass completion %	0.74	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.77
Passes per match	325	435
Passes against per match	341	269
Switches of play per match	28.9	23.1
Long balls per match	34	25

Set pieces	Nottingham Forest	Arsenal
xG from free kicks	0.05	0.02
Corners per match	4.2	4.5
Corners against per match	4.6	3.3
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.43	0.8

Other	Nottingham Forest	Arsenal
Throw-in control	0.78	0.75

The goalkeepers	Matz Sels (Nottingham Forest)	David Raya (Arsenal)
Saves	15	13
Save %	65%	72%
xG prevented	58%	79%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Nottingham Forest

Fixtures, form & tips

Arsenal

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal according to our model?

The model gives Arsenal a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nottingham Forest 20%, draw 28%, Arsenal 52%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 0-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 40% and under at 60%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 44% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?

The model expects 0.86 goals (xG) for Nottingham Forest and 1.42 for Arsenal, 2.27 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Nottingham Forest or draw (1X) 48%, Arsenal or draw (X2) 80% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.