Clermont vs Guingamp: Prediction & Odds (23 Oct 2026)

Ligue 223 October 2026Stade Gabriel Montpied, Clermont-Ferrand12°5,8 mm30 km/h

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ClermontPossession control

0–2

GuingampBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Clermont (38%)

1 · Clermont 38%X 30%32% Guingamp · 2

38%

30%

32%

Prediction summary

Final score 0–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Clermont vs Guingamp (Ligue 2, Friday, 23 October 2026): Clermont win 38%, draw 30%, Guingamp win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Clermont 1.35, Guingamp 1.15. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Clermont or draw 68%, Guingamp or draw 62%. Prediction updated Thursday, 15 October 2026.

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Analysis: Clermont – Guingamp

Marcus Johansson · 22 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

Clermont's possession-based approach is set to clash with Guingamp's balanced, physical game in this intriguing Ligue 2 encounter. While the home side tends to dominate the ball, their xG per match of 0.83 suggests they struggle to convert possession into clear-cut chances. In contrast, Guingamp, despite their current poor form with three consecutive losses, boast a healthier xG of 1.6 per match. This indicates they could threaten more consistently, particularly with their physicality.

The head-to-head record, albeit small with just four matches, leans toward Clermont, having won three and lost just one. Yet, this historical advantage might be less significant given Guingamp's overall stronger season metrics. Currently, Guingamp edges Clermont in points (8 vs 7) and expected points (12.7 vs 9.4), which reinforces their slight ascendancy despite the recent slump.

The model favors Clermont with a 38% win probability, subtly tipping the scales towards the hosts. The most likely outcomes are a tight 1-1 draw or a narrow 1-0 victory for Clermont. Expected goals further underline a low-scoring affair, with Clermont projected at 1.35 and Guingamp at 1.15. The forecasted rain could also dampen the goal tally, with over 2.5 goals sitting at just 45%.

In betting terms, value emerges for Clermont to win at odds of 2.95 via Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet. Each offers a 13% edge according to the model. This represents the sharpest angle, especially if Guingamp's losing streak continues. While a draw is plausible, the value bet here is on the hosts sneaking a victory.

Clermont

Form DDDLD

League ranking xG #17xGA #17xT #14xP/match #18Points #16

Key players

Enzo CanteroRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.38
Ethan Kena KabeyaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
Ivan MbahiaRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09

Guingamp

Form DWLLL

League ranking xG #3xGA #10xT #10xP/match #7Points #13

Key players

Donatien GomisCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.08
Dylan LouiserreCDMxG 0.17 · xT 0.04
Albin DemouchyCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.09

Final score

0 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Clermont 38% · Draw 30% · Guingamp 32%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Clermont Foot 63Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,78fair 10,85-10 %

Miss

Matchresultat - GuingampBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,59fair 14,90-49 %

Miss

Match prediction: Clermont – Guingamp

Predicted score matrix

Guingamp →

Clermont →

0–08.6%

0–19.1%

0–25.4%

0–32.1%

0–4+0.8%

1–010.7%

1–113.1%

1–27.3%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.5%

2–18.6%

2–24.9%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–03.4%

3–13.9%

3–22.2%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.5%

4+–11.8%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-011%
3.0-19%
4.0-09%
5.2-19%

Expected goals

1,35–1,15

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.88EV+2%

Over 2,545%

@1.98

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Clermont or draw (1X)69%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Clermont or draw (1X)69%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Allan Ackra to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Allan Ackra to score24%
Dylan Louiserre to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Clermont38% probability@3.17PinnacleEV+22%reference odds
1 · Clermont38% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
1 · Clermont38% probability@2.95LeoVegasEV+13%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Clermont	X	2 · Guingamp
Betsafe	EV+ 13% 2.95	3.20	2.28
LeoVegas	EV+ 13% 2.95	3.25	2.30
Nordicbet	EV+ 13% 2.95	3.20	2.28
Pinnacle	EV+ 22% 3.17	3.27	2.37

Odds updated 23 Oct, 12:36

Odds movement

1+5 %

33 %28 %

3.01 → 3.17

X+2 %

32 %27 %

3.21 → 3.27

2-2 %

42 %37 %

2.41 → 2.37

Over 2,5+1 %

51 %46 %

1.95 → 1.98

Pinnacle · 6 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Clermont 3Draw 0Guingamp 1

Goals: 7–4 (⌀ 2,8)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

Key facts

Guingamp have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Clermont

Guingamp

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Clermont (9–12)

Guingamp (11–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Clermont

Guingamp

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Clermont

Guingamp

The teams in numbers

Performance	Clermont	Guingamp
Points	7	8
xPoints	9.4	12.7
xG per match	0.83	1.6
xGA per match	1.7	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.38	0.27

Playing style	Clermont	Guingamp
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.36	0.48
xT per match	0.88	1
xTA per match	1.3	0.97
Won balls, offensive half	19	24
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.19	0.23
Entries into the box per match	9	9
Entries into the box against	13	12
Pass completion %	0.79	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.75
Passes per match	401	418
Passes against per match	414	358
Switches of play per match	28.1	38.8
Long balls per match	33	36

Set pieces	Clermont	Guingamp
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.1
Corners per match	4.7	4.1
Corners against per match	4.6	3.3
xG per corner	0.01	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.54	0.53

Other	Clermont	Guingamp
Throw-in control	0.72	0.75

The goalkeepers	Theo Guivarch (Clermont)	Adrian Ortola (Guingamp)
Saves	23	27
Save %	68%	64%
xG prevented	38%	53%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Clermont

Fixtures, form & tips

Guingamp

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Clermont vs Guingamp according to our model?

The model gives Clermont a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Clermont 38%, draw 30%, Guingamp 32%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Clermont vs Guingamp?

The model expects 1.35 goals (xG) for Clermont and 1.15 for Guingamp, 2.49 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Clermont or draw (1X) 68%, Guingamp or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 70%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.