01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Saint-Étienne to win60%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Ligue 2Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint-Étienne9°4,8 mm11 km/h
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Saint-ÉtiennePossession control1–0
NantesPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Saint-Étienne (60%)
Saint-Étienne vs Nantes · Ligue 2
1 · Saint-Étienne 60%X 23%17% Nantes · 2
60%
23%
17%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Saint-Étienne vs Nantes (Ligue 2, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Saint-Étienne win 60%, draw 23%, Nantes win 17%. Expected goals (xG): Saint-Étienne 1.94, Nantes 0.77. Most likely score: 1-0 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 46%. Double chance: Saint-Étienne or draw 83%, Nantes or draw 40%. Prediction updated Thursday, 15 October 2026.
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Analysis: Saint-Étienne – Nantes
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: The 60% model probability for Saint-Étienne to win sets the stage for what looks like a dominant performance against Nantes. With a projection of 1.94 expected goals versus the visitors’ 0.77, the numbers heavily tilt toward a Saint-Étienne victory. The tension lies in whether the home side can convert their statistical edge into a clean sheet win, especially given their ability to score in 9 consecutive league matches and their historical 68% home win rate.
Saint-Étienne's control through possession will clash with Nantes's high press, but the latter's style may not be enough to overcome the significant gap in xPoints and xGA metrics. The home side's defensive acumen, allowing only 0.62 expected goals against per match, contrasts starkly with Nantes's 0.95, suggesting a tough night ahead for the visitors.
Despite a slight 51% lean towards over 2.5 total goals, the more compelling narrative centers on whether Nantes can breach the hosts' defense. The slim 46% probability of both teams scoring underscores this uncertainty. Saint-Étienne's current form and tactical execution are what matter most here.
For those looking to place a wager, the odds reflect an intriguing value proposition: Saint-Étienne at 1.7 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, where the model suggests a 1% edge. This is not a guarantee, but the numbers paint a clear picture of value in backing the hosts at these odds.
In essence, the model and metrics forecast a likely 1-0 or 2-0 Saint-Étienne victory. Their form and statistical dominance make them the firm favorites, presenting a betting opportunity that savvy punters may find hard to overlook.
Saint-ÉtienneForm WLDWW
League ranking xG #2xGA #1xT #8xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Augustine BoakyeRWxG 0.15 · xT 0.16
- Kévin PedroRWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.06
- Irvin Charly Jose CardonaRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.19
NantesForm WLWDL
League ranking xG #8xGA #3xT #3xP/match #6Points #14
Key players
- Herba GuirassyLWxG 0.31 · xT 0.08
- Ryad HachemLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.38
- Kelvin AmianCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.14
Final score
1 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Saint-Étienne 60% · Draw 23% · Nantes 17%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Saint EtienneBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,37fair 6,42-16 %
MissMatchresultat - NantesBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 13,82fair 40,21-66 %
MissMatch prediction: Saint-Étienne – Nantes
Predicted score matrix
Nantes →
Saint-Étienne →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–14.8%
0–22.0%
0–30.5%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–012.7%
1–110.2%
1–23.8%
1–31.0%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–012.6%
2–19.6%
2–23.7%
2–30.9%
2–4+0.2%
3
3–08.1%
3–16.2%
3–22.4%
3–30.6%
3–4+0.1%
4+
4+–06.1%
4+–14.7%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-013%
- 2.2-013%
- 3.1-110%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.3-08%
Expected goals
1,94–0,77
Both teams to score
46%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@2.05EV+1%
Over 2,551%
@1.80
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Saint-Étienne to win60%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Augustine Boakye to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score46%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Augustine Boakye to score33%
- Saïdou Sow to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Saint-Étienne60% probability@1.75LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds
- 1 · Saint-Étienne60% probability@1.72BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
- 1 · Saint-Étienne60% probability@1.72NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Saint-Étienne | X | 2 · Nantes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 3% 1.72 | 3.65 | 4.20 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 4% 1.75 | 3.65 | 4.30 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 3% 1.72 | 3.65 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 2% 1.72 | 3.87 | 4.84 |
Odds updated 24 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+2 %
58 %53 %
1.68 → 1.72
X+2 %
28 %23 %
3.80 → 3.87
20 %
22 %17 %
4.82 → 4.84
Over 2,5+1 %
56 %51 %
1.77 → 1.80
Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 22/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Saint-Etienne have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
- Saint-Etienne win 68% of their home matches all-time (22 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Saint-Étienne
Nantes
Saint-Étienne (22–8)
Nantes (11–16)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Saint-Étienne
Nantes
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Saint-Étienne
Nantes
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Saint-Étienne | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 22 | 8 |
| xPoints | 16.6 | 12.7 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 0.62 | 0.95 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.42 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Saint-Étienne | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Field tilt | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 0.57 | 0.72 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 30 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.2 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.82 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 442 | 396 |
| Passes against per match | 373 | 293 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.3 | 28.4 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 39 |
| Set pieces | Saint-Étienne | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Corners per match | 4.1 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.1 | 4 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.78 | 0.61 |
| Other | Saint-Étienne | Nantes |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Gautier Larsonneur (Saint-Étienne) | Maxime Dupé (Nantes) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 14 | 13 |
| Save % | 64% | 52% |
| xG prevented | 34% | 46% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Saint-Étienne vs Nantes according to our model?
The model gives Saint-Étienne a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Saint-Étienne 60%, draw 23%, Nantes 17%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 46% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Saint-Étienne vs Nantes?
The model expects 1.94 goals (xG) for Saint-Étienne and 0.77 for Nantes, 2.71 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Saint-Étienne or draw (1X) 83%, Nantes or draw (X2) 40% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.