Pau vs Grenoble: Prediction & Odds (23 Oct 2026)

Ligue 223 October 2026Nouste Camp, Pau12°29 km/h

Läs på svenska

PauLow block & direct

2–1

GrenobleCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Pau (52%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.15 (+12 %)

1 · Pau 52%X 26%22% Grenoble · 2

52%

26%

22%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Pau vs Grenoble (Ligue 2, Friday, 23 October 2026): Pau win 52%, draw 26%, Grenoble win 22%. Expected goals (xG): Pau 1.69, Grenoble 1.06. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Pau or draw 78%, Grenoble or draw 48%. Prediction updated Thursday, 15 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Pau – Grenoble

Marcus Johansson · 22 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The stage is set for a tactical clash between Pau and Grenoble, with each team bringing distinct styles to the pitch. Pau, riding high on a three-match winning streak, will likely stick to their low defense and direct approach, aiming to control the game from the back and capitalize on swift transitions. Grenoble, on the other hand, thrives on counter-attacks and crossing opportunities, which might be hampered against a disciplined Pau side.

Despite the small head-to-head sample of just two previous meetings ending in draws, the current form of the hosts cannot be ignored. Pau's attacking prowess is reflected in their xG of 1.5 per match, significantly higher than Grenoble’s 0.74. Furthermore, with an xGA of 1.1 against Grenoble's 1.5, Pau not only creates more but also concedes less, giving them a solid edge in both defense and attack.

The numbers suggest a tight contest, but the probable scorelines lean towards a 1-1 or a narrow win for Pau, like 1-0 or 2-1. However, the model indicates a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals, supported by both teams' tendencies to find the net in over half of their matches. Although not typically a high-scoring fixture, the potential for goals is baked into the game's dynamics.

For those eyeing a betting angle, there’s value to be found. The over 2.5 goals market at odds of 2.0 with Betsafe offers a 4% edge, aligning with the model’s 52% probability. Alternatively, there’s also value in the over 3.5 goals at odds 3.5 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet, but this requires a leap of faith in a more open game than the tactical patterns suggest.

Pau

Form DLWWW

League ranking xG #6xGA #6xT #13xP/match #2Points #6

Key players

Babacar LeyeFxG 0.65 · xT -0.06
Cheikh FallCMxG 0.23 · xT 0.08
Jessy BenetCDMxG 0.17 · xT 0.07

Grenoble

Form LWDLL

League ranking xG #18xGA #13xT #18xP/match #16Points #15

Key players

Matthéo XantippeLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13
Samba DibaFxG 0.15 · xT 0.12
Lucas BernadouCAMxG 0.07 · xT 0.09

Final score

2 – 1

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Pau 52% · Draw 26% · Grenoble 22%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - PauBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,04fair 7,050 %

Miss

Matchresultat - GrenobleBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 15,67fair 17,86-12 %

Miss

Match prediction: Pau – Grenoble

Predicted score matrix

Grenoble →

Pau →

0–06.7%

0–16.4%

0–23.6%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–010.5%

1–111.8%

1–26.1%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.1%

2–19.7%

2–25.1%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–05.2%

3–15.5%

3–22.9%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.3%

4+–03.2%

4+–13.4%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-07%

Expected goals

1,69–1,06

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

117%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,548%

@1.73

Over 2,552%

@2.15EV+6%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Pau to win52%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Pau to win52%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Cheikh Fall to score28%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals52%
Cheikh Fall to score28%
Yohann Magnin to be booked26%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 2.552% probability@2.15PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
Over 2.552% probability@2.05BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
Over 2.552% probability@2.05NordicbetEV+6%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Pau	X	2 · Grenoble
Betsafe	1.85	3.30	4.00
LeoVegas	1.88	3.40	3.95
Nordicbet	1.85	3.30	4.00
Pinnacle	1.88	3.38	EV+ 1% 4.56

Odds updated 23 Oct, 12:36

Odds movement

1+3 %

54 %49 %

1.83 → 1.88

X+1 %

30 %25 %

3.35 → 3.38

2-1 %

23 %18 %

4.60 → 4.56

Over 2,5+1 %

48 %43 %

2.12 → 2.15

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Pau 0Draw 2Grenoble 0

Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

Key facts

Pau FC come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Pau

Grenoble

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Pau (11–9)

Grenoble (8–15)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Pau

Grenoble

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Pau

Grenoble

The teams in numbers

Performance	Pau	Grenoble
Points	14	8
xPoints	15.7	10
xG per match	1.5	0.74
xGA per match	1.1	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.12
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.36

Playing style	Pau	Grenoble
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.31
Field tilt	0.47	0.29
xT per match	1	0.64
xTA per match	1.3	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	24	17
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.17
Entries into the box per match	11	8
Entries into the box against	13	14
Pass completion %	0.76	0.75
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.71
Passes per match	343	305
Passes against per match	412	459
Switches of play per match	35.5	23.9
Long balls per match	44	30

Set pieces	Pau	Grenoble
xG from free kicks	0.22	0.02
Corners per match	4.2	3.1
Corners against per match	4.2	6.9
xG per corner	0.05	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.39	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.53

Other	Pau	Grenoble
Throw-in control	0.73	0.69

The goalkeepers	Brice Maubleu (Pau)	Alexandre Olliero (Grenoble)
Saves	33	34
Save %	79%	69%
xG prevented	51%	38%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Pau

Fixtures, form & tips

Grenoble

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Pau vs Grenoble according to our model?

The model gives Pau a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Pau 52%, draw 26%, Grenoble 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Pau vs Grenoble?

The model expects 1.69 goals (xG) for Pau and 1.06 for Grenoble, 2.75 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Pau or draw (1X) 78%, Grenoble or draw (X2) 48% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.