Dunkerque vs Metz: Prediction & Odds (23 Oct 2026)

Ligue 223 October 2026Stade Marcel-Tribut, Dunkerque12°13,6 mm53 km/h

Läs på svenska

DunkerquePossession & high press

1–1

MetzPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Dunkerque (38%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.24 (+15 %)

1 · Dunkerque 38%X 30%33% Metz · 2

38%

30%

33%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Dunkerque vs Metz (Ligue 2, Friday, 23 October 2026): Dunkerque win 38%, draw 30%, Metz win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Dunkerque 1.29, Metz 1.33. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Dunkerque or draw 67%, Metz or draw 62%. Prediction updated Thursday, 15 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Dunkerque – Metz

Oscar Nilsson · 22 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Despite Dunkerque's lack of wins in their two recent meetings with Metz, the model slightly favors the hosts with a 38% win probability. The expected goals are nearly even, Dunkerque at 1.29 and the visitors at 1.33, suggesting a tightly contested match is on the cards. The most probable scoreline is a 1-1 draw at 13%, but the model gives equal 9% chances to a 0-1 away win and a 1-0 home win.

Dunkerque's high pressing style could be hampered by the forecasted 14.2 mm of rain, likely suppressing goal-scoring opportunities and affecting both teams' possession-based approaches. With an over 2.5 goals probability at just 49%, and both teams to score at 54%, the game leans towards a low-scoring affair, potentially edging just under the 2.5 goal line. While Dunkerque currently trails Metz by two points in the standings, their xPoints suggest they have been slightly unlucky, hinting at potential for an upset or at least a share of the spoils.

From a betting perspective, the under 2.5 goals market stands out as offering value, priced at 2.08 with Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet, presenting a 7% edge according to the model which rates the probability of going under at 51%. This sharp angle aligns well with the playing conditions and tactical setups.

Dunkerque

Form DWLLW

League ranking xG #14xGA #12xT #12xP/match #14Points #11

Key players

Opa SangantéCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.11
Thomas RobinetFxG 0.42 · xT 0.11
Allan LinguetRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.15

Metz

Form WLDLW

League ranking xG #9xGA #16xT #4xP/match #17Points #7

Key players

Jean RuizCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
Jessy DeminguetCDMxG 0.17 · xT 0.33
Michel MboulaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09

Final score

1 – 1

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Dunkerque 38% · Draw 30% · Metz 33%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - DunkerqueBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,19fair 11,58-38 %

Miss

Matchresultat - MetzBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,13fair 10,89-44 %

Miss

Match prediction: Dunkerque – Metz

Predicted score matrix

Metz →

Dunkerque →

0–07.7%

0–19.3%

0–26.5%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.3%

1–09.0%

1–112.9%

1–28.3%

1–33.7%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.1%

2–18.0%

2–25.3%

2–32.4%

2–4+1.1%

3–02.6%

3–13.5%

3–22.3%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.5%

4+–01.1%

4+–11.5%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-19%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,29–1,33

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

118%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,551%

@2.24EV+11%

Over 2,549%

@1.68

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Dunkerque or draw (1X)63%
Under 3.5 goals73%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Dunkerque or draw (1X)63%
Under 2.5 goals51%
Souleymane Keita to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals49%
Pape Moussa Fall to score28%
Jessy Deminguet to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.551% probability@2.24PinnacleEV+15%reference odds
1 · Dunkerque38% probability@2.95PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
Under 1.526% probability@4.25BetsafeEV+11%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Dunkerque	X	2 · Metz
Betsafe	EV+ 3% 2.72	EV+ 0% 3.40	2.32
LeoVegas	EV+ 4% 2.75	EV+ 2% 3.45	2.35
Nordicbet	EV+ 3% 2.72	EV+ 0% 3.40	2.32
Pinnacle	EV+ 11% 2.95	EV+ 9% 3.68	2.31

Odds updated 23 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1+6 %

36 %31 %

2.79 → 2.95

X+5 %

29 %24 %

3.51 → 3.68

2-4 %

43 %38 %

2.41 → 2.31

Over 2,5-2 %

59 %54 %

1.72 → 1.68

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Dunkerque 0Draw 0Metz 2

Goals: 2–5 (⌀ 3,5)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Dunkerque

Metz

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Dunkerque (13–15)

Metz (15–13)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Dunkerque

Metz

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Dunkerque

Metz

The teams in numbers

Performance	Dunkerque	Metz
Points	11	13
xPoints	10.8	9.9
xG per match	1.1	1.4
xGA per match	1.5	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.27	0.39
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.31	0.23

Playing style	Dunkerque	Metz
Build-up efficiency	0.31	0.32
Field tilt	0.43	0.52
xT per match	1	1.3
xTA per match	1.3	0.98
Won balls, offensive half	23	25
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.19
Entries into the box per match	9	12
Entries into the box against	13	12
Pass completion %	0.77	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.75
Passes per match	346	396
Passes against per match	384	351
Switches of play per match	40.7	36.7
Long balls per match	45	54

Set pieces	Dunkerque	Metz
xG from free kicks	0.04	0.07
Corners per match	5.1	4.5
Corners against per match	5.1	5.4
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.54

Other	Dunkerque	Metz
Throw-in control	0.73	0.72

The goalkeepers	Mohamet Airam Ramos Wade (Dunkerque)	Jonathan Fischer (Metz)
Saves	22	31
Save %	71%	76%
xG prevented	48%	49%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Dunkerque

Fixtures, form & tips

Metz

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Dunkerque vs Metz according to our model?

The model gives Dunkerque a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Dunkerque 38%, draw 30%, Metz 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 49% and under at 51%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Dunkerque vs Metz?

The model expects 1.29 goals (xG) for Dunkerque and 1.33 for Metz, 2.62 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Dunkerque or draw (1X) 67%, Metz or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 70%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.