Nancy vs Laval: Prediction & Odds (23 Oct 2026)

Ligue 223 October 2026Stade Marcel Picot, Nancy11°4,3 mm33 km/h

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NancyPossession control

1–0

LavalPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Nancy (52%)Best value by the model: 2 · Laval @ 5.06 (+11 %)

1 · Nancy 52%X 26%22% Laval · 2

52%

26%

22%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Nancy vs Laval (Ligue 2, Friday, 23 October 2026): Nancy win 52%, draw 26%, Laval win 22%. Expected goals (xG): Nancy 1.72, Laval 1.07. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%. Double chance: Nancy or draw 78%, Laval or draw 48%. Prediction updated Thursday, 15 October 2026.

Bet on this match

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Analysis: Nancy – Laval

Sofia Andersson · 22 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Nancy's recent form is a sharp contrast to their head-to-head record against Laval. The hosts are on a streak of three consecutive victories, an indicator of their current strength, especially when combined with their superior expected goals (1.72 vs. Laval's 1.07). Despite this, history shows the teams have struggled to separate themselves in the few matches they have played since 2023, albeit from a very small sample size.

The numbers underline Nancy's defensive solidity with an average of just 0.81 expected goals against per match, compared to Laval's 1.4. This defensive edge, coupled with their offensive capabilities, positions them as clear favorites. The model assigns a 52% probability for a Nancy win, making their case stronger when combined with their overall points and xPoints advantage over Laval.

Yet, the betting market reveals an intriguing opportunity on the other side. The visitors are priced at 4.8 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, and 4.75 with LeoVegas, demonstrating a potential value bet given the model's assigned 22% probability for a Laval win. This suggests a 6% edge with Betsafe and Nordicbet, and a 5% edge with LeoVegas, highlighting the potential for an upset.

The forecast of 3.3 mm of rain could play a role in dampening the attacking flows of both sides, though this has already been considered in the model's computations. With a 53% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 54% probability for both teams to score, the expectation leans slightly towards a more open game, despite the weather.

Taking all factors into account, a tight 1-0 or 2-1 victory for Nancy seems the most plausible outcome. However, given the attractive odds on a Laval win, there might be merit in a speculative punt on the visitors pulling off a surprise, particularly for those looking to capitalize on value discrepancies in the market.

Nancy

Form LLWWW

League ranking xG #1xGA #2xT #5xP/match #3Points #5

Key players

Brandon BokangouFxG 0.63 · xT 0.03
Enzo TacafredLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.17
Nehemiah Fernandez-VelizRBxG 0.20 · xT 0.11

Laval

Form LLDLD

League ranking xG #4xGA #8xT #6xP/match #12Points #18

Key players

William BiandaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.15
Mathis HoudayerCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.12
Sam SannaCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.15

Final score

1 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Nancy 52% · Draw 26% · Laval 22%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - LavalBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 15,84fair 17,67-10 %

Miss

Matchresultat - NancyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,19fair 6,81-24 %

Miss

Match prediction: Nancy – Laval

Predicted score matrix

Laval →

Nancy →

0–06.5%

0–16.2%

0–23.5%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.4%

1–010.3%

1–111.6%

1–26.0%

1–32.1%

1–4+0.7%

2–09.1%

2–19.7%

2–25.2%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.6%

3–05.2%

3–15.6%

3–23.0%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.3%

4+–13.6%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-06%

Expected goals

1,72–1,07

Both teams to score

54%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

415%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.04

Over 2,553%

@1.81

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Nancy to win52%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Nancy to win52%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Pape Meïssa Ba to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score54%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Pape Meïssa Ba to score27%
William Ludovic Brandon Bianda to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Laval22% probability@5.06PinnacleEV+11%reference odds
2 · Laval22% probability@4.70BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
2 · Laval22% probability@4.70LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Nancy	X	2 · Laval
Betsafe	1.62	3.75	EV+ 4% 4.70
LeoVegas	1.67	3.75	EV+ 4% 4.70
Nordicbet	1.62	3.75	EV+ 4% 4.70
Pinnacle	1.68	EV+ 3% 3.96	EV+ 11% 5.06

Odds updated 23 Oct, 12:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

62 %57 %

1.65 → 1.68

X0 %

26 %21 %

3.95 → 3.96

2+5 %

20 %15 %

4.84 → 5.06

Over 2,5+1 %

56 %51 %

1.79 → 1.81

Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Nancy 0Draw 1Laval 1

Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

Key facts

Nancy come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nancy

Laval

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Nancy (11–8)

Laval (13–20)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nancy

Laval

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nancy

Laval

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nancy	Laval
Points	16	6
xPoints	15.4	11.2
xG per match	1.7	1.6
xGA per match	0.81	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.32	0.16
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.45

Playing style	Nancy	Laval
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.32
Field tilt	0.68	0.58
xT per match	1.3	1.2
xTA per match	0.57	1
Won balls, offensive half	31	23
Pressing intensity	0.19	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.26
Entries into the box per match	16	13
Entries into the box against	7	10
Pass completion %	0.78	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.72
Passes per match	419	429
Passes against per match	323	308
Switches of play per match	23	34.7
Long balls per match	36	40

Set pieces	Nancy	Laval
xG from free kicks	0.16	0.35
Corners per match	4.3	5.7
Corners against per match	3.4	4
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.52
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.58

Other	Nancy	Laval
Throw-in control	0.78	0.74

The goalkeepers	Enzo Basilio (Nancy)	Mamadou Samassa (Laval)
Saves	17	23
Save %	71%	62%
xG prevented	45%	50%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Nancy

Fixtures, form & tips

Laval

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nancy vs Laval according to our model?

The model gives Nancy a 52% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nancy 52%, draw 26%, Laval 22%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Nancy vs Laval?

The model expects 1.72 goals (xG) for Nancy and 1.07 for Laval, 2.79 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Nancy or draw (1X) 78%, Laval or draw (X2) 48% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.