Annecy vs Nancy: Prediction & Odds (16 Oct 2026)

Ligue 216 October 2026Parc des Sports, Annecy14°5 km/h

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AnnecyPossession control

1–2

NancyPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Annecy (38%)

1 · Annecy 38%X 29%33% Nancy · 2

38%

29%

33%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Annecy vs Nancy (Ligue 2, Friday, 16 October 2026): Annecy win 38%, draw 29%, Nancy win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Annecy 1.18, Nancy 1.29. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Annecy or draw 67%, Nancy or draw 62%. Prediction updated Thursday, 8 October 2026.

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Analysis: Annecy – Nancy

Marcus Johansson · 15 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

TEXT:

Since 2023, Annecy and Nancy have only faced each other twice, with Annecy winning one and losing one. This limited head-to-head record means it's less instructive than current form and expected goals. Both teams favor a possession-based approach, setting the stage for a tactical battle where control of the ball will be crucial. While Annecy have been consistent in finding the net, scoring in 12 straight league games, Nancy's stats suggest they are slightly better overall, especially defensively.

Annecy's 38% win probability suggests a slight edge, yet Nancy's statistical profile reveals more potency. Nancy's stronger xG figures at 1.7 per match compared to Annecy's 1.3, paired with a superior xGA of 0.86, highlight a potentially more efficient setup. Despite this, the hosts' ability to consistently score can't be overlooked, setting up a close contest. The most likely scorelines of 1-1 and 1-0 reflect a tight game, with Nancy's defense likely making the difference.

The expected goals for both teams (Annecy 1.18, Nancy 1.29) emphasize parity, but Nancy appears slightly sharper in translating possession into scoring opportunities. Annecy's consistency in scoring, however, could counterbalance Nancy's defensive edge, suggesting the draw is a viable result at 29%. Both sides' inclination for possession may lead to a tactical standoff rather than a high-scoring affair, supporting the model's 45% chance of over 2.5 goals.

From a betting perspective, the sharpest angle comes with LeoVegas' odds for under 3.5 goals at 1.32. The model's 76% confidence in an under 3.5 goals outcome indicates a slight value edge at 1%. This leans toward a controlled, low-scoring match, where possession and strategy overshadow goalmouth action.

Annecy

Form DWLLW

League ranking xG #9xGA #11xT #15xP/match #5Points #6

Key players

Axel DrouhinCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.05
Ahmed KashiCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
Clément BillemazLWxG 0.12 · xT 0.11

Nancy

Form WLLWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #3xT #3xP/match #3Points #5

Key players

Brandon BokangouFxG 0.63 · xT 0.03
Walid BouabdelliCAMxG 0.17 · xT 0.08
Enzo TacafredLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.18

Final score

1 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Annecy 38% · Draw 29% · Nancy 33%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - FC AnnecyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,88fair 14,14-30 %

Miss

Matchresultat - NancyBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 8,20fair 11,84-31 %

Miss

Match prediction: Annecy – Nancy

Predicted score matrix

Nancy →

Annecy →

0–08.9%

0–110.6%

0–27.1%

0–33.0%

0–4+1.3%

1–09.6%

1–113.3%

1–28.3%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.5%

2–05.9%

2–17.6%

2–24.9%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.9%

3–02.3%

3–13.0%

3–21.9%

3–30.8%

3–4+0.4%

4+–00.9%

4+–11.1%

4+–20.7%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-111%
3.1-010%
4.0-09%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,18–1,29

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,555%

@1.84EV+2%

Over 2,545%

@2.02

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Annecy or draw (1X)61%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Annecy or draw (1X)61%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Kadan Christophe Young to score24%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Kadan Christophe Young to score24%
Walid Bouabdelli to be booked23%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

1 · Annecy38% probability@2.98PinnacleEV+12%reference odds
1 · Annecy38% probability@2.90BetsafeEV+9%reference odds
1 · Annecy38% probability@2.90LeoVegasEV+9%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Annecy	X	2 · Nancy
Betsafe	EV+ 9% 2.90	3.10	2.35
LeoVegas	EV+ 9% 2.90	3.25	2.35
Nordicbet	EV+ 9% 2.90	3.10	2.35
Pinnacle	EV+ 12% 2.98	3.40	2.42

Odds updated 16 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Nancy win since 14 October — the odds have shortened from 2.59 to 2.42 (−7%).

1+12 %

40 %30 %

2.67 → 2.98

X+1 %

33 %23 %

3.35 → 3.40

2-7 %

42 %32 %

2.59 → 2.42

Over 2,5+3 %

53 %43 %

1.96 → 2.02

Pinnacle · 12 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Annecy 1Draw 0Nancy 1

Goals: 6–3 (⌀ 4,5)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

Key facts

FC Annecy have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Annecy

Nancy

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Annecy (10–9)

Nancy (9–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Annecy

Nancy

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Annecy

Nancy

The teams in numbers

Performance	Annecy	Nancy
Points	13	13
xPoints	12	13.2
xG per match	1.3	1.7
xGA per match	1.4	0.86
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.3	0.34
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.15	0.25

Playing style	Annecy	Nancy
Build-up efficiency	0.28	0.34
Field tilt	0.41	0.68
xT per match	0.88	1.3
xTA per match	1.3	0.58
Won balls, offensive half	28	31
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.19
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.24	0.23
Entries into the box per match	10	16
Entries into the box against	11	8
Pass completion %	0.7	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.66	0.74
Passes per match	300	421
Passes against per match	408	324
Switches of play per match	16.3	22.5
Long balls per match	26	35

Set pieces	Annecy	Nancy
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.18
Corners per match	6	4
Corners against per match	5	3.4
xG per corner	0.02	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.85	0.63

Other	Annecy	Nancy
Throw-in control	0.76	0.76

The goalkeepers	Florian Escales (Annecy)	Enzo Basilio (Nancy)
Saves	20	15
Save %	71%	71%
xG prevented	40%	46%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Annecy

Fixtures, form & tips

Nancy

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Annecy vs Nancy according to our model?

The model gives Annecy a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Annecy 38%, draw 29%, Nancy 33%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Annecy vs Nancy?

The model expects 1.18 goals (xG) for Annecy and 1.29 for Nancy, 2.47 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Annecy or draw (1X) 67%, Nancy or draw (X2) 62% and no draw (12) 71%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.