01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Saint-Étienne or draw (X2)70%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Ligue 2Stade Bauer, Saint-Ouen
Läs på svenska
Red StarPossession control0–1
Saint-ÉtiennePossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Saint-Étienne (40%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.09 (+3 %)
Red Star vs Saint-Étienne · Ligue 2
1 · Red Star 32%X 28%40% Saint-Étienne · 2
32%
28%
40%
Prediction summary
Final score 0–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Red Star vs Saint-Étienne (Ligue 2, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Red Star win 32%, draw 28%, Saint-Étienne win 40%. Expected goals (xG): Red Star 1.21, Saint-Étienne 1.49. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Red Star or draw 60%, Saint-Étienne or draw 68%. Prediction updated Thursday, 8 October 2026.
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Analysis: Red Star – Saint-Étienne
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: Red Star's current momentum is hard to overlook: four straight wins have invigorated the team and boosted their confidence. Yet, when delving into the numbers, Saint-Étienne appears to hold a slight edge. The visitors not only boast a better expected goals (xG) tally per match at 1.8 compared to Red Star's 1.6, but they also have a lower expected goals against (xGA) rate of 0.65, indicating a more robust defense.
Despite Red Star's winning streak, the model probabilities favor Saint-Étienne with a 40% chance of victory. That's not to say that the hosts won't put up a fight; their possession-control style mirrors that of Saint-Étienne, setting the stage for a tactical battle. However, Saint-Étienne's ability to consistently find the net — scoring in eight consecutive league matches — lends credence to the 1-2 scoreline being a plausible outcome.
The head-to-head record since 2023 is even, with each team securing one win in their two encounters. Given this small sample size, it doesn't significantly tip the scales, especially when weighed against the season-long form and expected goals data. The draw probability stands at 28%, with the 1-1 scoreline deemed the most likely at 12%, but the visiting team's attacking prowess suggests they might edge it.
Saint-Étienne's slight statistical superiority, especially in xG and xGA, points to a narrow victory. The over 2.5 goals market is finely poised at 51%, and with both teams inclined to score (55%), the match could see goals. For bettors seeking value, this looks like the most attractive angle based on the model's prediction.
Red StarForm LWWWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #5xP/match #4Points #2
Key players
- Damien DurandLWxG 0.53 · xT 0.24
- Samuel RenelCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.13
- Dylan DurivauxCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.17
Saint-ÉtienneForm WWLDW
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #7xP/match #2Points #1
Key players
- Augustine BoakyeRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.18
- Kévin PedroRWBxG 0.11 · xT 0.07
- Irvin Charly Jose CardonaRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.20
Final score
0 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Red Star 32% · Draw 28% · Saint-Étienne 40%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Saint EtienneBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,44fair 8,65-26 %
MissMatchresultat - Red Star 93Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,66fair 13,08-34 %
MissMatch prediction: Red Star – Saint-Étienne
Predicted score matrix
Saint-Étienne →
Red Star →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–19.6%
0–27.5%
0–33.7%
0–4+1.9%
1
1–07.7%
1–112.4%
1–29.0%
1–34.5%
1–4+2.3%
2
2–04.9%
2–17.3%
2–25.5%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–02.0%
3–13.0%
3–22.2%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–00.8%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-27%
Expected goals
1,21–1,49
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@2.09EV+3%
Over 2,551%
@1.77
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Saint-Étienne or draw (X2)70%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Jakob Breum Martinsen to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Jakob Breum Martinsen to score21%
- Mahmoud Jaber to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.549% probability@2.09PinnacleEV+3%reference odds
- Under 3.571% probability@1.42LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds
- X · Draw28% probability@3.63PinnacleEV+1%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Red Star | X | 2 · Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| LeoVegas | 3.00 | 3.35 | 2.25 |
| Nordicbet | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| Pinnacle | 3.10 | EV+ 1% 3.63 | 2.25 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:37
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 15 October — the odds have shortened from 1.86 to 1.77 (−5%).
1-1 %
33 %28 %
3.14 → 3.10
X+7 %
30 %25 %
3.39 → 3.63
20 %
44 %39 %
2.24 → 2.25
Over 2,5-5 %
55 %50 %
1.86 → 1.77
Pinnacle · 14 recorded price levels · 15/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesRed Star 1Draw 0Saint-Étienne 1
Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 2,5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Key facts
- Red Star come into this round on 4 straight wins.
- Saint-Etienne have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Red Star
Saint-Étienne
Red Star (12–9)
Saint-Étienne (21–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Red Star
Saint-Étienne
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Red Star
Saint-Étienne
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Red Star | Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 19 |
| xPoints | 13.2 | 14.7 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 0.65 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.47 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| Playing style | Red Star | Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.3 |
| Field tilt | 0.58 | 0.64 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.83 | 0.56 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.25 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 14 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.84 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.8 |
| Passes per match | 377 | 459 |
| Passes against per match | 320 | 362 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.2 | 22 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Red Star | Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 6.4 | 4 |
| Corners against per match | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.43 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.76 |
| Other | Red Star | Saint-Étienne |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.68 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Gaetan Poussin (Red Star) | Gautier Larsonneur (Saint-Étienne) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 14 |
| Save % | 72% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 39% | 34% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Red Star vs Saint-Étienne according to our model?
The model gives Saint-Étienne a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Red Star 32%, draw 28%, Saint-Étienne 40%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Red Star vs Saint-Étienne?
The model expects 1.21 goals (xG) for Red Star and 1.49 for Saint-Étienne, 2.71 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Red Star or draw (1X) 60%, Saint-Étienne or draw (X2) 68% and no draw (12) 72%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.