01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Guingamp or draw (1X)65%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Ligue 2Stade de Roudourou, Guingamp14°4,3 mm21 km/h
Läs på svenska
GuingampBalanced & physical1–2
PauPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Guingamp (42%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.88 (+7 %)
Guingamp vs Pau · Ligue 2
1 · Guingamp 42%X 27%31% Pau · 2
42%
27%
31%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Guingamp vs Pau (Ligue 2, Friday, 16 October 2026): Guingamp win 42%, draw 27%, Pau win 31%. Expected goals (xG): Guingamp 1.55, Pau 1.42. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Guingamp or draw 69%, Pau or draw 58%. Prediction updated Thursday, 8 October 2026.
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Analysis: Guingamp – Pau
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
A tight clash is brewing between Guingamp and Pau FC, each side pushing for different objectives in Ligue 2. While the hosts may be slight favorites according to the model's 42% win probability, the visitors arrive with a strategic edge in possession control and a superior points tally, both in actual (11 vs 8) and expected terms (14.8 vs 10.9). Guingamp’s balanced and physical style might struggle to dominate against Pau's possession-based approach, which has been effective in previous encounters. Despite only two head-to-head matchups since 2023, with Pau clinching a win and a draw, the sample is too small to weigh heavily against Guingamp's current form.
The expected goals metric shows a narrow contest, with Guingamp projected at 1.55 and Pau closely behind at 1.42. This indicates potential for goals from both sides, reflected by the 60% probability of both teams finding the net. The model also favors over 2.5 goals at 57%, suggesting a likelihood of a more open game than the past meetings might suggest. Guingamp's xG and xGA figures (1.5 each) highlight a balance that could be disrupted by Pau's tighter defense, which boasts an xGA of just 0.97 per match.
Given these dynamics, a 1-1 draw emerges as the most likely scoreline at 12%, though a 2-1 win for either side sits close behind in probability. Despite Guingamp's favored status, the numbers reveal value in backing over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.8 with Betsafe and Nordicbet, offering a 3% edge. There's also value in the away win at odds of 3.3 with Betsafe, aligned with Pau's 31% chance of victory.
The sharpest angle lies in exploiting these odds, especially on the total goals market, where the numbers suggest an undervalued opportunity.
GuingampForm DDWLL
League ranking xG #5xGA #14xT #13xP/match #8Points #12
Key players
- Donatien GomisCBxG 0.14 · xT 0.08
- Dylan LouiserreCDMxG 0.18 · xT 0.04
- Albin DemouchyCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.09
PauForm DDLWW
League ranking xG #4xGA #4xT #8xP/match #1Points #8
Key players
- Babacar LeyeFxG 0.73 · xT -0.06
- Jessy BenetCDMxG 0.17 · xT 0.07
- Anthony BriançonCBxG 0.09 · xT 0.12
Final score
1 – 2
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Guingamp 42% · Draw 27% · Pau 31%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - PauBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,63fair 9,25+4 %
MissMatchresultat - GuingampBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,74fair 7,84-14 %
MissMatch prediction: Guingamp – Pau
Predicted score matrix
Pau →
Guingamp →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.5%
0–17.0%
0–25.2%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–07.6%
1–111.6%
1–28.0%
1–33.8%
1–4+1.9%
2
2–06.1%
2–18.7%
2–26.2%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–03.2%
3–14.5%
3–23.2%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.5%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.8%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,55–1,42
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@1.97
Over 2,557%
@1.88EV+3%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Guingamp or draw (1X)65%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Stanislas Maxime Tom Kielt to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Stanislas Maxime Tom Kielt to score25%
- Dylan Louiserre to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.557% probability@1.88PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
- Over 2.557% probability@1.80BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
- Over 2.557% probability@1.80LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Guingamp | X | 2 · Pau |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| LeoVegas | 2.18 | 3.35 | 3.10 |
| Nordicbet | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.51 | 3.22 |
Odds updated 16 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+8 %
46 %41 %
2.07 → 2.24
X-3 %
29 %24 %
3.62 → 3.51
2-3 %
33 %28 %
3.32 → 3.22
Over 2,5+2 %
54 %49 %
1.83 → 1.88
Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
2 matchesGuingamp 0Draw 1Pau 1
Goals: 3–4 (⌀ 3,5)
Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Guingamp
Pau
Guingamp (10–13)
Pau (9–8)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Guingamp
Pau
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Guingamp
Pau
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Guingamp | Pau |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 8 | 11 |
| xPoints | 10.9 | 14.8 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 0.97 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.14 | 0.34 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.31 | 0.06 |
| Playing style | Guingamp | Pau |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.5 |
| xT per match | 0.94 | 1.1 |
| xTA per match | 1 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 403 | 352 |
| Passes against per match | 368 | 396 |
| Switches of play per match | 37 | 37.3 |
| Long balls per match | 37 | 47 |
| Set pieces | Guingamp | Pau |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.59 |
| Other | Guingamp | Pau |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| The goalkeepers | Adrian Ortola (Guingamp) | Brice Maubleu (Pau) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 26 | 30 |
| Save % | 67% | 79% |
| xG prevented | 55% | 55% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Guingamp vs Pau according to our model?
The model gives Guingamp a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Guingamp 42%, draw 27%, Pau 31%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Guingamp vs Pau?
The model expects 1.55 goals (xG) for Guingamp and 1.42 for Pau, 2.97 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Guingamp or draw (1X) 69%, Pau or draw (X2) 58% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.