Laval vs Clermont: Prediction & Odds (16 Oct 2026)

Ligue 216 October 2026Stade Francis Le Basser, Laval15°15 km/h

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LavalPossession control

3–3

ClermontPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Laval (45%)

1 · Laval 45%X 30%25% Clermont · 2

45%

30%

25%

Prediction summary

Final score 3–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Laval vs Clermont (Ligue 2, Friday, 16 October 2026): Laval win 45%, draw 30%, Clermont win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Laval 1.44, Clermont 1.16. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Laval or draw 75%, Clermont or draw 55%. Prediction updated Thursday, 8 October 2026.

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Analysis: Laval – Clermont

Erik Lindberg · 15 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

TEXT: A clash between Laval and Clermont holds a subtle tension in its numbers. The hosts edge the model with a 45% win probability, but neither side can claim dominance with recent points showing Laval on 5 and Clermont breathing slightly ahead on 6. The matchup features two teams that embrace possession, promising a meticulously controlled battle in the middle of the park rather than a chaotic scramble for goals.

Despite their close points tally, Laval's expected goals (xG) per match stand at 1.3, significantly higher than Clermont's 0.79. This suggests the home side crafts more quality chances, even if recent form hasn't translated these opportunities into wins. Meanwhile, both teams are evenly matched in expected goals against (xGA), each conceding 1.4 per match, which underscores that neither side holds a clear defensive edge.

The head-to-head record since 2023 shows a small sample of four matches, with Laval failing to secure a victory and Clermont managing two draws and two wins. This may suggest a psychological edge for the visitors, but the sample size is too limited to overrule current form and xG data, which both tilt toward Laval's favor.

Interestingly, the expected goals within eight seconds of winning the ball are identical at 0.14 for both teams, hinting at a balanced approach in transition. This parity in quick chances could mean that a single mistake or moment of brilliance might tip the scales in this fixture.

For bettors looking for value, the standout angle is Laval's outright win at odds of 2.10 with Bet365. While the 1-1 scoreline is the most likely outcome at 13%, the model's inclination towards a 1-0 or 2-1 win for Laval makes their victory at these odds an intriguing play, especially as the match leans slightly under 2.5 goals at 48%.

Laval

Form LLLDL

League ranking xG #12xGA #8xT #10xP/match #15Points #18

Key players

Aboubacar LoCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.14
Sam SannaCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.14
William BiandaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.13

Clermont

Form DDDDL

League ranking xG #17xGA #9xT #14xP/match #14Points #17

Key players

Ethan Kena KabeyaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
Ivan MbahiaRBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
Vital Manuel N'SimbaLBxG 0.02 · xT 0.23

Final score

3 – 3

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Laval 45% · Draw 30% · Clermont 25%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - LavalBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 7,16fair 9,39-24 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Clermont Foot 63Båda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 11,03fair 14,47-24 %

Miss

Match prediction: Laval – Clermont

Predicted score matrix

Clermont →

Laval →

0–07.8%

0–18.2%

0–25.0%

0–31.9%

0–4+0.7%

1–010.3%

1–112.8%

1–27.2%

1–32.8%

1–4+1.0%

2–07.7%

2–18.9%

2–25.2%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.7%

3–03.7%

3–14.3%

3–22.5%

3–31.0%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.8%

4+–12.1%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.2-19%
4.0-18%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,44–1,16

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

225%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,552%

@1.79

Over 2,548%

@2.06

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Laval to win45%
Under 3.5 goals74%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Laval to win45%
Under 2.5 goals52%
Mathis Houdayer to score23%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals48%
Mathis Houdayer to score23%
Ethan Kena Kabeya to be booked22%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Laval	X	2 · Clermont
Betsafe	2.12	3.10	3.35
LeoVegas	2.15	3.25	3.30
Nordicbet	2.12	3.10	3.35
Pinnacle	2.18	3.24	3.61

Odds updated 16 Oct, 13:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

46 %41 %

2.14 → 2.18

X+1 %

32 %27 %

3.20 → 3.24

2+1 %

29 %24 %

3.57 → 3.61

Over 2,5+1 %

49 %44 %

2.03 → 2.06

Pinnacle · 5 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Laval 0Draw 2Clermont 2

Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 2,5)

Head-to-head based on Ligue 2 data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Laval

Clermont

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Laval (10–17)

Clermont (6–9)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Laval

Clermont

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Laval

Clermont

The teams in numbers

Performance	Laval	Clermont
Points	5	6
xPoints	8.9	8.9
xG per match	1.3	0.79
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.14	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.46	0.38

Playing style	Laval	Clermont
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.56	0.38
xT per match	1.1	0.91
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	21	19
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.19
Entries into the box per match	12	10
Entries into the box against	11	12
Pass completion %	0.79	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.72	0.74
Passes per match	425	421
Passes against per match	316	408
Switches of play per match	33.3	28.6
Long balls per match	39	34

Set pieces	Laval	Clermont
xG from free kicks	0.18	0.01
Corners per match	5.4	4.9
Corners against per match	4.1	4.2
xG per corner	0.01	0
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.31
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.55

Other	Laval	Clermont
Throw-in control	0.71	0.74

The goalkeepers	Mamadou Samassa (Laval)	Theo Guivarch (Clermont)
Saves	23	18
Save %	62%	69%
xG prevented	50%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Laval

Fixtures, form & tips

Clermont

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Laval vs Clermont according to our model?

The model gives Laval a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Laval 45%, draw 30%, Clermont 25%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Laval vs Clermont?

The model expects 1.44 goals (xG) for Laval and 1.16 for Clermont, 2.60 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Laval or draw (1X) 75%, Clermont or draw (X2) 55% and no draw (12) 70%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.