Metz vs Sochaux: Prediction & Odds (17 Oct 2026)

Ligue 217 October 2026Stade Saint-Symphorien, Metz12°2,4 mm18 km/h

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MetzPossession control

3–2

SochauxPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Metz (55%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 1.92 (+7 %)

1 · Metz 55%X 26%18% Sochaux · 2

55%

26%

18%

Prediction summary

Final score 3–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Metz vs Sochaux (Ligue 2, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Metz win 55%, draw 26%, Sochaux win 18%. Expected goals (xG): Metz 1.61, Sochaux 0.83. Most likely score: 1-0 (14%). Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 45%. Double chance: Metz or draw 82%, Sochaux or draw 45%. Prediction updated Thursday, 8 October 2026.

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Analysis: Metz – Sochaux

Sofia Andersson · 15 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Metz enters the contest with a 55% win probability, leading the model's lean. Despite Sochaux's unbeaten streak stretching to seven league matches, Metz's home advantage cannot be overlooked, boasting a 57% win rate across 21 home games. The most probable scoreline points to a narrow 1-0 victory for the hosts, reflecting their expected goals of 1.61 against Sochaux's 0.83. This suggests a tight match where the home side edges proceedings slightly.

The possession-centric styles of both teams, coupled with the xG metrics (1.3 for Metz versus 0.92 for Sochaux), hint towards a controlled, possibly low-scoring affair. The xGA figures further affirm this, with Sochaux slightly better defensively at 1.5 compared to Metz's 1.6. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 44%, underlining expectations of limited scoring opportunities.

Where the betting angle sharpens is the value on under 2.5 goals, with LeoVegas offering odds of 1.85 and Betsafe at 1.82. The model sees this as a 56% likelihood, providing a 4% and 2% edge respectively. With goals expected to be scarce, this under bet stands out as the most calculated play.

Metz

Form DWLDL

League ranking xG #11xGA #15xT #6xP/match #18Points #10

Key players

Idris MohamedCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.04
Jean RuizCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.08
Jessy DeminguetCDMxG 0.16 · xT 0.30

Sochaux

Form DDWDD

League ranking xG #16xGA #13xT #18xP/match #9Points #9

Key players

Mathieu PeybernesCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.08
Jonathan MexiqueCMxG 0.01 · xT 0.06
Dalangunypole GomisLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.08

Final score

3 – 2

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Metz 55% · Draw 26% · Sochaux 18%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - MetzBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,38fair 8,67-26 %

Hit

Matchresultat - SochauxBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,83fair 31,52-56 %

Miss

Match prediction: Metz – Sochaux

Predicted score matrix

Sochaux →

Metz →

0–09.1%

0–16.9%

0–23.0%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.2%

1–013.7%

1–112.0%

1–24.9%

1–31.3%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.3%

2–19.4%

2–23.9%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–06.0%

3–15.0%

3–22.1%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.1%

4+–03.5%

4+–12.9%

4+–21.2%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-014%
2.1-112%
3.2-011%
4.2-19%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,61–0,83

Both teams to score

45%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.92EV+1%

Over 2,544%

@1.93

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Metz to win55%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Metz to win55%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Pape Moussa Fall to score31%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score45%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Pape Moussa Fall to score31%
Mathieu Peybernes to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.556% probability@1.92PinnacleEV+7%reference odds
1 · Metz55% probability@1.88LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds
1 · Metz55% probability@1.85BetsafeEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Metz	X	2 · Sochaux
Betsafe	EV+ 2% 1.85	3.35	4.00
LeoVegas	EV+ 4% 1.88	3.45	3.95
Nordicbet	EV+ 2% 1.85	3.35	4.00
Pinnacle	1.76	3.77	4.74

Odds updated 17 Oct, 13:37

Odds movement

1-3 %

56 %51 %

1.81 → 1.76

X+6 %

28 %23 %

3.56 → 3.77

2+9 %

23 %18 %

4.36 → 4.74

Over 2,50 %

52 %47 %

1.93 → 1.93

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

FC Sochaux-Montbeliard are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Metz win 57% of their home matches all-time (21 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Metz

Sochaux

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Metz (12–11)

Sochaux (5–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Metz

Sochaux

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Metz

Sochaux

The teams in numbers

Performance	Metz	Sochaux
Points	10	11
xPoints	8.6	10.6
xG per match	1.3	0.92
xGA per match	1.6	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.32	0.2
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.19

Playing style	Metz	Sochaux
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.52	0.37
xT per match	1.2	0.58
xTA per match	0.95	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	24	19
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.18	0.17
Entries into the box per match	11	6
Entries into the box against	11	16
Pass completion %	0.8	0.73
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.7
Passes per match	392	301
Passes against per match	357	438
Switches of play per match	38.7	26.8
Long balls per match	55	34

Set pieces	Metz	Sochaux
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.02
Corners per match	4.4	3.4
Corners against per match	5.4	6.7
xG per corner	0.02	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.38	0.33
First touch, defensive corners %	0.51	0.6

Other	Metz	Sochaux
Throw-in control	0.72	0.66

The goalkeepers	Jonathan Fischer (Metz)	Mehdi Jeannin (Sochaux)
Saves	29	32
Save %	74%	84%
xG prevented	47%	67%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Metz

Fixtures, form & tips

Sochaux

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Metz vs Sochaux according to our model?

The model gives Metz a 55% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Metz 55%, draw 26%, Sochaux 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 45% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Metz vs Sochaux?

The model expects 1.61 goals (xG) for Metz and 0.83 for Sochaux, 2.44 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Metz or draw (1X) 82%, Sochaux or draw (X2) 45% and no draw (12) 74%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.