01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Reims to win53%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Ligue 2Stade Auguste-Delaune, Reims16°3,1 mm17 km/h
Läs på svenska
ReimsPossession control4–2
DijonPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Reims (53%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 1.69 (+2 %)
Reims vs Dijon · Ligue 2
1 · Reims 53%X 24%23% Dijon · 2
53%
24%
23%
Prediction summary
Final score 4–2. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Reims vs Dijon (Ligue 2, Friday, 16 October 2026): Reims win 53%, draw 24%, Dijon win 23%. Expected goals (xG): Reims 1.95, Dijon 1.16. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Reims or draw 77%, Dijon or draw 47%. Prediction updated Thursday, 8 October 2026.
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Analysis: Reims – Dijon
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Reims spearheading the possession and unbeaten in their last 15 league matches should dictate the rhythm against a resurgent Dijon side, who arrive with confidence from three straight victories. Despite the hosts' dominance in recent form, the numbers tell a more balanced story. Both teams prefer to control possession, which could lead to a midfield battle rather than a flurry of goals.
The model slightly favors Reims at 53% probability, with a tighter contest than the points gap suggests: Reims edge it by just two points. Expected goals (xG) hint at a close affair too — Reims at 1.95 vs. Dijon's 1.16. These figures, coupled with Reims' superior xGA, indicate a low-margin match, though the market suggests a lean towards over 2.5 goals with a 60% likelihood and both teams scoring at 59%.
While Reims have the psychological advantage of an unbeaten streak, Dijon's recent wins inject a sense of unpredictability. A narrow 2-1 win for Reims or a 1-1 draw both feel plausible given the statistical probabilities each at 10%. However, Dijon's slightly higher xG per match at 1.5 over Reims' 1.4 gives them a puncher's chance, despite their defensive vulnerability shown by an xGA of 1.6.
For those eyeing the betting market, the over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.68 with Betsafe and Nordicbet holds value with a 1% edge, as the model aligns it at 60% probability. Although not a glaring mispricing, it's a slight opportunity for those looking to exploit a market oversight. This angle, subtle yet concrete, wraps around the tension of two possession-centric sides vying for control but potentially allowing for goal opportunities.
ReimsForm WDWDD
League ranking xG #7xGA #10xT #9xP/match #7Points #4
Key players
- Yaya FofanaCAMxG 0.40 · xT 0.12
- Ange Martial TiaRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.16
- Samuel Junior KottoCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.06
DijonForm LDWWW
League ranking xG #6xGA #16xT #1xP/match #12Points #7
Key players
- Júlio Carolino TavaresRWxG 0.77 · xT 0.27
- Samy Olivier ChouchaneCMxG 0.52 · xT 0.20
- Ismaïl BouleghchaRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.20
Final score
4 – 2
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Reims 53% · Draw 24% · Dijon 23%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - ReimsBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,79fair 5,29-9 %
HitMatchresultat - Dijon FCOBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,68fair 14,88-28 %
MissMatch prediction: Reims – Dijon
Predicted score matrix
Dijon →
Reims →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.7%
0–14.9%
0–23.0%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–08.4%
1–110.4%
1–25.9%
1–32.3%
1–4+0.9%
2
2–08.4%
2–19.8%
2–25.7%
2–32.2%
2–4+0.8%
3
3–05.5%
3–16.4%
3–23.7%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–04.2%
4+–14.9%
4+–22.8%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.2-08%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
1,95–1,16
Both teams to score
59%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
@2.22
Over 2,560%
@1.69EV+2%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Reims to win53%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Yaya Kader Fofana to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score59%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Yaya Kader Fofana to score27%
- Jordan Marié to be booked24%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.560% probability@1.69PinnacleEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Reims | X | 2 · Dijon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.75 | 3.55 | 4.00 |
| LeoVegas | 1.77 | 3.75 | 4.00 |
| Nordicbet | 1.75 | 3.55 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.82 | 4.04 | 4.02 |
Odds updated 16 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
1+2 %
56 %51 %
1.77 → 1.82
X+4 %
26 %21 %
3.90 → 4.04
2-2 %
25 %20 %
4.09 → 4.02
Over 2,50 %
59 %54 %
1.69 → 1.69
Pinnacle · 11 recorded price levels · 14/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Reims are unbeaten in their last 15 league matches.
- Dijon come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Reims
Dijon
Reims (15–9)
Dijon (14–12)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Reims
Dijon
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Reims
Dijon
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Reims | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14 | 12 |
| xPoints | 11.4 | 10.3 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.18 | 0.2 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Reims | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.39 | 0.52 |
| xT per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 34 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 358 | 417 |
| Passes against per match | 417 | 372 |
| Switches of play per match | 26.4 | 31 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 45 |
| Set pieces | Reims | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| Corners per match | 2.6 | 3.4 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.3 | 0.6 |
| Other | Reims | Dijon |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.73 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Tom Hulsmann (Reims) | Paul Delecroix (Dijon) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 27 | 22 |
| Save % | 75% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 59% | 45% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Reims vs Dijon according to our model?
The model gives Reims a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Reims 53%, draw 24%, Dijon 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Reims vs Dijon?
The model expects 1.95 goals (xG) for Reims and 1.16 for Dijon, 3.11 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Reims or draw (1X) 77%, Dijon or draw (X2) 47% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.